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A lagged variable model for characterizing temporally dynamic export of legacy anthropogenic nitrogen from watersheds to rivers

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Abstract

Legacy nitrogen (N) sources originating from anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) may be a major cause of increasing riverine N exports in many regions, despite a significant decline in NANI. However, little quantitative knowledge exists concerning the lag effect of NANI on riverine N export. As a result, the N leaching lag effect is not well represented in most current watershed models. This study developed a lagged variable model (LVM) to address temporally dynamic export of watershed NANI to rivers. Employing a Koyck transformation approach used in economic analyses, the LVM expresses the indefinite number of lag terms from previous years’ NANI with a lag term that incorporates the previous year’s riverine N flux, enabling us to inversely calibrate model parameters from measurable variables using Bayesian statistics. Applying the LVM to the upper Jiaojiang watershed in eastern China for 1980–2010 indicated that ~97 % of riverine export of annual NANI occurred in the current year and succeeding 10 years (~11 years lag time) and ~72 % of annual riverine N flux was derived from previous years’ NANI. Existing NANI over the 1993–2010 period would have required a 22 % reduction to attain the target TN level (1.0 mg N L−1), guiding watershed N source controls considering the lag effect. The LVM was developed with parsimony of model structure and parameters (only four parameters in this study); thus, it is easy to develop and apply in other watersheds. The LVM provides a simple and effective tool for quantifying the lag effect of anthropogenic N input on riverine export in support of efficient development and evaluation of watershed N control strategies.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the local government agencies for providing data critical for this investigation. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41371010) and Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (LY13D010002).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Environmental & Resource Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

    Dingjiang Chen, Yi Guo & Minpeng Hu

  2. Ministry of Education Key Lab of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

    Dingjiang Chen

  3. Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

    Yi Guo

  4. Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    Randy A. Dahlgren

Authors
  1. Dingjiang Chen
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  2. Yi Guo
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  3. Minpeng Hu
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  4. Randy A. Dahlgren
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dingjiang Chen.

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Responsible editor: Marcus Schulz

Randy A Dahlgren holds a Ph.D, University of California Davis.

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Chen, D., Guo, Y., Hu, M. et al. A lagged variable model for characterizing temporally dynamic export of legacy anthropogenic nitrogen from watersheds to rivers. Environ Sci Pollut Res 22, 11314–11326 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-4377-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-4377-y

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