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Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan

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Abstract

The current empirical study explores the linkage between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, average temperature, cultivated area, consumption of fertilizer, and rice production in Pakistan. For this research, the annual time series data from 1968 to 2014 were used to enhance the validity of the empirical outcomes. The cointegration analysis with the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to explore the effects of climate change on rice production. Additionally, the estimated long-run outcomes are verified by employing fully modified ordinary least squared (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) approaches. The empirical outcomes revealed that the selected important study variables are cointegrated demonstrating the existence of long-run linkages among them. The main fruitful outcomes of this study are that rice production in Pakistan is positively affected by the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in both long-run and short-run.

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Abbreviations

ARDL-bounds test:

Autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) bounds test

UCB:

Upper critical bound

LCB:

Lower critical bound

AIC:

Akaike information criteria

SBC:

Schwarz Bayesian criteria

HQC:

Hannan-Quinn information criterion

ECM:

Error correction model

OLS:

Ordinary least square

ADF:

Augmented Dickey-Fuller

PP:

Phillips Perron

KPSS:

Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin

CUSUM:

Cumulative sum of recursive residuals

CUSUMSQ:

Cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals

FMOLS:

Fully modified ordinary least square

DOLS:

Dynamic ordinary least square

GOP:

Government of Pakistan

WDI:

World development indicator.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, 611130, Chengdu, China

    Abbas Ali CHANDIO

  2. Department of Agricultural Economics, Sindh Agriculture University, 33800, Tandojam, Pakistan

    Habibullah MAGSI

  3. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cag University, 33800, Mersin, Turkey

    Ilhan OZTURK

Authors
  1. Abbas Ali CHANDIO
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  2. Habibullah MAGSI
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  3. Ilhan OZTURK
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Correspondence to Ilhan OZTURK.

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CHANDIO, A.A., MAGSI, H. & OZTURK, I. Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 7812–7822 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9

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