Forecasting model to assess the potential of secondary lead production from lead acid battery scrap

Abstract

Lead acid battery (LAB) scrap management is an important issue both environmentally and economically. The recovery of lead from battery scrap leads to a reduction in negative impacts of lead mining, as well as making the battery production cycle environmentally friendly. This work aims to propose a forecasting model for lead generation from LAB scrap based on time series modeling that uses data regarding after-market of batteries and new batteries produced for new cars. In order to illustrate the applicability of the new proposal, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. The main results show that at least 1% of LAB scrap from light vehicles have unknown or improper destinations; the efficiency of the recycling process in Brazil is still low, resulting in lead losses close to 4.5%; the lack of a sectorial agreement between the official battery market and the government concerning the reverse logistics of LAB scrap leads to a lack of precise data on the amount of LAB scrap generated and its final destination. Moreover, the economic importance of lead recycling and logistics of the secondary market are also discussed, with a focus on the dangers of illegal recycling.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

References

  1. ANFAVEA (2016) The National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers Website. http://www.anfavea.com.br. Accessed 8 June 2016.

  2. Apiwattanachai T, Pichitlamken J (2018) Time-series forecasting model for automobile sales in Thailand. Operations Research network of Thailand, In

    Google Scholar 

  3. Awasthi AK, Zeng X, Li J (2016) Environmental pollution of electronic waste recycling in India: a critical review. Environ Pollut 211:259–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.11.027

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Box G, Jenkins G (1970) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  5. Brazil (2010) National Policy for Solid Waste. Law Number 12:305/2010 http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2007-2010/2010/lei/l12305.htm. Accessed 22 Sep 2015. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Brown L, Kima D, Yomai A, Meyer P, Noonan G, Huff D, Flanders W (2005) Blood lead levels and risk factors for lead poisoning in children and caregivers in Chuuk State, Micronesia. Int J Hyg Environ Health 208:231–236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2005.01.028

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Brunner PH (2011) Urban mining: a contribution to reindustrializing the city. J Ind Ecol 15:339–341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2011.00345.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Cabral Neto J, Silva MM, Santos SM (2016) A time series model for estimating the generation of lead acid battery scrap. Clean Techn Environ Policy 18(6):1931–1943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-016-1121-3

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Caliento CR (1992) Intoxicação por chumbo em trabalhadores de empresas que comercializam baterias. Rev CIPA 148:43–44 (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Carvalho F, Silvany Neto A, Tavares T, Costa A, Chaves C, Nascimento L, Reis M (2003) Chumbo no sangue de crianças e passivo ambiental de uma fundição de chumbo no Brasil. Panam J Public Health 13:19–23

    Google Scholar 

  11. CEMPRE (2013) Compromisso Empresarial para a Reciclagem. CEMPRE Review. file:///C:/Users/Usu%C3%A1rio/Downloads/o_195a6bo8q14sdk6l1n6o1su1q0la%20(1).pdf. Accessed 31 July 2016. (in Portuguese)

  12. Chen HY, Li AJ, Finlow DE (2009) The lead and lead-acid battery industries during 2002 and 2007 in China. J Power Sources 191:22–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2008.12.140

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Chen L, Xu Z, Liu M, Huang Y, Fan R, Su Y, Hu G, Peng X, Peng X (2012) Lead exposure assessment from study near a lead-acid battery factory in China. Sci Total Environ. 429:191–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.015

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Daniell WE, Van Tung L, Wallace RM, Havens DJ, Karr CJ, Diep NB, Croteau GA, Beaudet NJ, Bao ND (2015) Childhood lead exposure from battery recycling in Vietnam. BioMed Res Int DOI 2015:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/193715

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Demiroğlu U, Yüncüler C (2016) Estimating light-vehicle sales in Turkey. Central Bank Review 16(3):93–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. DENATRAM (2016) National Traffic Department. http://www.denatran.gov.br/frota.htm. Accessed 8 June 2016. (in Portuguese)

  17. Espinosa DCR, Bernardes AM, Tenorio JAS (2004) An overview on the current processes for the recycling of batteries. J Power Sources 135:311–319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2004.03.083

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Ettler V, Johan Z, Baronnet A, Jankovsky F, Gilles C, Mihaljevic M, Sebek O, Strnad L, Bezdicka P (2005) Mineralogy of air-pollution-control residues from a secondary lead smelter: environmental implications. Environ Sci Technol 39:9309–9316. https://doi.org/10.1021/es0509174

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Federal Reserve Board - FED (2018). <https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/mv_sales_sf.htm> Accessed in 15 Oct 2018

  20. Ferracin LC, Chaccon-Sanhueza AE, Davoglio RA, Rocha LO, Caffeu DJ, Fontanetti AR, Rocha-Filho RC, Biaggio SR, Bocchi N (2002) Lead recovery from a typical Brazilian sludge of exhausted lead-acid batteries using an electro hydrometallurgical process. Hydrometall 65:137–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-386X(02)00087-7

