The relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity at different stages of economic development: an analysis based on a dynamic threshold panel model

Zhang, Lin; Ma, Li

doi:10.1007/s11356-020-09485-7

Research Article
Published: 12 June 2020

The relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity at different stages of economic development: an analysis based on a dynamic threshold panel model

Lin Zhang^1,2,3,4 &
Li Ma^1,2,3

Environmental Science and Pollution Research volume 27, pages 33321–33338 (2020)Cite this article

287 Accesses
5 Citations
Metrics details

Abstract

Achieving the win-win goal of economic development and carbon intensity reduction, especially through industrial restructuring, is a challenge involving uncertainty and complexity. Determining which industry is green and whether it should be encouraged or limited at different stages of economic development are key issues. The relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity was systematically analyzed in 21 industrial sectors from 1971 to 2014 in eight developed countries, with different levels of economic development, using an extended dynamic threshold model. The results indicated that there is a relationship between industrial composition and carbon intensity, and the impact trajectory of industrial structure on carbon intensity can be classified into four categories: contaminated, pollution-clean, cleaning hysteresis, and enhanced cleaning. Each type of sectoral relationship between GDP and carbon intensity would change at certain economic levels. The change points for most sectors were US$ 525 and US$ 3904 GDP per capita, which represent the points at which a country enters the mid-industrialization and high-tech industrialization stages, respectively. Therefore, the government and enterprises must upgrade their industrial structure as the national GDP increases, adjust the proportion of sectors operating according to the industrial characteristics, and improve production technology through environmental regulation.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

43,34 €

Price includes VAT (Finland)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

