Skip to main content

Relationship between inward FDI and environmental degradation for Pakistan: an exploration of pollution haven hypothesis through ARDL approach

Abstract

In many developing countries, rising pollution and FDI inflows are positively correlated. This paper explores the existence of pollution haven hypothesis in Pakistan by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test on yearly data from 1971 to 2014 for foreign direct investment inflow and four pollutants, i.e., CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions from solid fuels, SO2 emissions, and GHG emissions. In each case, eight different models are tested by incorporating different explanatory variables with foreign direct investment inflow. The outcome of this study shows that in some of the models a positive long-term relationship exists between FDI inflow and CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions from solid fuels, and GHG emissions and a negative long-term relationship between FDI inflow and SO2 emissions. Overall, we found no conclusive evidence of the existence of the pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan. As Pakistan is taking active measures to attract more FDI, it is essential to introduce appropriate environmental policies and institutional reforms that do not hinder FDI inflows.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

References

  • Al-mulali U, Foon Tang C (2013) Investigating the validity of pollution haven hypothesis in the gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries. Energy Policy 60:813e9

    Google Scholar 

  • Al-Mulali U, Ozturk I (2015) The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (Middle East and North African) region. Energy 84:382–389

    Google Scholar 

  • Al-Mulali U, Sab CNBC (2012) The impact of energy consumption and CO2 emission on economic growth and financial development in the Sub Saharan African countries. Energy 39:180–186

    Google Scholar 

  • Al-Mulali U, Ozturk I, Lean HH (2015) The influence of economic growth, urbanization, trade openness, financial development, and renewable energy on pollution in Europe. Nat Hazards 79(1):621–644

    Google Scholar 

  • Antweiler W, Copeland BR, Taylor SM (2001) Is free trade good for the environment? Am Econ Rev 91(4):877–908

  • Apergis N (2016) The impact of greenhouse gas emissions on personal well-being: evidence from a panel of 58 countries and aggregate and regional country samples. J Happiness Stud 19:69–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-016-9809-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arouri ME, Youssef A, Henni H, Rault C (2012) Empirical analysis of the EKC hypothesis for sulfur dioxide emissions in selected Middle East and North African countries. J Energy Develop 37(1/2):207–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Asumadu-Sarkodie S, Owusu PA (2016) Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-6511-x

  • Bakhsh K, Rose S, Ali MF, Ahmad N, Shahbaz M (2017) Economic growth, CO2 emissions, renewable waste and FDI relation in Pakistan: new evidences from 3SLS. J Environ Manag 196:627–632

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakirtas I, Cetin MA (2017) Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses: MIKTA sample. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24:18273–18283. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9462-y

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behera SR, Dash DP (2017) The effect of urbanization, energy consumption, and foreign direct investment on the carbon dioxide emission in the SSEA (South and Southeast Asian) region. Renew Sust Energ Rev 70:96e–106e

    Google Scholar 

  • Belaid F, Abderrahmani F (2013) Electricity consumption and economic growth in Algeria: a multivariate causality analysis in the presence of structural change. Energy Policy 55:286–295

    Google Scholar 

  • Boutabba MA (2014) The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: evidence from the Indian economy. Econ Model 40:33–41

    Google Scholar 

  • Bu M, Lin CT, Zhai S (2014) Comparative environmental regulation and foreign investment inflows: is China a pollution haven? Front Econ Glob 14:1–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Çetin M, Ecevit E (2015) Urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan countries: a panel cointegration and causality analysis. J Econ Develop Stud 3(2):66–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Charemza WW, Deadman DF (1992) New directions in econometric practice: general to specific modelling, cointegration and vector autoregression. Edward Elgar, Aldershot

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Jia B, Lau SSY (2008) Sustainable urban form for Chinese compact cities: challenges of a rapid urbanized economy. Habitat Int 32:28–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Chudnovsky D, Pupato G, Gutman V (2005) Environmental management and innovation in Argentine industry: determinants and policy implications. International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg

    Google Scholar 

  • Clemente J, Montanes A, Reyes M (1998) Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Econ Lett 59(2):175–182

    Google Scholar 

  • Cole MA (2004) Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages. Ecol Econ 1:71–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Cole MA, Elliott RJ (2003) Determining the trade environment composition effect: the role of capital, labor and environmental regulations. J Environ Econ Manag 3:363–383

    Google Scholar 

  • Cole MA, Elliott RJR, Zhang J (2011) Growth, foreign direct investment, and the environment: evidence from Chinese cities. J Reg Sci 51(1):121–138

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J Am Stat Assoc 74:427–431

    Google Scholar 

  • Dincer I, Rosen M (2011) Thermal energy storage: systems and applications. Wiley, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Dogan E, Ozturk I (2017) The influence of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real income on CO2 emissions in the USA: evidence from structural break tests. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8786-y

  • Elliott G, Rothenberg TJ, Stock JH (1996) Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica 64:813–836