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Franco-Netto G, Alonzo HGA, Cancio J, Jost M, Souza-Oliveira S (2003) Human health risk reduction due to lead exposure in Brazil. Salud Publ Mex 45:255–258

    Google Scholar 

  22. Freedman DA (2009) Statistical models: theory and practice. Cambridge University Press, UK

    Google Scholar 

  23. Gomes G, Mendes T, Wada K (2011) Reduction in toxicity and generation of slag in secondary lead process. J Clean Prod 19:1096–1103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2011.01.006

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Gottesfeld P, Pokhrel AK (2011) Review: lead exposure in battery manufacturing and recycling in developing countries and among children in nearby communities. J Occup Environ Hyg 8:520–532. https://doi.org/10.1080/15459624.2011.601710

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Gupt Y (2014) Economic instruments and the efficient recycling of batteries in Delhi and the National Capital Region of India. Environ Dev Econ 20:236–258. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X14000382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Gupt Y, Sahay S (2015) Managing used lead acid batteries in India: evaluation of EPR-DRS approaches. J Health Pollut 5(8):52–63. https://doi.org/10.5696/i2156-9614-5-8.52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Haefliger P, Mathieu-Nolf M, Lociciro S, Ndiaye C, Coly M, Diouf A, Lam Faye A, Sow A, Tempowski J, Pronczuk J, Filipe Junior A, Bertollini R, Neira M (2009) Mass lead intoxication from informal used lead-acid battery recycling in Dakar, Senegal. Environ Health Perspect 117:1535–1540. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.0900696

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. He K, Wang S, Zhang J (2009) Blood lead levels of children and its trend in China. Sci Total Environ 407:3986–3993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.03.0

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. IBP (2012) International business publications. Mineral, mining sector investment and business guide. Volume 1: Strategic information, metals and mineral production. International Business Publications, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  30. INMETRO (2018) National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology. PT Inmetro no 301/2011. http://www.inmetro.gov.br/prodcert/certificados/lista.asp. Accessed 22 October 2018. (in Portuguese)

  31. International Battery Council (2014) http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/batterycouncil.org/resource/resmgr/Press_ Releases/Recycling_Study_Press_Releas.pdf. Accessed 7 June 2016

  32. Jeong KP, Kim JG (2017) Lead acid battery recycling and material flow analysis of lead in Korea. J Mater Cycles Waste Manag 20:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-017-0649-6

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Jones J, Geysen D, Tielemans Y, Van Passel S, Pontikes Y, Blanpain B, Quaghebeur M, Hoekstra N (2013) Enhanced landfill mining in view of multiple resource recovery: a critical review. J Clean Prod 55:45–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.05.021.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Kira CS, Sakuma AM, De Capitani EM, Freitas CU, Cardoso MRA, Gouveia N (2016) Associated factors for higher lead and cadmium blood levels, and reference values derived from general population of São Paulo, Brazil, Sci Total Environ 543:628–635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.067

  35. Kuno R, Humaytá M, Oliveira Filha M (1995) Níveis de plumbemia de um grupo populacional e animais de propriedades vizinha à indústria Tonolli S/A, em Jacareí – SP. CETESB – Departamento de Qualidade Ambiental. 20p. (in Portuguese)

  36. Layargues P (2002) O cinismo da reciclagem: o significado ideológico da reciclagem da lata de alumínio e suas implicações para a educação ambiental. Loureiro, F.; Layargues, P.; Castro, R. (Orgs.) Educação ambiental: repensando o espaço da cidadania. São Paulo: Cortez. 179–220. (in Portuguese)

  37. Licco EA (1999) Orientação técnica para o gerenciamento ambientalmente adequado de resíduos de baterias de chumbo. Relatório técnico. Versão preliminar submetida à Diretoria de Controle Ambiental. Representação no Brasil da OPAS/OMS. (in Portuguese)

  38. Ma Y, Qiu K (2015) Recovery of lead from lead paste in spent lead acid battery by hydrometallurgical desulfurization and vacuum thermal reduction. Waste Manag 40:151–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2015.03.010

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  39. Makatjane KD, Moroke ND (2016) Comparative study of holt-winters triple exponential smoothing and seasonal Arima: forecasting short term seasonal car sales in South Africa. Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions, 6, 1

  40. McKenzie E (1984) General exponential smoothing and the equivalent ARMA process. J Forecast 3:333–344. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980030312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. MME (2015) Ministry of mines and energy. Annual Mineral Summary vol 15. http://www.dnpm.gov.br/dnpm/sumarios/sumario-mineral-2015. Accessed 7 June 2016. (in Portuguese)

  42. Morettin PA, Toloi CM (2006) Análise de séries temporais, 2a edn. Blucher, São Paulo

    Google Scholar 

  43. Mosteller F, Tukey JW (1977) Data analysis and regression: a second course in statistics Addison Wesley: Philippines.

