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A robust simulation–optimization modeling system for effluent trading—a case study of nonpoint source pollution control

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Abstract

In this study, a robust simulation–optimization modeling system (RSOMS) is developed for supporting agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) effluent trading planning. The RSOMS can enhance effluent trading through incorporation of a distributed simulation model and an optimization model within its framework. The modeling system not only can handle uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and interval values but also deal with the variability of the second-stage costs that are above the expected level as well as capture the notion of risk under high-variability situations. A case study is conducted for mitigating agricultural NPS pollution with an effluent trading program in Xiangxi watershed. Compared with non-trading policy, trading scheme can successfully mitigate agricultural NPS pollution with an increased system benefit. Through trading scheme, [213.7, 288.8] × 103 kg of TN and [11.8, 30.2] × 103 kg of TP emissions from cropped area can be cut down during the planning horizon. The results can help identify desired effluent trading schemes for water quality management with the tradeoff between the system benefit and reliability being balanced and risk aversion being considered.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation (51379075, 51225904, and 51190095), the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB430401), the 111 Project (B14008), and the Program for Innovative Research Team in University (IRT1127). The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

    J. L. Zhang, Y. P. Li & G. H. Huang

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  1. J. L. Zhang
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  2. Y. P. Li
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  3. G. H. Huang
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Correspondence to Y. P. Li.

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Responsible editor: Michael Matthies

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Zhang, J.L., Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. A robust simulation–optimization modeling system for effluent trading—a case study of nonpoint source pollution control. Environ Sci Pollut Res 21, 5036–5053 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2437-8

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