The effects of climate change on the distribution of European glass lizard Pseudopus apodus (PALLAS, 1775) in Eurasia
- 141 Downloads
The distribution area of Pseudopus apodus includes the Balkan, Crimean peninsulas, and Ciscaucasia region in Europe, and Asia Minor and the Middle East. This area has experienced a significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming, logging and climate change. To estimate how climate change will affect the presumed future distribution of the studied species, we constructed the possible current distribution of the species and its potential environmental risk for future dispersion. We used an ensemble prediction to forecast the location and distribution of suitable habitats for P. apodus in present and future (i.e. 2070) based on 19 environmental variables. The results were consistent among models and indicated that there are two most important variables that affect distribution pattern of the species: temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality. All of the models used in this study showed a significant AUC and TSS value. Based upon FDA and ensemble maps it is proposed here that species range will be extended to the east, in particular in higher altitude regions like Afghanistan, but its western range in Jordan will be shrunk. Comparison of the current distribution and future prediction reveals that suitable habitats of Pseudopus apodus will be shifted to higher elevations by 2070 and during this period the species is predicted to migrate from lowlands to higher elevations. Change in latitudinal range is also probable to find new suitable areas under predicted future climate scenarios.
KeywordsBiomod2 Reptiles Pseudopus apodus Distribution Biodiversity
We wish to thank Dr. Ali Reza Keykhosravi for his help and support during this study.
- Anderson S (1999) The lizards of Iran. Society for the study of Amphibians and Reptiles Contributions to Herpetology. Ithaca, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Başoğlu M, Baran I (1977) The reptiles of Turkey. Ilker MatbaasiGoogle Scholar
- Cox NA, Temple HJ (2009) European red list of reptiles. vol 333.957094 E89e. IUCN, Gland (Suiza)Google Scholar
- Monge-Nájera J (2008) Ecological biogeography: a review with emphasis on conservation and the neutral model. Gayana 72:102–112Google Scholar
- Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Grubler A, Riahi K, Roehrl R, Rogner H-H, Victor N (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
- Solomon S (2007) Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC vol 4. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
- Thuiller W, Georges D, Engler R, Breiner F, Georges MD, Thuiller CW (2016) Package ‘biomod2’Google Scholar
- Wilms T, Bohme W (2007) A review of the taxonomy of the spinytailed lizards of Arabia (Reptilia: Agamidae: Leiolepidinae: Uromastyx). Fauna Arabia 23:435–468Google Scholar