References

Acaravci A, Ozturk I (2010) On the relationship between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions an-d economic growth in Europe. Energy 35(12):5412–5420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.009
Article Google Scholar
Agras J (1999) A dynamic approach to the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Ecol Econ 28(2):267–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(98)00040-8
Article Google Scholar
Ali W, Abdullah A, Azam M (2017) The dynamic relationship between structural change and CO₂ emissions in Malaysia: a cointegrating approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(14):12723–12739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.009
CAS Article Google Scholar
André FJ, Smulders S (2014) Fuel in growth when oil peaks: directed technological change and the limits to efficiency. Eur Econ Rev 69:18–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.10.007
Article Google Scholar
Ang BW (2006) Monitoring changes in economy-wide energy efficiency: from energy–GDP ratio to composite efficiency index ☆. Energy Policy34(5), 574-582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.011
Ang BW, Su B, Wang H (2016) A spatial–temporal decomposition approach to performance assessment in energy and emissions. Energy Econ 60:112–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.024
Article Google Scholar
Arellano M, Bond S (1991) Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58(2):277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
Article Google Scholar
Azomahou T, Laisney F, Van PN (2005) Economic development and CO₂ emissions: a nonparametric panel approach. J Public Econ 90(6):1347–1363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2005.09.005
Article Google Scholar
Brock W, Taylor S (2004) Economic growth and the environment: a review of theory and empirics. Handbook of Economic Growth, pp 1749-1821. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01028-2
Brock WA, Taylor MS (2005) Economic growth and the environment: a review of theory and empirics. Handbook of Economic Growth. 1, part b (05), 1749–1821. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01028-2
Cansino JM, Sánchez-Braza A, Rodríguez-Arévalo ML (2015) Driving forces of Spain’s CO₂ emissions: a LMDI decomposition approach. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 48:749–759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.011
CAS Article Google Scholar
Chenery HB, Syrquin M, Elkington H (1975) Patterns of development, 1950-1970, vol 75. Oxford University Press, London
Google Scholar
Cheng Z, Li L, Liu J (2017) Industrial structure, technical progress and carbon intensity in China’s p-rovinces. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 81:2935–2946. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.103
Article Google Scholar
Copeland BR, Taylor MS (2004) Trade, growth and the environment. J Econ Lit 42(1):7–71. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9823
Article Google Scholar
Davidsdottir B, Fisher M (2011) The odd couple: the relationship between state economic performan-ce and carbon emissions economic intensity. Energy Policy 39(8):4551–4562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.030
Article Google Scholar
de Bruyn SM (1997) Explaining the environmental Kuznets curve: structural change and international agreements in reducing sulphur emissions. Environ Dev Econ 2:485–503. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X97000260
Article Google Scholar
de Bruyn SM, van den Bergh JCJM, Opschoor JB (1998) Economic growth and emissions: reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental Kuznets curves. Ecol Econ 25(2):161–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00178-X
Article Google Scholar
Dicken P (2007) Global transformation: reshaping the global economic map of the 21st century (translated by Liu WD). The Commercial Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Dinda S (2004) Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: a survey. Ecol Econ 49(4):431–455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.011
Article Google Scholar
Dinda S, Coondoo D, Pal M (2000) Air quality and economic growth: an empirical study [J]. Ecol Econ 34(3):409–423. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00179-8
Article Google Scholar
Ding Y, Li F (2017) Examining the effects of urbanization and industrialization on carbon dioxide e=-mission: evidence from China’s provincial regions. Energy 125:533–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.156
Article Google Scholar
Duro JA, Alcántara V, Padilla E (2010) International inequality in energy intensity levels and the rol--e of production composition and energy efficiency: an analysis of OECD countries. Ecol Econ 69:2468–2474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.07.022
Article Google Scholar
Ebohon OJ, Ikeme AJ (2006) Decomposition analysis of CO₂ emission intensity between oil-producing and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries. Energy Policy 34(18):3599–3611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.10.012
Article Google Scholar
Feng D, Long R, Li Z et al (2016) Analysis of carbon emission intensity, urbanization and energy mix: evidence from China. Nat Hazards 82(2):1375–1391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2248-6
Article Google Scholar
Fernando Y, Wei LH (2017) Impacts of energy management practices on energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction: a survey of Malaysian manufacturing firms. Resour Conserv Recycl 126:62–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.07.023
Article Google Scholar
Friedl B, Getzner M (2003) Determinants of CO₂ emissions in a small open economy. Ecol Econ 45(1):133–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00008-9
Article Google Scholar
Fujii H, Managi S (2013) Which industry is greener? An empirical study of nine industries in OECD countries. Energy Policy 57:381–388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.011
Article Google Scholar
Gale LR, Mendez JA (1998) The empirical relationship between trade, growth and the environment. Int Rev Econ Financ 7(1):53–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1059-0560(99)80016-1
Article Google Scholar
Galeotti M, Lanza A (2005) Desperately seeking environmental Kuznets. Environ Model Softw 20(11):1379–1388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.09.018
Article Google Scholar
Galeotti M, Lanza A, Pauli F (2006) Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ emissions: a robustness exercise ☆. Ecol Econ 57(1):152–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.031
Article Google Scholar
Geng Y (2011) Eco-indicators: improve China’s sustainability targets. Nature 477:162. https://doi.org/10.1038/477162b
CAS Article Google Scholar
Greene WH (2001) Econometric analysis, 7th edn. Pearson Education, London. https://doi.org/10.2307/2291031
Book Google Scholar
Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1991) Environmental impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER. Working paper 3914. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914
Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1993) Environmental impacts of the North American free trade agr-eement. In: Garber P (ed) The U.S. –Mexico free trade agreement. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 13–56
Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1994) Economic growth and the environment. NBER Working Papers 110(2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
Hansen BE (1996) Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. Econometrica:413–430. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171789
Hansen BE (1999) Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing and inference. J Econ 93(2):345–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1
Article Google Scholar
Hansen BE (2000) Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica 68:575–603. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00124
Article Google Scholar
He J, Richard P (2010) Environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ in Canada. Ecol Econ 69(5):1083–1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.030
Article Google Scholar
Heil MT, Selden TM (1999) Panel stationarity with structural breaks: carbon emissions and GDP. Appl Econ Lett 6(4):223–225. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048599353384
Article Google Scholar
Hettige H, Mani M, Wheeler D (2004) Industrial pollution in economic development: the environmental Kuznets curve revisited. J Dev Econ 62(2):445–476. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00092-4
Article Google Scholar
Hilton FGH, Levinson A (1998) Factoring the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from automoti-ve lead emissions. J Environ Econ Manag 35:126–141. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1998.1023
Article Google Scholar
