Abstract
Forecasting CO2 emissions is the bases of making environmental planning and ecological strategy decisions. This paper constructed a multi-sector intertemporal optimization model to forecast the CO2 emission trends of 14 industrial departments in 31 provinces of China from 2012 to 2050. The results indicate that (1) the energy efficiency level of each province will be improved continuously under the influence of technology progress, and CO2 emissions in most provinces will reach the peak during the forecast period. (2) CO2 emissions of metal-manufacturing industries are the highest in all provinces, and the emissions of transportation service industries, construction industries, and other service industries show a trend of gradual increase from west to east. (3) Under the influence of the capital and technology, CO2 emissions caused by transportation service industries in eastern provinces will reach the peak earlier than those in central and western regions. (4) Combined with the industrial structure and the technical input level, the chemical industries in the western provinces have a great potential for emission reduction. Moreover, construction and transportation industries in the eastern and central provinces have a great potential for emission reduction.
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Notes
Until the year of 2017, the recent year for the input-output table of provinces in China that we can obtain is 2012. The data come from: http://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-4886478-1-1.html.
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.
Except Hebei which is located in eastern China.
The proportion of agriculture in Jiangsu: 7.86% in 2005, 5.36% in 2016. Data sources: Jiangsu statistical yearbook.
The proportion of the tertiary industry in Beijing and Shanghai was 80.2% and 70.0% in 2016. Data sources: statistical yearbook of Beijing and Shanghai.
Data Source: CEIC Global Database.
Data source: statistical yearbook of each province in 2013. Accounting method: energy consumption of the oil industry/total output of the oil industry.
Data source: China statistical year book in 2017.
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Funding
This work is partially funded by the Major Projects in Philosophy and Social Science Research from the Ministry of Education of China (No. 14JZD031), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71303029, 71471001), and the National Social Science Foundation Project (No. 17BGL266).
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Pan, X., Xu, H. & Lu, Y. Long-term forecasting of industrial CO2 emissions in 31 provinces of China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 5168–5191 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07092-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07092-9