Abstract
This study evaluates the accuracy of previously published econometric forecasts for seven lodging sector variables that measure hotel activity in El Paso, Texas. The hotel forecasts have been generated annually using an econometric model of the El Paso metropolitan economy from 2006 forward. Predictive accuracy is evaluated relative to random walk benchmarks. Assessment is completed using both descriptive forecast error summary statistics as well as formal statistical tests. The econometric model outperforms the random walk benchmarks for a majority of the variables analyzed. However, statistical tests of forecast error differentials do not yield conclusive evidence in favor of the econometric historical track record. Tests of directional forecast accuracy also produce mixed results. Although the structural econometric model of hotel business conditions appears to provide useful predictive information, analysts and planners should also monitor recent history closely.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ashley, R., Granger, C. W. J., & Schmalensee, R. (1980). Advertising and aggregate consumption: An analysis of causality. Econometrica, 48(5), 1149–1167.
Brännäs, K., Hellström, J., & Nordström, J. (2002). A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels. International Journal of Forecasting, 18(1), 19–30.
Corgel, J., & Woodworth, M. (2012). Why hotels? Economy weakens but hotels remain relatively strong – What gives? And what might give? Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 53(4), 270–273.
Cross, R. G., Higbie, J. A., & Cross, Z. N. (2011). Milestones in the application of analytical pricing and revenue management. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 10(1), 8–18.
De Mello, M. M., & Nell, K. S. (2005). The forecasting ability of a cointegrated VAR system of the UK tourism demand for France, Spain and Portugal. Empirical Economics, 30(2), 277–308.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr. (2001). Specification of a Borderplex econometric forecasting model. International Regional Science Review, 24(2), 245–260.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr. (2004). Borderplex bridge and air econometric forecast accuracy. Journal of Transportation & Statistics, 7(1), 7–21.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr., & Walke, A. G. (2013). Hotel sector econometric forecast accuracy. In C. Putcha, B. Sloboda, & K. Coulibaly (Eds.), Econometric and Forecasting Models (pp. 75–94). Lewiston: The Edwin Mellen Press.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr., Ceballos, A., & Walke, A. G. (2016). Short-term forecasting analysis for municipal water demand. Journal of the American Water Works Association, 108(1), E27–E38.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr., Saenz-Rojo, E. D., & Walke, A. G. (2017). Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States, 2017. Applied Economics, 49(30), 2910–2921.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr., Mukhopadhyay, S., & Walke, A. G. (2018). Econometric versus neural network transportations forecasts. Asian-African Journal of Economics & Econometrics, 18(1), 79–91.
Fullerton, T. M., Jr., Nazarian, A. D., Solis, O., & Fullerton, S. L. (2019). Borderplex Economic Outlook to 2020. El Paso: University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project.
Granger, C. W. J., & Pesaran, M. H. (2000). Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy. Journal of Forecasting, 19(7), 537–560.
Henriksson, R. D., & Merton, R. C. (1981). On market timing and investment performance. II. Statistical procedures for evaluating forecasting skills. Journal of Business, 54(4), 513–533.
Kimes, S. E. (1999). Group forecasting accuracy in hotels. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 50(11), 1104–1110.
Kolb, R. A., & Stekler, H. O. (1993). Are economic forecasts significantly better than naïve predictions? An appropriate test. International Journal of Forecasting, 9(1), 117–120.
Koupriouchina, L., van der Rest, J. P., & Schwartz, Z. (2014). On revenue management and the use of occupancy forecasting error measures. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 41, 104–114.
Law, R. (1998). Room occupancy rate forecasting: A neural network approach. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 10(6), 234–239.
Martin, C. A., & Witt, S. F. (1989). Accuracy of econometric forecasts of tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 16(3), 407–428.
Oxford Economics. 2016. Economic Impact of the U.S. Hotel Industry. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Oxford Economics. https://www.ahla.com/sites/default/files/Economic%20Impact%20Study%20%28Oxford%29_0.pdf. Accessed 11 July 2018.
Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. G. (1992). A simple nonparametric test of predictive performance. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(4), 461–465.
Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L. (1998). Econometric models and economic forecasts. In Boston. Massachusetts: Irwin McGraw-Hill.
Schnader, M. H., & Stekler, H. O. (1990). Evaluating predictions of change. Journal of Business, 63(1), 99–107.
Song, H., & Li, G. (2008). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting - a review of recent research. Tourism Management, 29(2), 203–220.
Song, H., Witt, S. F., & Jensen, T. C. (2003). Tourism forecasting: Accuracy of alternative econometric models. International Journal of Forecasting, 19(1), 123–141.
Song, H., Lin, S., Witt, S. F., & Zhang, X. (2011). Impact of financial/economic crisis on demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong. Tourism Management, 32(1), 172–186.
Witt, S. F., & Witt, C. A. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting, 11(3), 447–475.
Witt, S. F., Song, H., & Louvieris, P. (2003). Statistical testing in forecasting model selection. Journal of Travel Research, 42(2), 151–158.
Wu, D. C., Song, H., & Shujie, S. (2017). New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 29(1), 507–529.
Acknowledgements
Financial support for this research was provided by El Paso Water, City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget, National Science Foundation Grant DRL-1740695, the UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade, and the Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness at UTEP. Econometric research assistance was provided by Ernesto Duarte, Patricia Arellano, and Omar Solis. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by five anonymous referees.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Walke, A.G., Fullerton Jr., T.M. Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso. Atl Econ J 47, 179–191 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-019-09620-x
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-019-09620-x