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Variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Runoff Parameters for Hydrological Modeling of a Real Peri-urban Ungauged Basin

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new multi-step approach for sensitivity assessment of surface runoff parameters. The procedure has been tested on a peri-urban basin in southern Italy, interested by intense urbanization. The basin has limited data about land characteristics, and nearby precipitation measurements are not available. Accordingly, rainfall events are defined based on depth-duration-frequency curve valid for the area. The main novelties of the work are to provide a general framework for assessing the influence of runoff parameters (i.e. depression storage and surface roughness) for a basin model in SWMM in relation to rain events of various intensity/duration, and to provide a ranking of crucial parameters significantly affecting peak discharge and total volume of the hydrograph, for an ungauged basin, by means the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). Results indicate the dependence on rainfall characteristics of the relative importance of the parameters describing the pervious and impervious areas. Notably, the peak discharge of the shortest considered event is influenced only by the two parameters of the impervious area, while the opposite holds for the longest rain event. The total runoff volume is mostly influenced by the depression storage of impervious areas, with the parameters of pervious areas becoming more influential for longer rain events. Results allow a clear interpretation of the modelled physical processes variability within the basin and their relationship with rainfall/areas features, thus providing useful insights for key parameter definition in other contexts and for other models.

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Data Availability

Data, models, and codes generated or used for this study are available from the corresponding author on request.

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Acknowledgements

This research is part of the activities financed with the awarding of the V:ALERE:2019 project of the Università degli Studi della Campania “L. Vanvitelli”. Support from Italian MIUR and University of Pavia is acknowledged within the Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027 programme.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Architettura, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, 27100, Pavia, Italy

    C. Giudicianni

  2. Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi della Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, via Roma 29, 81031, Aversa, Italy

    I. Di Cicco, A. Di Nardo & R. Greco

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  1. C. Giudicianni
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  2. I. Di Cicco
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  3. A. Di Nardo
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  4. R. Greco
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Contributions

Conceptualization: [Carlo Giudicianni, Roberto Greco]; Methodology: [Carlo Giudicianni, Roberto Greco]; Formal analysis, investigation and data curation: [Irene Di Cicco, Carlo Giudicianni]; Validation: [Carlo Giudicianni, Armando Di Nardo, Roberto Greco]; Writing - original draft preparation: [Irene Di Cicco, Carlo Giudicianni]; Writing - review and editing: [Carlo Giudicianni, Armando Di Nardo, Roberto Greco]; Supervision: [Armando Di Nardo, Roberto Greco]

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Correspondence to C. Giudicianni.

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Giudicianni, C., Di Cicco, I., Di Nardo, A. et al. Variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Runoff Parameters for Hydrological Modeling of a Real Peri-urban Ungauged Basin. Water Resour Manage 38, 3007–3022 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-024-03802-2

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