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The future of Iranian wetlands under climate change

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Abstract

Temporal changes in the area of 10 significant wetlands in Iran were determined using the remote sensing image of TM and ETM+ band 5 for a period of 15 years (1998–2012). The relationship between the annual time series of the area and the difference of precipitation and potential evaporation (P-E) was obtained for the wetlands using three evaporation methods. The area of the wetlands was predicted for 2050 using the best-fitting model and seven global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (a total of 28 climate scenarios). The area of five wetlands had a significant positive correlation with the P-E (R2 > 0.72). The area of one wetland (Ghoorigol) is predicted to increase and the area of four wetlands (Bakhtegan, Chaghakhor, Parishan and Gavkhooni) is predicted to decrease in 2050 in comparison to the maximum area of the wetlands from 1998 to 2012 under all the climate scenarios. In comparison to the mean area of the wetlands (1998–2012), one wetland (Ghoorigol) is predicted to be larger and two wetlands (Gavkhooni and Parishan) are predicted to be smaller under all the climate scenarios. Two wetlands (Bakhtegan and Chaghakhor) are predicted to be larger under most of the climate scenarios in 2050. The Uromia wetland, the largest wetland in Iran, is predicted to become completely dry by 2032 if anthropogenic impacts continue similar to what occurred from 1998 to 2012.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Protection, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran

    Mohammad Mousaei Sanjerehei

  2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA

    Philip W. Rundel

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  1. Mohammad Mousaei Sanjerehei
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  2. Philip W. Rundel
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Correspondence to Mohammad Mousaei Sanjerehei.

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Sanjerehei, M.M., Rundel, P.W. The future of Iranian wetlands under climate change. Wetlands Ecol Manage 25, 257–273 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-016-9514-y

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