Abstract
This study applied the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) to estimate the sensitivity of 66 watersheds in the Southern Blue Ridge Province of the Southern Appalachian Mountains, United States, to changes in atmospheric sulfur (S) deposition. MAGIC predicted that stream acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) values were above 20 μeq/L in all modeled watersheds in 1860. Hindcast simulations suggested that the median historical acidification of the modeled streams was a loss of about 25 μeq/L of ANC between 1860 and 2005. Although the model projected substantial changes in soil and stream chemistry since pre-industrial times, simulated future changes in response to emission controls were small. Results suggested that modeled watersheds would not change to a large degree with respect to stream ANC or soil % base saturation over the next century in response to a rather large decrease in atmospheric S deposition. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the relatively small simulated future changes in stream and soil chemistry depended on the extent to which S emissions are reduced. This projection of minimal recovery in response to large future S emissions reductions is important for designing appropriate management strategies for acid-impacted water and soil resources. Exploratory analyses were conducted to put some of the major modeling uncertainties into perspective.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bulger, A. J., Cosby, B. J., Dolloff, C. A., Eshleman, K. N., Webb, J. R., Galloway, J. N. (1999). SNP:FISH. Shenandoah National Park: fish in sensitive habitats. project final report—Vol. II. stream water chemistry and discharge, and synoptic water quality surveys. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA.
Byun, D. W., & Ching, J. K. S. (1999). Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, EPA/600/R-99/030. Washington, DC: U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development.
Cook, R. B., Elwood, J. W., Turner, R. R., Bogle, M. A., Mulholland, P. J., & Palumbo, A. V. (1994). Acid-base chemistry of high-elevation streams in the Great Smoky Mountains. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 72, 331–356.
Cosby, B. J., Wright, R. F., Hornberger, G. M., & Galloway, J. N. (1985a). Modelling the effects of acid deposition: assessment of a lumped parameter model of soil water and streamwater chemistry. Water Resources Research, 21, 51–63.
Cosby, B. J., Wright, R. F., Hornberger, G. M., & Galloway, J. N. (1985b). Modelling the effects of acid deposition: estimation of long-term water quality responses in a small forested catchment. Water Resources Research, 21, 1591–1601.
Cosby, B. J., Hornberger, G. M., Ryan, P. F., & Wolock, D. M. (1989). MAGIC/DDRP final report, project completion report. Corvallis, OR: U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Direct/Delayed Response Project.
Cosby, B. J., Jenkins, A., Ferrier, R. C., Miller, J. D., & Walker, T. A. B. (1990). Modelling stream acidification in afforested catchments: Long-term reconstructions at two sites in central Scotland. Journal of Hydrology, 120, 143–162.
Cosby, B. J., Norton, S. A., & Kahl, J. S. (1996). Using a paired-catchment manipulation experiment to evaluate a catchment-scale biogeochemical model. The Science of the Total Environment, 183, 49–66.
Cosby, B. J., Ferrier, R. C., Jenkins, A., & Wright, R. F. (2001). Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 5, 499–517.
Elliott, K. J., Vose, J. M., Knoepp, J. D., Johnson, D. W., Swank, W. J., & Jackson, W. (2008). Simulated effects of altered atmospheric sulfur deposition on nutrient cycling in Class I Wilderness Areas in western North Carolina. Journal of Environmental Quality, 37, 1419–1431.
Grimm, J. W., & Lynch, J. A. (1997). Enhanced wet deposition estimates using modeled precipitation inputs. Final report to the USDA Forest Service, Northeast Forest Experiment Station, Northern Global Change Research Program (23–721).
Hornberger, G. M., Cosby, B. J., & Wright, R. F. (1989). Historical reconstructions and future forecasts of regional surface water acidification in southernmost Norway. Water Resources Research, 25, 2009–2018.
Jenkins, A., Cosby, B. J., Ferrier, R. C., Walker, T. A. B., & Miller, J. D. (1990a). Modelling stream acidification in afforested catchments: An assessment of the relative effects of acid deposition and afforestation. Journal of Hydrology, 120, 163–181.
Jenkins, A., Whitehead, P. G., Cosby, B. J., & Birks, H. J. B. (1990b). Modelling long-term acidification: A comparison with diatom reconstructions and the implication for reversibility. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B, 327, 435–440.