Holtz-Eakin D, Selden T (1995) Stoking the fires: CO₂ emissions and economic growth. J Publ Econ 57:85–101. https://doi.org/10.3386/w4248
Article Google Scholar
Hou J, Teo TSH, Zhou F, Lim MK, Chen H (2018) Does industrial green transformation successfully facilitate a decrease in carbon intensity in China? An environmental regulation perspective. J Clean Prod 184:1060–1071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.311
Article Google Scholar
International Energy Agency (2018) Global Energy & CO₂ Status Report-The latest trends in energy and emissions in 2018. https://www.iea.org/geco/
International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC version 3.2) (2004) New York: United Nations
Iwata H, Okada K, Samreth S (2011) A note on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂: a pooled mean group approach. Appl Energy 88(5):1986–1996. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.11.005
Article Google Scholar
Kijima M, Nishide K, Ohyama A (2010) Economic models for the environmental Kuznets curve: a survey. J Econ Dyn Control 34(7):1187–1201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2010.03.010
Article Google Scholar
Li X, Fan T (2010) Analysis of carbon emissions from China’s petrochemical industries using the LMDI method. International Conference on E-product E-service & E-entertainment. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEEE.2010.5660787
Li H, Wu L (2014) Analysis of Hubei Province Industry’s carbon emissions based on the LMDI. Appl Mech Mater 675-677:1865–1868. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.675-677.1865
CAS Article Google Scholar
Lin J, Yan Y, Cai WJ et al (2018) A review of carbon emission reduction contribution sharing for the fair realization of the Paris agreement goals. Adv Clim Chang Res 14(5):529–539 (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Liu YJ (2015) Research on the development of low carbon green economy in Korea. Jilin University, Changchun (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Liu XZ, Gao CC, Song Y (2017) Temporal-spatial carbon emission patterns caused by fossil energy consumption at the city level in Hunan Province, China and the factors driving their composition. Acta Ecol Sin 37(7):2476–2487 (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Lu Y, Cui P, Li D (2016) Carbon emissions and policies in China’s building and construction industr-y: evidence from 1994 to 2012. Build Environ 95:94–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2015.09.011
Article Google Scholar
Managi S, Hibki A, Tsurumi T (2009) Does trade openness improve environmental quality? J Environ Econ Manag 58(3):346–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2009.04.008
Article Google Scholar
Marsiglio S, Ansuategi A, Gallastegui MC (2016) The environmental Kuznets curve and the structural change hypothesis. Environ Resour Econ 63(2):265–288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9942-9
Article Google Scholar
Mulder P, de Groot H, Pfeiffer B (2014) Dynamics and determinants of energy intensity in the service sector: a cross-country analysis 1980–2005. Ecol Econ 100:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.01.016
Article Google Scholar
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2002) Indicators to measure decoupling of environmental pressure from economic growth
Panayotou T (1993) Green markets: the economics of sustainable development. J Asian Stud 52(3):697
Article Google Scholar
Panayotou T (1994) The population, environment, and development nexus. Popul Dev 1994(5):148–180
Google Scholar
Panayotou T (1997) Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool. Environ Dev Econ 2(4):465–484. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X97000259
Article Google Scholar
Richmond AK, Kaufmann RK (2006) Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions? Ecol Econ 56(2):176–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.01.011
Article Google Scholar
Selden TM, Song D (1995) Neoclassical growth, the J curve for abatement, and the inverted U curv-e for pollution. J Environ Econ Manag 29(2):162–168. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1995.1038
Article Google Scholar
Shafic N, Bandyopadhyay S (1992) Economic growth and environmental quality. Time-series and cross-country evidence. Policy Research Working Paper no.904, World Development Report (The World Bank)
Sun JW, Malaska P (1998) CO₂ emission intensities in developed countries 1980–1994. Energy 23(2):105–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(97)00063-7
CAS Article Google Scholar
Suri V, Chapman D (1998) Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets curve. Ecol Econ 25(2):195–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00180-8
Article Google Scholar
Timmer MP (2012) The world input–output database (WIOD): contents, sources and methods. WIOD working paper number 10. http://www.wiod.org/publications/papers/wiod10
Tsurumi T, Managi S (2010) Decomposition of the environmental Kuznets curve: scale, technique, and composition effects. Environ Econ Policy Study 11:19–36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-009-0159-4
Article Google Scholar
Wang Z, Zhang B, Liu T (2016) Empirical analysis on the factors influencing national and regional carbon intensity in China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 55:34–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.077
Article Google Scholar
Weber CL (2009) Measuring structural change and energy use: decomposition of the US economy from 1997 to 2002. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(4):1561–1570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.12.027
Wu GH (2017) Climate policy, trade and carbon dioxide emissions. Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Xu SC, Han HM, Zhang WW, Zhang QQ, Long RY, Chen H, He ZX (2017) Analysis of regional contributions to the national carbon intensity in China in different five-year plan periods. J Clean Prod 145:209–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.044
Article Google Scholar
Zhang MZ (2017) Research on carbon emission effects of economic growth and industrial structure changes. Shandong University, Jinan (in Chinese)
Google Scholar
Zhang W, Li K, Zhou D, Zhang W, Gao H (2016) Decomposition of intensity of energy-related CO₂ emission in Chinese provinces using the LMDI method. Energy Policy 92:369–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.026
Article Google Scholar
Zhao R, Huang X, Ying L et al (2015) Carbon emission of regional land use and its decomposition analysis: case study of Nanjing City, China. Chin Geogr Sci 25(2):198–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-014-0714-1
Article Google Scholar
Zhu L, Zhang Z (2011) Decomposition analysis of carbon emission intensity in Shanghai City. Res Environ Sci 24(1):20–26
Google Scholar

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0602803) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41371142) and the China Scholarship Council. Meanwhile, the authors would like to thank the editor of this journal and reviewers for their detailed and helpful comments.

Author information

Affiliations

Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, People’s Republic of China
Lin Zhang & Li Ma
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, People’s Republic of China
Lin Zhang & Li Ma
University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049, People’s Republic of China
Lin Zhang & Li Ma
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment in University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Lin Zhang

Authors

Lin Zhang
View author publications
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
Li Ma
View author publications
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Lin Zhang and Li Ma. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Lin Zhang, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Li Ma.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Highlights

• The proportion change of the industrial structure mainly affects carbon intensity.

• Different sectors have different relationships with carbon intensity’s evolution.

• The improvement of economic development level can significantly promote the reduction of carbon intensity brought by industrial structure adjustment.

Responsible Editor: Nicholas Apergis

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zhang, L., Ma, L. The relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity at different stages of economic development: an analysis based on a dynamic threshold panel model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 33321–33338 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09485-7

Download citation

Received: 03 March 2020
Accepted: 27 May 2020
Published: 12 June 2020
Issue Date: September 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09485-7

Keywords

Industrial structure
Carbon intensity
Dynamic threshold panel model