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Estimation of River High Flow Discharges Using Friction-Slope Method and Hybrid Models

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Abstract

Accurately estimating river water flow during floods is crucial to water resource management, dam reservoir operation, and flood mitigation strategies. Although hydrological models for flood prediction have improved, they still face constraints and make inaccurate forecasts. Hydraulic models face uncertainties related to riverbed Manning roughness coefficient and energy slope. This study employs a novel Friction-Slope (α parameter) method to estimate flood discharge. Investigation focuses on three alluvial rivers in Golestan, Iran. The computation method uses the Manning formula and accounts for river energy slope and riverbed Manning roughness coefficient. The α parameter is calculated using easy-to-access river cross-section variables: flow depth, area, and hydraulic radius. SVR-PSO, SVR-GWO, and SVR-RSM hybrid methods are used to achieve this. Calculated river flow discharges are compared to measured data. Statistical evaluation criteria like R2, MAE, RMSE, and conformity index determined the hybrid models' optimal structures. The SVR-RSM model had the highest accuracy during testing, with an R2 value of 0.97, MAE of 0.22, RMSE of 1.66, and d of 0.99. Once the α parameter was determined using the RSM-SVR model, river flow discharges were calculated and compared to observed values. The testing phase produced the most accurate results, with R2 = 0.88, MAE = 0.15, RMSE = 0.41, and d = 0.98.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

    Fatemeh Shirazi, Abdolreza Zahiri & Amir Ahmad Dehghani

  2. Department of Water Engineering, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

    Jamshid Piri

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  1. Fatemeh Shirazi
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  2. Abdolreza Zahiri
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  4. Amir Ahmad Dehghani
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The authors participated in (a) conceptualizing and designing the study, or analyzing and interpreting the results; (b) drafting or revising it critically for important intellectual content; and (c) approving the final article. There is no other journal or publication venue under review of this manuscript, nor is it being submitted. Neither the authors nor any organization involved with the topic discussed in this manuscript has a direct or indirect financial interest in it.

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Highlights

• The flood discharge estimation based on a new method of Friction-Slope or α parameter has been discussed for three alluvial rivers.

• In the proposed method, α parameter is based on the Manning formula and considers the effects of the energy slope of the river, as well as the Manning roughness coefficient of the riverbed.

• Different hybrid methods of SVR-PSO, SVR- GWO, and SVR-RSM have been used for calculation of α parameter.

• The SVR-RSM can excellently perform in the prediction of river flow discharges.

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Shirazi, F., Zahiri, A., Piri, J. et al. Estimation of River High Flow Discharges Using Friction-Slope Method and Hybrid Models. Water Resour Manage 38, 1099–1123 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03711-w

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