Skip to main content

Investigating the determinant factors of environmental quality (based on ecological carbon footprint index)

Environmental Science and Pollution Research volume 26, pages 10276–10291 (2019)Cite this article

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to evaluate 22 explanatory variables on ecological footprints and rank each of them by using the two approaches of Bayesian model averaging and weighted averaging least square in developing countries. The data is in a 20-year period of 1996–2016. According to the negative weighted averaging coefficient of square of gross domestic production (GDP), the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis can be confirmed with a high degree of certainty. The probability of the effect of this variable is 95% and is part of the components of all five optimal models. The two variables of energy consumption and population density were ranked second and third with the probability of the effectiveness of 0.89 and 0.75, respectively. They have positive effects on ecological footprint index. Population growth and value added of the industrial sector have a positive and almost important relationship with ecological footprint. Other variables in this study are not strongly related to the quality of the environment. For example, the variables such as urbanization rate, literacy rate, and foreign direct investment acquired the next ranking with respect to affecting the ecological footprint, respectively. Regarding the positive effect of foreign direct investment, we can say that this leads to environmental degradation. Human development with inclusion probability of 0.26 and a coefficient of 0.009 has resulted in the reduction of environmental degradation. The intensity of economic activities has inclusion probability of 0.48 and a negative impact, which is unexpected. Indicators of financial openness and trade openness have positive and negative coefficients with fewer probabilities. The square of the capital to labor ratio has a negative sign. The square of the capital to relative labor ratio has a negative coefficient and reduces environmental degradation. The product of the trade openness in the capital to relative labor ratio (and its square) is increasing the degradation of the environment. The square of the financial development has a negative sign. This is indicative of a non-uniform relationship between financial development and the ecological footprint, which follows a U-inverse form. The interaction of financial development–economic growth has a negative sign and the inclusion probability of it is 0.31 in the model, which indicates its weak relationship with the ecological footprint. In addition, the results of the analysis of optimal models confirm largely the previous findings based on BMA and weighted averaging least squares methods.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

43,34 €

Price includes VAT (Finland)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

References

  • Ahmed K, Rehman MU, Ozturk I (2017) What drives carbon dioxide emissions in the long-run? Evidence from selected South Asian countries. Renew Sust Energ Rev 70:1142–1153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.018

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Akbostanci E, Turut-Asik S, Tunc G (2009) The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: is there an environmental Kuznets curve? Energ Policy 37:861–867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.088

  • Al-Iriani M (2006) Energy-GDP relationship revisited: an example from GCC countries using panel causality. Energ Policy 34:3342–3350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.07.005

  • Al-Mulali U, Tang CF, Ozturk I (2015) Estimating the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean countries. Renew Sust Energ Rev 50:918–924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.05.017

  • Altinay G, Karagol E (2004) Structural break, unit root and causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey. Energy Econ 26:985–994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2004.07.001

  • Amadeh H, shakeri A, mohammadeyan F (2013) Government size, government quality and environmental quality case study of OECD and OIC countries. Appl Econ Stud 1:27–60

  • Ang JB (2007) CO2 emissions, energy consumption and output in France. Energ Policy 35:4772–4778

  • Ang JB (2008) Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy con-sumption in Malaysia. J Policy Model 30:271–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.032

  • Apergis N, Payne J (2009) CO2 emissions, energy usage and output in Central America. Energ Policy 37:3282–3286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.048

  • Behboudi D, Asgharpur H, Fallahi F, Mohammadi Khaneghahi R (2015) Impacts of financial and economic developments on greenhouse gas emission in selected OPEC countries: a panel cointegration and dynamic ordinary least squares approach. J Econ Res 49:315–335. https://doi.org/10.22059/jte.2014.51796

  • Bello AK, Abimbola OM (2010) Does the level of economic growth influence environmental quality in Nigeria: a test of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Pak J Soc Sci 7:325–329. https://doi.org/10.3923/pjssci.2010.325.329

  • Bentzen J, Engsted T (1993) Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand: a cointegration approach. Energy Econ 15:9–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(93)90037-R

  • Charfeddine L (2017) The impact of energy consumption and economic development on ecological footprint and CO2 emissions: evidence from a Markov switching equilibrium correction model. Energy Econ 65:355–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.009

  • Charfeddine L, KhediriK B (2016) Financial development and environmental quality in UAE: cointegration with structural breaks. Renew Sust Energ Rev 55:1322–1335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.059