  44. Moura, Baterias (2018) Information Management Department. (in Portuguese)

  45. National Association of Urban Transport Enterprises (NTU) (2018) <https://www.ntu.org.br/novo/NoticiaCompleta.aspx?idArea=10&idNoticia=1051> (In Portuguese)

  46. National Urban Mobility Policy (Law 12587/2012) <http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_Ato2011-2014/2012/Lei/L12587.htm> (In Portuguese)

  47. Noguchi T, Itai T, Minh Tue N, Agusa T, Ngoc Ha N, Horai S, Trang P, Viet P, Takahashi S, Tanabe S (2014) Exposure assessment of lead to workers and children in the battery recycling craft village, Dong Mai, Vietnam. J Mater Cycles Waste Manag 16:46–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-013-0159-0

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Paoliello M, De Capitani E (2007) Occupational and environmental human lead exposure in Brazil. Environ Res 103:288–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2006.06.013

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Pindyck RS, Rubinfeld DL (1998) Econometric models and economic forecasts. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York

    Google Scholar 

  50. Rencher AC, Christensen WF (2012) Methods of multivariate analysis, Wiley series in probability and statistics 709 3rd ed John Wiley & Sons: USA

  51. Rocha L, Horta G (1987) Avaliação da intoxicação profissional por chumbo em indústrias de acumuladores elétricos na Grande Belo Horizonte. Rev Bras Saúde Ocup 15:6–12 (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  52. Silva G, Supino E, Bertoli C, Leite R (1977) Intoxicação familiar por chumbo em fábrica de baterias. Rev. Bras. Saúde Ocup. 20:23–29 (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  53. Simoni M, Kuhn EP, Morf LS, Kuendig R, Adam F (2015) Urban mining as a contribution to the resource strategy of the Canton of Zurich. Waste Manag 45:10–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2015.06.045

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  54. Sobanska S, Ricq N, Laboudigue A (1999) Microchemical investigations of dust emitted by a lead smelter. Environ Sci Technol. 33:1334–1339. https://doi.org/10.1021/es9805270

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  55. Sonmez M, Kumar R (2009) Leaching of waste battery paste components. Part 1: Lead citrate synthesis from PbO and PbO2. Hydrometall 95:53–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydromet.2008.04.012

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  56. Sun Z, Cao H, Zhang X, Lin X, Zheng W, Cao G, Sun Y, Zhang Y (2017) Spent lead-acid battery recycling in China – a review and sustainable analyses on mass flow of lead. Waste Manag 64:190–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2017.03.007

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  57. Tian X, Gong Y, Wu Y, Agyeiwaa A, Zuo T (2014) Management of used lead acid battery in China: secondary lead industry progress, policies and problems. Resour Conserv Recyc 93:75–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.10.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Tian X, Wu Y, Hou P, Liang S, Qu S, Xu M, Zuo T (2017) Environmental impact and economic assessment of secondary lead production: comparison of main spent lead-acid battery recycling processes in China. J Clean Prod 144:142–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.171

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  59. Trivelato GC, Paoliello, MM (2009) Recycling of lead and human exposure in Brazil. Paper presented at the Sixth International Symposium on Recent Advances in Environmental Health Research, Jackson, Mississipi, USA.

  60. U.S. Geological Survey - USGS. Lead, Statistics and Information (2015) http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lead/mcs-2015-lead.pdf. Accessed 25 Jan 2016.

  61. Van der Kuijp T, Huang L, Cherry C (2013) Health hazards of China’s lead-acid battery industry: a review of its market drivers, production processes, and health impacts. Environ Health 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-12-61

  62. Waldron AH (1973) Lead poisoning in the ancient world. Med Hist 17:391–399. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0025727300019013

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  63. Yaffee RA, Macgee M (2000) An introduction to time series analysis and forecasting: with applications of SAS® and SPSS® 1st edition. Academic Press

  64. Yoheeswaran E, Govindaradjane S, Sundararajan T (2013) Recovery of lead metal from Lead acid battery by hydrometallurgical method. Int J Eng Sci Innov Technol 2:254–356

    Google Scholar 

  65. Zhang W, Yang J, Wu X, Hu Y, Yu W, Wang J, Don J, Li M, Liang S, Hu J, Kumar RV (2016) A critical review on secondary lead recycling technology and its prospect. Renew Sust Energ Rev 61:108–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.03.046

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  66. Zhu X, Li L, Sun X (2012) Preparation of basic lead oxide from spent lead acid battery paste via chemical conversion. Hydrometall 117–118:24–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydromet.2012.01.006

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the engineer Héctor Iván Díaz González. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Simone Machado Santos.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Machado Santos, S., Cabral Neto, J. & Mendonça Silva, M. Forecasting model to assess the potential of secondary lead production from lead acid battery scrap. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26, 5782–5793 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-04118-6

Download citation

Keywords

  • Lead acid battery
  • Secondary lead production
  • Waste management
  • Hazardous waste
  • Time series modeling
  • Forecasting model