Investigate the degree and nature of influence that researchers have in police crime prevention programs and whether a high degree of influence is associated with biased reporting of results.
Meta-analytic inquiry of experimental and quasi-experimental studies (n = 42), drawn from four Campbell Collaboration systematic reviews of leading police crime prevention strategies: problem-oriented policing, “hot spots” policing, “pulling levers” policing, and street-level drug enforcement.
Larger program effects are not associated with studies with higher involvement on the part of the evaluator (e.g., assisting in strategy design, monitoring implementation, overcoming implementation problems).
This study does not find support for the cynical view, which holds that researchers have a personal stake in the program or are pressured to report positive results. Importantly, the evaluator’s involvement in the implementation of the program may be a necessary condition of successfully executed police experiments in complex field settings.
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The Campbell Collaboration reviews used to identify police crime prevention evaluations include strong and weak quasi-experimental designs. Based on the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale (Farrington et al. 2006), eligible quasi-experimental evaluations of police crime prevention programs would be considered “Level 3” and “Level 4” research designs. Level 3 quasi-experimental designs are regarded as the minimum design that is adequate for drawing conclusions about program effectiveness. This design rules out many threats to internal validity such as history, maturation/trends, instrumentation, testing, and mortality. The main problems of Level 3 evaluations center on selection effects and regression to the mean due to the non-equivalence of treatment and control conditions. Level 4 evaluations measure outcomes before and after the program in multiple treatment and control condition units. These types of designs have better statistical control of extraneous influences on the outcome and, relative to lower level evaluations, deal with selection and regression threats more adequately.
Nine of these 46 studies appeared in multiple systematic reviews. This was not surprising given that these 4 systematic reviews were related in the sense that all examined evaluations of innovative police crime prevention programs focused on specific crime problems. The Mazerolle et al. (2000) and Weisburd and Green (1995) evaluations were included in the problem-oriented policing, drug enforcement, and hot spots policing systematic reviews. The Sherman and Rogan (1995b) and Sviridoff et al. (1992) evaluations were included in the drug enforcement and hot spots policing systematic reviews. The Braga et al. (1999) and Sherman et al. (1989) studies were included in the problem-oriented policing and hot spots policing systematic reviews. The Green (1996) and Clarke and Bichler-Robertson (1998) studies appeared in the problem-oriented policing and drug enforcement systematic reviews. The Braga et al. (2001) evaluation was included in the problem-oriented policing and pulling levers systematic reviews.
The Caeti (1999) evaluation did not examine the differences-in-differences between treatment and control areas and, as such, did not directly measure whether the observed changes in the treatment beats were significantly different from observed changes in the control beats.
Using the guidelines on effect size interpretation suggested by Cohen (1988), a standardized mean effect size of .171 would be considered small. Other scholars, however, suggest a more nuanced interpretation of the magnitude of effect sizes in different social science fields. For instance, Lipsey (2000) suggests that a small standardized mean effect size should be defined as .10 rather than .20. Using Lipsey’s guidelines, the standardized mean effect size for the police crime prevention programs in this review would be considered moderate.
The slight overlap of the 95 % confidence intervals raised the possibility that the two parameters may in fact be different. As suggested by Rothstein (2008), we used a variety of tests to examine the possibility that our study suffered from some degree of publication bias. Our overall conclusion from these analyses was that publication bias was not a problem for our study. For instance, the classic failsafe N test yielded a z value of 18.70 and a corresponding p value of < 0.000 for the combined test of significance. The test reported that there would need to be 3,782 missing studies with zero effect to yield a combined two-tailed p value exceeding 0.05. This far exceeds the 220 studies suggested by Rosenthal’s (5 K + 10) guideline on the number of studies to be confident that the results would not be nullified. We also applied the Begg and Mazumdar rank correlation test to our pool of studies; the Kendell’s tau b for the 42 studies was 0.111 with a two-tailed p = 0.298 (based on continuity corrected normal approximation), suggesting publication bias was not operating in the analyses. As a result of these supplementary analyses, we are confident that publication bias is not a significant problem for our study of evaluator influence on program outcomes.
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We are grateful to the editor, David Wilson, and the anonymous reviewers for helpful comments.
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Welsh, B.C., Braga, A.A. & Hollis-Peel, M.E. Can “disciplined passion” overcome the cynical view? An empirical inquiry of evaluator influence on police crime prevention program outcomes. J Exp Criminol 8, 415–431 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-012-9153-0
- Academic–practitioner partnerships
- Conflict of interest
- Crime prevention
- Evaluator influence