  • Charfeddine L, Mrabet Z (2017) The impact of economic development and social-political factors on ecological footprint: a panel data analysis for 15 MENA countries. Renew Sust Energ Rev 76:138–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.031

  • Copeland BR, Taylor MS (2003) Trade and the environment. Princeton University Press, Princeton

  • Danilov D, Magnus JR (2004) On the harm, that ignoring pretesting can cause. J Econ 122:27–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2003.10.018

  • De Luca G, Magnus JR (2011) Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least squares: equivariance, stability, and numerical issues. Center Working Paper Series, No. 2011–082

  • Desai U (1998) Environment, economic growth, and government. Ecological policy and politics in developing countries, 1–45. Albany, NY: State University Press of New York Press

  • Destek, MA, Ulucak R, Dogan E (2018) Analyzing the environmental Kuznets curve for the EU countries: the role of ecological footprint. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25:29387–29396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2911-4

  • Dinda S, Coondoo D (2006) Income and emission: a panel database cointegration analysis. Ecol Econ 57:167–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.028

  • Erol U, Yu ESH (1987) Time-series analysis of the causal relationships between US energy and employment. Resour Energy 9:75–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0572(87)90024-7

  • Eugene AR, Andreas D, Thomas D, Carlo J (2010) Human footprints on the global environment: threats to sustainability. MIT Press, Cambridge

  • Fakher HA, Abedi Z (2017) Relationship between environmental quality and economic growth in developing countries (based on environmental performance index). Environ Energ Econ Res 1:300–310. https://doi.org/10.22097/eeer.2017.86464.1001

  • Farhani S, Mrizak S, Chaibi A, Rault C (2014) The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainability: a panel data analysis. Energ Policy 71:189–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.030

  • Fernandez C, Ley E, Steel MF (2001) Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions. J Appl Econ 16:563–576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fotros MH, Abolfazl N, Pirooz Mohammadi FA (2013) Study of the relationship between air pollution, energy intensity and economic openness in Iran. Econ J 12:5–22. http://ejip.ir/article-1-483-en.html

  • Frankel J, Romer D (1999) Does trade cause growth? Am Econ Rev 89:379–399. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.3.379

  • Galeotti M, Manera M, Lanza A (2009) On the robustness of robustness checks of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Environ Resour Econ 42:551–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-008-9224-x

  • Galli A, Kitzes J, Niccolucci V, Wackernagel M, Wada Y, Marchettini N (2012) Assessing the global environmental consequences of economic growth through the ecological footprint: a focus on China and India. Ecol Indic 17:99–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.04.022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gassebner M, Gaston N, Lamla MJ (2008) Relief for the environment? The importance of an increasingly unimportant industrial sector. Econ Inq 46:160–178. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00086.x

  • GFN (2007) Ecological footprint glossary. Global Footprint Network, Oakland

  • Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1991) Environmental impact of a North American Free Trade Agreement. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper

  • Gurgul H, Lach L (2011) The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition. Energ Policy 39:2088–2099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.052

  • Halicioglu F (2009) An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energ Policy 37:1156–1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012

  • Hao Y, Chen H, Zhang Q (2016) Will income inequality affect environmental quality? Analysis based on China’s provincial panel data. Ecol Indic 67:533–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.03.025

  • Harati J, eslamloeeian K, sharzaee GA, Amini T (2014) An investigation of the relationship between growth and pollution in the framework of a generalized endogenous growth model: a calibrated model for Iranian economy. Appl Eco Stud 3:33–58

  • Hassan ST, Xia E, Khan NH, Ali Shah SM (2018) Economic growth, natural resources, and ecological footprints: evidence from Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26:2929–2938. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3803-3

  • Jalil A, Feridun M (2010) The impact of growth, energy and financial development on the environment in China: a cointegration analysis. Energy Econ 33:284–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.003

  • Kolstad A, Krautkraemer V (1993) Natural resource use and the environment. Handbook of natural resource and energy economics. Elsevier, Amsterdam

  • Kraft J, Kraft A (1978) On the relationship between energy and GNP. J Energ Dev 3:401–403. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24806805

  • Lafferty W, Meadowcroft J (1996) Democracy and the environment: problems and prospects. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham

  • Lee CC, Lee JD (2009) Income and CO2 emissions: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests. Energ Policy 37:413–423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.053

