An impact assessment of machine learning risk forecasts on parole board decisions and recidivism
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The Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole has begun using machine learning forecasts to help inform parole release decisions. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of the forecasts on those decisions and subsequent recidivism.
A close approximation to a natural, randomized experiment is used to evaluate the impact of the forecasts on parole release decisions. A generalized regression discontinuity design is used to evaluate the impact of the forecasts on recidivism.
The forecasts apparently had no effect on the overall parole release rate, but did appear to alter the mix of inmates released. Important distinctions were made between offenders forecasted to be re-arrested for nonviolent crime and offenders forecasted to be re-arrested for violent crime. The balance of evidence indicates that the forecasts led to reductions in re-arrests for both nonviolent and violent crimes.
Risk assessments based on machine learning forecasts can improve parole release decisions, especially when distinctions are made between re-arrests for violent and nonviolent crime.
KeywordsParole Machine learning Recidivism Forecasting Regression discontinuity design Multinomial logistic regression
The entire project would have been impossible without the efforts of Jim Alibrio, Fred Klunk and their many colleagues working at the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole and the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections. Thanks also go to the National Institute of Justice for financial support and to Patrick Clark who was the project monitor at NIJ. Finally, the paper benefitted from an unusually thorough and constructive set of reviews.
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