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Evaluation of the Complementary Characteristics for Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydro Hybrid System Considering Multiple Uncertainties in the Medium and Long Term

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Abstract

Quantifying the complementary characteristics of the wind-photovoltaic-hydro(W-PV-H) system under multiple uncertainties is very important for the planning and operation of W-PV-H system. Due to the randomness of hydrometeorological elements, W-PV-H system has multiple uncertainties which is difficult to describe. Besides, the complementarity of W-PV-H system with three energy sources cannot be directly clarified by the available indicators, which brings challenges to the development of W-PV-H system. To reveal the complementary mechanism of W-PV-H system under multiple uncertainties, the Asymmetric Archimedean Copula (AAC) based on the fully nested method and the maximum possible weight function are combined to characterize the multiple uncertainties of W-PV-H system. Then the comprehensive complementarity coefficient(CCC) is established by coupling spatial coordinates and compromise planningto quantify the complementary characteristics of W-PV-H system. The method proposed in this paper is applied to the upper reaches of the Yellow River. The results show that AAC has advantages in constructing joint probability distributions compared with Symmetric Archimedean Copula. The most probable solutions under multiple return periods are all located near the cumulative frequency contour. Under various joint probabilities, the CCCs in the study area are all greater than 0.5, which indicates that the W-PV-H system has certain complementarity in medium-long-term. The medium-long-term complementarity in wind-hydro and PV-hydro are better, and the complementarity in wind-PV is the worst. Morever, the medium-long-term compensation relationship in W-PV-H system is revealed through two models with the participation of wind and PV power or not.

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The authors confirm that all data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author by reasonable request.

Code Availability

The code that supports the findings of this study is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Funding

The work described in this paper was supported by the Scientific Research Projects of Henan Province (No.202102310296), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52109041) and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2021M690139).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China

    Lu Lu

  2. Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China

    Lu Lu, Wenlin Yuan, Hongshi Xu, Chengguo Su & Zening Wu

  3. Water Resources Department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Denghua Yan

Authors
  1. Lu Lu
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  2. Wenlin Yuan
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  3. Hongshi Xu
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  4. Chengguo Su
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  5. Denghua Yan
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  6. Zening Wu
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Methodology, Writing-Review & Editing were performed by Lu Lu. Software, Writing-Original Draft, Validation, Funding acquisition were performed by Wenlin Yuan. Conceptualization, Supervision, Project administration, Writing-Review &Editing were performed by Hongshi Xu. Investigation was performed by Chengguo Su. Data Curation was performed by Denghua Yan. Formal analysis was performed by Zening Wu.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hongshi Xu.

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Lu, L., Yuan, W., Xu, H. et al. Evaluation of the Complementary Characteristics for Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydro Hybrid System Considering Multiple Uncertainties in the Medium and Long Term. Water Resour Manage 38, 793–814 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03699-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03699-3

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