  • Leitao A (2010) Corruption and environmental Kuznets curve: empirical evidence for sulfur. Ecol Econ 66:2191–2201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.06.004

  • Levine R, Renelt D (1992) A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. Am Econ Rev 82:942–963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.06.004

  • Li S, Ma Y (2014) Urbanization, economic development and environmental change. Sustainability-Basel 6:5143–5161. https://doi.org/10.3390/su6085143

  • Lieb CM (2004) The environmental Kuznets curve and flow versus stock pollution: the neglect of future damages. Environ Resour Econ 29:483–506. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-004-1046-x

  • List JA, Millimet DL, Fredriksson PG, Mchone WW (2003) Effects of environmental regulations on manufacturing plant births: evidence from a propensity score matching estimator. Rev Econ Stat 85:944–952. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3211817

  • Lopez R, Mitra S (2000) Corruption, pollution and the Kuznets environment curve. J Environ Econ Manag 40:137–150. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1999.1107

  • Magnus JR, Durbin J (1999) Estimation of regression coefficients of interest when other regression coefficients are of no interest. Econometrica 67:639–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00040

  • Magnus JR, Powell O, Prüfer P (2010) A comparison of two model-averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics. J Econ 154:139–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.07.004

  • Managi S, Hibiki A, Tsurumi T (2009) Does trade openness improve environment quality? J Environ Econ Manag 58:346–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2009.04.008

  • Masanjala W, Papageorgiou C (2008) Rough and lonely road to prosperity: are examination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging. J Appl Econ 23:671–682. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1020

  • McAusland C (2003) Voting for pollution policy: the importance of income inequality and openness to trade. J Int Econ 61:425–451. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00005-9

  • Midlarsky M (1998) Democracy and the environment: an empirical assessment. J Peace Res 35:341–361. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035003005

  • Mohammadi H, Heydarzadeh S (2014) The impact of factors affecting environmental pollution with emphasis on trade openness in different countries (case study CO2 emission). J Dev Agric Econ 28:213–223

  • Morse S (2017) Relating environmental performance of nation states to income and income inequality. Sustain Dev 25:276–287. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.1693

  • Mrabet Z, Alsamara M (2017) Testing the Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Qatar: A comparison between carbon dioxide and ecological footprint. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 70:1366-1375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.039

  • Mrabet Z, AlSamara M, Hezam Jarallah S (2017) The impact of economic development on environmental degradation in Qatar. Environ Ecol Stat 24:7–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-016-0359-6

  • Narayan PK, Smyth R (2008) Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks. Energy Econ 30:2331–2341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.10.006

  • Nekooei MH, Zeinalzadeh R, Sadeghi Z (2015) The effects of democracy on environment quality index in selected OIC countries. J Econ Stud 4:113–133. https://doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2015.4124

  • Newell P (2001) Managing multinational: the governance of investment for the environment. J Int Dev 13:907–919. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.832

  • Ozcan B (2013) The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: a panel data analysis. Energ Policy 62:1138–1147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.016

  • Ozturk I, Al-Mulali U, Saboori B (2016) Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: the role of tourism and ecological footprint. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23:1916–1928. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-5447-x

  • Panayotou T (1993) Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development, No. 292778, World Employment Programmed Research Working Paper, International Labour Organization. RePEc:iloilo ps:992927783402676

  • Raftery AE (1995) Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociol Methodol 25:111–163. https://doi.org/10.2307/271063

  • Rahman MM (2017) Do population density, economic growth, energy use and exports adversely affect environmental quality in Asian populous countries? Renew Sust Energ Rev 77:506–514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.041

  • Sadorsky P (2010) The impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies. Energ Policy 38:2528–2535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.12.048

  • Seker F, Ertugrul HM, Cetin M (2015) The impact of foreign direct investment on environmental quality: a bounds testing and causality analysis for Turkey. Renew Sust Energ Rev 52:347–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.118

  • Selden TM, Song D (1994) Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? J Environ Econ Manag 27:147–162. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1994.1031

  • Shafik N (1994) Economic development and environmental quality: an econometric analysis. Oxf Econ Pap 46:757–773. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/46.Supplement_1.757

  • Shahab MR, Sadrabadi SM (2014) Investigating the effect of economic policies of government on environmental quality in elected countries. J Environ Sci Technol 16:139–150. http://jest.srbiau.ac.ir/article_3135_en.html

