Abstract
In light of a slow buildup in CO2 emissions since the recovery, this paper revisits the relationship between CO2 emissions and the US economy using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, in which the determinants are identified through an expanded real business cycle model. We find convincing evidence that CO2 emissions decline more rapidly during recessions than increase during expansions over the long run. Of all determinants considered, long-run asymmetry is fostered once vehicle miles traveled is controlled. This calls for a greater attention to public transportation development and vehicle miles traveled tax for slowing down stock buildup of CO2 emissions during good times.
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Acknowledgements
This paper was written when Stockholm China Economic Research Institute (SCERI) hosted the second author as Visiting Research Fellow. He is grateful to SCERI for stimulating research environment and Lars-Erik Thunholms Stiftelse for Vetenskaplig Forskning for the generous stipend. This research is part of a project financially funded by e-Science fund from the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Malaysia (MOSTI) (06-02-11-SF0174). We gratefully thank Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo and Yongcheol Shin for their kindness to share the program code.
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Eng, YK., Wong, CY. Tapered US carbon emissions during good times: what’s old, what’s new?. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24, 25047–25060 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0144-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0144-6