Jenkins, A., Whitehead, P. G., Musgrove, T. J., & Cosby, B. J. (1990c). A regional model of acidification in Wales. Journal of Hydrology, 116, 403–416.
National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). (1991). Integrated assessment report. Washington, DC: National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program.
Norton, S. A., Wright, R. F., Kahl, J. S., & Schofield, J. P. (1992). The MAGIC simulation of surface water at, and first year results from, the Bear Brook Watershed Manipulation, Maine, USA. Environmental Pollution, 77, 279–286.
Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K., & Belitz, K. (1994). Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences. Science, 263, 641–646.
Shannon, J. D. (1998). Calculation of trends from 1900 through 1990 for sulfur and NO x -N deposition concentrations of sulfate and nitrate in precipitation, and atmospheric concentrations of SO x and NO x species over the Southern Appalachians. April: Report to SAMI. 1998.
Sullivan, T. J. (1993). Whole ecosystem nitrogen effects research in Europe. Environmental Science & Technology, 27(8), 1482–1486.
Sullivan, T. J. (2000). Aquatic effects of acidic deposition (p. 373). Boca Raton: Lewis Publ.
Sullivan, T. J., & Cosby, B. J. (1998). Modeling the concentration of aluminum in surface waters. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 105, 643–659.
Sullivan, T. J., & Cosby, B. J. (2002). Critical loads of sulfur deposition to protect streams within Joyce Kilmer and Shining Rock Wilderness areas from future acidification. Report prepared for USDA Forest Service, Asheville, NC. Corvallis, OR: E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc.
Sullivan, T. J., & Cosby, B. J. (2004). Aquatic critical load development for the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia. Report Prepared for USDA Forest Service, Monongahela National Forest, Elkins, WV. Corvallis, OR: E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc.
Sullivan, T. J., Cosby, B. J., Webb, J. R., Snyder, K. U., Herlihy, A. T., Bulger, A. J., et al. (2002a). Assessment of the effects of acidic deposition on aquatic resources in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Report prepared for the Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative (SAMI). Corvallis, OR: E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc.
Sullivan, T. J., Johnson, D. W., & Munson, R. (2002b). Assessment of effects of acid deposition on forest resources in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Report prepared for the Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative (SAMI). Corvallis: E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc.
Sullivan, T. J., Cosby, B. J., Herlihy, A. T., Webb, J. R., Bulger, A. J., Snyder, K. U., et al. (2004). Regional model projections of future effects of sulfur and nitrogen deposition on streams in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Water Resources Research, 40(2), W02101. doi:10.1029/2003WR001998.
Sullivan, T. J., Cosby, B. J., Snyder, K. U., Herlihy, A. T., Jackson, B. (2007). Model-based assessment of the effects of acidic deposition on sensitive watershed resources in the national forests of North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Final report prepared for USDA Forest Service, Asheville, NC. Corvallis, OR: E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. http://www.fs.fed.us/air/documents/MAGIC_Modeling_Report_October_2007.pdf.
Sullivan, T. J., Cosby, B. J., Webb, J. R., Dennis, R. L., Bulger, A. J., & Deviney, F. A., Jr. (2008). Streamwater acid–base chemistry and critical loads of atmospheric sulfur deposition in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 137, 85–99.
Wigington, P. J., Baker, J. P., DeWalle, D. R., Kretser, W. A., Murdoch, P. S., Simonin, H. A., et al. (1993). Episodic acidification of streams in the northeastern United States: Chemical and biological results of the Episodic Response Project. EPA/600/R-93/190, Washington, DC: U. S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Wright, R. F., Cosby, B. J., Flaten, M. B., & Reuss, J. O. (1990). Evaluation of an acidification model with data from manipulated catchments in Norway. Nature, 343, 53–55.
Wright, R. F., Lotse, E., & Semb, E. (1994). Experimental acidification of alpine catchments at Sogndal, Norway: Results after 8 years. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 72, 297–315.
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by a contract from the U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station, to E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. Interpolated wet deposition estimates were provided by J. Grimm. This manuscript has not been subjected to agency review, and no official endorsement is implied.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sullivan, T.J., Cosby, B.J., Jackson, W.A. et al. Acidification and Prognosis for Future Recovery of Acid-Sensitive Streams in the Southern Blue Ridge Province. Water Air Soil Pollut 219, 11–26 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-010-0680-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-010-0680-x