  • Shahbaz M, Nasreen S, Ahmed K, Hammoudeh S (2017) Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: the importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels. Energy Econ 61:221–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.008

  • Soytas U, Sari R (2006) Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries. J Policy Model 28:739–750. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.02.003

  • Soytas U, Sari R (2009) Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: challenges faced by an EU candidate member. Ecol Econ 68:1667–1675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.06.014

  • Soytas U, Sari R, Ewing BT (2007) Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States. Ecol Econ 62:482–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.07.009

  • Stern D (2003) The environment Kuznets curve. Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy

    Google Scholar 

  • Stern DI (2005) Global sulfur emissions from 1850-2000. Chemosphere 58:163–175

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Talukdar D, Meisner CM (2001) Does private sector help or hurt the environment? Evidence from carbon dioxide pollution in developing countries. World Dev 29:827–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00008-0

  • Tamazian A, Rao B (2010) Do economic, financial and institutional developments matter for environmental degradation? Evidence from transitional economies. Energy Econ 32:137–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.04.004

  • Tamazian A, Chousa JP, Vadlamannati KC (2009) Does higher economic and financial development Lead to environmental degradation: evidence from BRIC countries. Energ Policy 37:246–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.025

  • Tiwari AK, Shahbaz M, Hye QMA (2013) The environmental Kuznets curve and the role of coal consumption in India: Cointegration and causality analysis in an open economy. Renew Sust Energ Rev 18:519–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.10.031

  • Torras M, Boyce JK (1998) Income, inequality, and pollution: a reassessment of the environmental Kuznets curve. Ecol Econ 25:147–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00177-8

  • Uddin GA, Salahuddin M, Alam K, Gow J (2017) Ecological footprint and real income: panel data evidence from the 27 highest emitting countries. Ecol Indic 77:166–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.01.003

  • Ulucak R, Bilgili F (2018) A reinvestigation of EKC model by ecological footprint measurement for high, middle and low income countries. J Clean Prod 188:144–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.191

  • Wackernagel M, Rees W (1996) Our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth, Gabriola Island. New Society Publishers, BC

  • Wang H, Jin Y (2007) Industrial ownership and environmental performance: evidence from China. Environ Resour Econ 36:255–273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-006-9027-x

  • Wang SS, Zhou DQ, Zhou P, Wang QW (2011) CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China: a panel data analysis. Energ Policy 39:4870–4875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.032

  • Wang Y, Kang L, Wu X, Xiao Y (2013) Estimating the environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint at the global level: A spatial econometric approach. Ecological Indicators 34:15-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.03.021

  • Wiedmann T, Barrett J (2010) A review of the ecological footprint Indicator-perceptions and methods. Sustainability 2(6):1645–1693. https://doi.org/10.3390/su2061645

  • Wiedmann T, Minx J (2008) A definition of ‘carbon footprint’. In: C. C. Pertsova, Ecological economics research trends: chapter 1, pp. 1–11, Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, NY, USA. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247152314_A_Definition_of_Carbon_Footprint

  • You WH, Zhu HM, Yu K, Peng C (2015) Democracy, financial openness, and global carbon dioxide emissions: heterogeneity across existing emission levels. World Dev 66:189–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.08.013

  • Zarzoso IM, Morancho AB (2004) Pooled mean group estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve for CO2. Econ Lett 82:121–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2003.07.008

  • Zellner A (1986) On assessing prior distributions and Bayesian regression analysis with G-prior distributions. Open J Stat 3:233–243

  • Zhang XP, Cheng XM (2009) Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in China. Ecol Econ 68:2706–2712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.05.011

Download references

Acknowledgements

I owe extensive gratitude to thank the Editor-in-Chief, Dr. Philippe Garrigues, and two anonymous referees for valuable and supportive comments and suggestions at different stages according to which I improved the earlier draft. However, I am solely responsible for any errors.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Hossein-Ali Fakher

Authors
  1. Hossein-Ali Fakher
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hossein-Ali Fakher.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Fakher, HA. Investigating the determinant factors of environmental quality (based on ecological carbon footprint index). Environ Sci Pollut Res 26, 10276–10291 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04452-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04452-3

Keywords

  • Ecological carbon footprint index
  • Bayesian model averaging
  • Weighted averaging least squares
  • Selected OPEC countries
  • EKC

JEL classification

  • C11
  • C32
  • Q53
  • Q56