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Integration of Exponential Weighted Moving Average Chart in Ensemble of Precipitation of Multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs)

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Abstract

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are globally accepted simulations used for modeling and forecasting of precipitation and other parameters of climate. However, discrepancies among GCMs reduce the scope of individual models. In this regard, a multimodel ensemble provides a more accurate picture than individual models. However, the presence of extreme values and outliers in GCMs makes ensemble inappropriate for statistical analysis and reanalysis. In this article, we propose a novel weighting scheme that integrates the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) chart to obtain optimum weights for ensemble means of multiple GCMs – EWMA-based Ensemble (EWMABE). To investigate the validity of EWMABE, we used precipitation data of eighteen GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, the performance of EWMABE is compared with Multi-Model Simple Averaging Ensemble (MMSAE). The comparative statistics show that the EWMABE scheme has significantly improved the multimodel estimates. These results suggests the potential candidacy of EWMABE for the estimation of multimodel ensemble.

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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Funding

The current research is a part of a funded research project awarded by the University of the Punjab Lahore, Pakistan (2022). Therefore, the authors are thankful to the project awarding institution.

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  1. College of Statistical Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

    Muhammad Shakeel & Zulfiqar Ali

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  1. Muhammad Shakeel
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  2. Zulfiqar Ali
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Contributions

Muhammad Shakeel and Zulfiqar Ali conceived the presented idea. Muhammad Shakeel developed the theory and performed the computations. Zulfiqar Ali verified the analytical methods and computations. Both the authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Zulfiqar Ali.

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Shakeel, M., Ali, Z. Integration of Exponential Weighted Moving Average Chart in Ensemble of Precipitation of Multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs). Water Resour Manage 38, 935–949 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03702-x

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