    Google Scholar 

  • Eskeland GS, Harrison AE (2003) Moving to greener pastures? Multinationals and the pollution haven hypothesis. J Dev Econ 1:1–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Farhani S, Chaibi A, Rault C (2014) CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia. Econ Model 38:426–434

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankel, J.A., 2003. The environment and globalization. National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper No. w10090. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=467558

  • Gill FL, Viswanathan KK, Karim MZA (2018) The critical review of the pollution haven hypothesis. Int J Energy Econ Policy 8(1):167–174

    Google Scholar 

  • Government of Pakistan, the (GOP), 2017. Ordinance of the Board of Investment, Board of Investment, Prime Minister’s Office, Pakistan. http://boi.gov.pk/AboutUs/BOIOrdinance.aspx

  • Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1991) Environmental impacts of a North American free-trade agreement. Soc Sci Electron Publ 8(2):223–e250

    Google Scholar 

  • Hakimi A, Hamdi H (2016) Trade liberalization, FDI inflows, environmental quality and economic growth: a comparative analysis between Tunisia and Morocco. Renew Sust Energ Rev 58:1445–1456

  • Harris R, Sollis R (2003) Applied time series modelling and forecasting. Wiley, WestSussex

    Google Scholar 

  • He J (2006) Pollution haven hypothesis and environmental impacts of foreign direct investment: the case of industrial emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in Chinese province. Ecol Econ 60:228–245

  • Hossain MS (2011) Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries. Energy Policy 39:6991–6999

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • IMF, 2017. Pakistan: IMF country report no. 17/213. International Monetary Fund, Publication Services, Washington, D.C.

  • IMF (2018) Pakistan: IMF country report no. 18/78. International Monetary Fund, Publication Services, Washington, D.C

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva 151 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Kearsley A, Riddel M (2010) A further inquiry into the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve. Ecol Econ 69:905–919

    Google Scholar 

  • Keho Y (2017) Revisiting the income, energy consumption and carbon emissions nexus: new evidence from quantile regression for different country groups. Int J Energy Econ Policy 7(3):356–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellogg R (2006) The pollution haven hypothesis: significance and insignificance. Selected paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Long Beach, California. July 23-26, 2006

  • Koçak E, Şarkgüneşi A (2017) The impact of foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Turkey: new evidence from cointegration and bootstrap causality analysis. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0468-2

  • Lan J, Kakinaka M, Huang X (2012) Foreign direct investment, human capital and environmental pollution in China. Environ Resour Econ 2:255–275

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau LS, Choong CK, Eng YK (2014) Investigation of the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emissions in Malaysia: do foreign direct investment and trade matter? Energy Policy 68(5):490–497

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee CG (2009) Foreign direct investment, pollution and economic growth: evidence from Malaysia. Appl Econ 13:1709–1716

    Google Scholar 

  • Levinson A, Taylor MS (2008) Unmasking the pollution haven effect. Int Econ Rev 1:223–254

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang FH (2008) Does foreign direct investment harm the host country’s environment? Evid China 1–28. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1479864

  • Liddle B (2004) Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport. Popul Environ 26:23–39

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu Q, Wang S, Zhang W, Zhan D, Li J (2018) Does foreign direct investment affect environmental pollution in China’s cities? A spatial econometric perspective. Sci Total Environ 613–614:521–529

    Google Scholar 

  • Lopez LA, Arce G, Kronenberg T, Rodrigues JFD (2018) Trade from resource-rich countries avoids the existence of a global pollution haven hypothesis. J Clean Prod 175:599–611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.056

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mani M, Wheeler D (1998) In search of pollution havens? Dirty industry in the world economy, 1960 to 1995. J Environ Dev 3:215–247

    Google Scholar 

  • Nasreen S, Anwar S, Ozturk I (2017) Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: evidence from South Asian economies. Renew Sust Energ Rev 67:1105–1122

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Newman PWG, Kenworthy JR (1989) Cities and automobile dependence: an international sourcebook. Gower Technical, Aldershot

    Google Scholar 

  • Omri A, Nguyen DK, Rault C (2014) Causal interactions between CO2 emissions, FDI, and economic growth: evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equation models. Econ Model 42:382–389

  • Osathanunkul R, Kingnetr N, Sriboonchitta S (2018) Emissions, trade openness, urbanization, and income in Thailand: an empirical analysis. Predictive Econometrics and Big Data, Studies in Computational Intelligence 753. DOI. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70942-0_37

  • Pachauri S, Jiang L (2008) The household energy transition in India and China. Energy Policy 36(11):4022–4035

    Google Scholar 

  • Pao HT, Tsai CM (2011) Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries. Energy 1:685–693

  • Perron P (1989) The great crash, the oil price shock and unit root hypothesis. Econometrica 57(6):1361e1401

    Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran B (1997) Working with Microfit 4.0: An interactive econometric software package (DOS and Windows versions). Oxford University Press, Oxford

  • Pesaran MH, Shin Y (1999) “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration,” chapter 11. in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press

  • Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Econ 16(3):289–326

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips PCB, Perron P (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75:335–346

    Google Scholar 

  • Rafindadi AA, Ozturk I (2016) Effects of financial development, economic growth and trade on electricity consumption: evidence from post-Fukushima Japan. Renew Sust Energ Rev 54:1073–1084

    Google Scholar 

  • Rafindadi AA, Muye IM, Kaita RA (2018) The effects of FDI and energy consumption on environmental pollution in predominantly resource-based economies of the GCC. Sustain Energy Technol Assess 25:126–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2017.12.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren S, Yuan B, Ma X, Chen X (2014) International trade, FDI (foreign direct investment), and embodied CO2 emission: a case study of China’s industrial sectors. China Econ Rev 28:123–134

  • Salahuddin M, Alam K, Ozturk I, Sohag K (2018) The effects of electricity consumption, economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Kuwait. Renew Sust Energ Rev 81:2002–2010

    Google Scholar 

  • Sánchez-Triana E, Enriquez S, Afzal J, Nakagawa A, Khan AS (2014) Cleaning Pakistan’s air: policy options to address the cost of outdoor air pollution. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sapkota P, Bastola U (2017) Foreign direct investment, income, and environmental pollution in developing countries: panel data analysis of Latin America. Energy Econ 64:206–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahbaz M, Sobia R, Hamdi H, Ozturk I (2014) Economic growth, electricity consumption, urbanization and environmental degradation relationship in United Arab Emirates. Ecol Indic 45:622–631

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shahbaz M, Nasreen S, Abbas F, Anis O (2015) Does foreign direct investment impede environmental quality in high, middle, and low-income countries? Energy Econ 51:275–287

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahbaz M, Chaudhary AR, Ozturk I (2017) Does urbanization cause increasing energy demand in Pakistan? Empirical evidence from STIRPAT model. Energy 122:83–93

    Google Scholar 

  • Solarin SA, Al-Mulali U, Musah I, Ozturk I (2017) Investigating the pollution haven hypothesis in Ghana: an empirical investigation. Energy 124:706–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI, Common MS (2001) Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur? J Environ Econ Manag 41:162–178

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun C, Zhang F, Xu M (2017) Investigation of pollution haven hypothesis for China: an ARDL approach with breakpoint unit root tests. J Clean Prod 161:153–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.05.119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tamazian A, Rao BB (2010) Do economic, financial and institutional developments matter for environmental degradation? Evidence from transitional economies. Energy Econ 32(1):137–145

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang CF, Tan BW (2015) The impact of energy consumption, income and foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in Vietnam. Energy 79:447–454

    Google Scholar 

  • The United States Environmental Protection Agency (2019. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution. Accessed: 12 April 2019. https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/sulfur-dioxide-basics#effects

  • United Nations (UN) (2015) Transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. A /res/70/1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, USA. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/focussdgs.html

  • United Nations (UN) (2017) Progress towards the sustainable development goals. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, USA. www.un.org/publications

  • Walter I, Ugelow JL (1979) Environmental policies in developing countries. Ambio 2(3):102–109

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang et al (2019) Pollution haven hypothesis of domestic trade in China: a perspective of SO2 emissions. Sci Total Environ 663:198–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.287

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2018) World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=PK

  • World Development Indicators (WDI) (2018) World Bank. http://databank.worldbank.org

  • Yaseen MR, Ali Q, Khan MTI (2018) General dependencies and causality analysis of road traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25(20):19612–19627. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2146-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zakarya GY, Mostefa B, Abbes SM, Seghir GM (2015) Factors affecting CO2 emissions in the BRIC countries: a panel data analysis. Proc Econ Finance 26:114–125

    Google Scholar 

  • Zarsky L (1999) Havens, halos and spaghetti: untangling the evidence about foreign direct investment and the environment. Foreign Direct Invest Environ 8:47–74

    Google Scholar 

  • Zheng C, Shi M (2017) Multiple environmental policies and pollution haven hypothesis: evidence from China’s polluting industries. J Clean Prod 141:295–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.091

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H, Duan L, Guo Y, Yu K (2016) The effects of FDI, economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions in ASEAN-5: evidence from panel quantile regression. Econ Model 58:237–248

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Tariq Ali or Zhengquan Guo.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Responsible editor: Nicholas Apergis

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Nadeem, A.M., Ali, T., Khan, M.T.I. et al. Relationship between inward FDI and environmental degradation for Pakistan: an exploration of pollution haven hypothesis through ARDL approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 15407–15425 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08083-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08083-x

Keywords

  • Environment
  • Pollution haven/halo hypothesis
  • ARDL approach
  • Pakistan