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Potential impact of climate change on canopy tree species composition of cool-temperate forests in Japan using a multivariate classification tree model

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  • Climate Change and Biodiversity Conservation in East Asia as a token of memory for the 7th EAFES in Daegu, Korea
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Ecological Research

Abstract

Climate change will likely change the species composition or abundance of plant communities, and it is important to anticipate these changes to develop climate change adaptation policies. We chose beech (Fagus crenata Blume) and its competitive tree species as target species to evaluate potential turnover in forest types under climate change using a multivariate classification tree model. To construct the model, geographical presence/absence data for nine target species were used as multivariate response variables, with five climatic factors were used as predictor variables. Current and future distribution probabilities for the target species were calculated, and the 15 dominant forest types were subjectively classified in approximately 1-km2 grid cells within the area of the current beech forest distribution. All 16,398 grid cells of the beech-dominant forest type (FCR-QCR) were projected to be replaced in the future by five Quercus crispula-dominant types (59% of FCR-QCR grid cells), four Q. serrata types (22%), two Q. salicina types (8%), or two Abies firma types (0.1%). The FCR-QCR type remained unchanged (stable) in only 11.4% of grid cells; these were mainly distributed at high elevations in snowy areas on the Sea of Japan side of the country. In contrast, vulnerable habitats (future probability of beech occurrence less than 1.0%) were found at low elevations on both the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean sides. Northwards or upwards range expansions or increases of Quercus spp., in particular, need to be carefully monitored.

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Acknowledgements

We thank anonymous reviewers for useful comments. We also thank Dr. Carol West, Mr. Adrian de Groot, and Dr. James Worth for their useful comments on the former version of the manuscript. We also thank Dr. Tomoki Nakaya for his expertise on spatial statistics. We declare that this study was conducted in accordance with the prevailing laws and regulations of Japan. This study was funded by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the Global Environmental Research (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, and the KAKENHI Grant Number 15H02833.

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  1. Dai Koide

    Present address: Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan

    Tetsuya Matsui

  2. Kansai Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 68 Nagaikyutaroh, Momoyama, Fushimi, Kyoto, Kyoto, 612-0855, Japan

    Katsuhiro Nakao & Yuji Kominami

  3. Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan

    Dai Koide

  4. Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Faculty of Science, Kochi University, 2-5-1 Akebonocho, Kochi, Kochi, 780-8520, Japan

    Motoki Higa

  5. Hokkaido Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 7 Hitsujigaoka, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 062-8516, Japan

    Ikutaro Tsuyama

  6. Tohoku Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 92-25, Nabeyashiki, Shimokuriyagawa, Morioka, Iwate, 020-0123, Japan

    Tsutomu Yagihashi

  7. Faculty of International Agriculture and Food Studies, Tokyo University of Agriculture, 1-1-1, Sakuragaoka, Setagaya-Ku, Tokyo, 156-8502, Japan

    Nobuyuki Tanaka

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  1. Tetsuya Matsui
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Correspondence to Tetsuya Matsui.

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Matsui, T., Nakao, K., Higa, M. et al. Potential impact of climate change on canopy tree species composition of cool-temperate forests in Japan using a multivariate classification tree model. Ecol Res 33, 289–302 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-018-1576-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-018-1576-2

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