Abstract
Water conflicts (WACT) in shared river basins have become one of the factors that restrict regional economic development and social stability. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate water conflict risk (WACR) when managing transboundary river basins. In this research article, in order to accurately and effectively forecast the water conflict risk level, a three-stage process is implemented. Firstly, an evaluation framework for WACR was constructed. The framework consists of four drivers of water conflict: conflict because of water quantity reduction, conflict as a result of differences in water use efficiency, conflict due to disparities in economic and social value of water, and conflict caused by the differences on the amount of water allocated to ensure the integrity of the ecological environment. Secondly, a conflict risk evaluation model was established based on subtraction set pair potential to assess the static evaluation of the WACR. Thirdly, the Grey correlation model is used to forecast data to dynamically predict WACR in the future. The Mekong River Basin (MRB) was selected as a case study to test the validity of the framework. Hence, the following results are obtained: (1) The risk of water conflict in the MRB is always at a medium level. (2) China has the highest risk of water quantity conflict. Laos and Myanmar have a very high water efficiency conflict risk. The risk of economic and social conflict in Cambodia, Myanmar, and Vietnam is at a medium degree. The risk of ecological environmental conflict in Laos and Thailand is at a medium level. (3) From 2022 to 2027, WACT in the MRB decreased to a low risk. Based on this, risk prevention measures are put forward for water cooperation in the MRB.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of Data and Materials
Data from this work is available upon request.
References
Chen X, Zheng Y, Xu B, Wang L, Han F, Zhang C (2020) Balancing competing interests in the Mekong River Basin via the operation of cascade hydropower reservoirs in China: Insights from system modeling. J Clean Prod 254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.119967
Chong T, Yi S, Heng C (2017) Application of set pair analysis method on occupational hazard of coal mining. Saf Sci 92:10–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2016.09.005
Degefu DM, He W, Yuan L, Zhao JH (2016) Water allocation in transboundary river basins under water scarcity: a cooperative bargaining approach. Water Resour Manag 30(12):4451–4466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1431-6
Ercin AE, Hoekstra AY (2014) Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis. Environ Int 64:71–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.019
Falkenmark M (1989) The massive water scarcity now threatening Africa: Why isn't it being addressed? Ambio 18(2)
Gillet V, McKay J, Keremane G (2014) Moving from local to State water governance to resolve a local conflict between irrigated agriculture and commercial forestry in South Australia. J Hydrol 519:2456–2467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.031
Gu X, Gu L, Wang D, Jamshidi S (2023) Resolving trans-boundary water conflicts: Third-party mediation using an inverse approach of GMCR under incomplete preference environments. Water Resour Manag. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03643-5
Gunasekara NK, Kazama S, Yamazaki D, Oki T (2013) Water conflict risk due to water resource availability and unequal distribution. Water Resour Manag 28(1):169–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0478-x
He W, Zhang K, Kong Y, Yuan L, Peng Q, Degefu DM, Ramsey TS, Meng X (2023) Reduction pathways identification of agricultural water pollution in Hubei Province, China. Ecol Indic 153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110464
Hou Z, Lu W, Xue H, Lin J (2017) A comparative research of different ensemble surrogate models based on set pair analysis for the DNAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation strategy optimization. J Contam Hydrol 203:28–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2017.06.003
Hu Q, Shi G, Huang T, Liu W (2007) Application of nonlinear FCA model to risk evaluation of conflicts of river basin water resources. Adv Sci Technol Water Resour (02):6–9
Huang Z, Yuan X, Liu X (2021) The key drivers for the changes in global water scarcity: Water withdrawal versus water availability. J Hydrol 601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126658
Irannezhad M, Ahmadi B, Liu J, Chen D, Matthews JH (2022) Global water security: A shining star in the dark sky of achieving the sustainable development goals. Sustain Horiz 1. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.horiz.2021.100005
Jin J, Chen P, Zhang H, Li J, He J, Chen M (2020) Five-variable subtraction set pair potential and its application in trend analysis of water resources carrying capacity. J North China Univ Water Resour Elect Power (Nat Sci Ed) 41:30–35. https://doi.org/10.19760/j.ncwu.zk
Khan AM, Osińska M (2023) Comparing forecasting accuracy of selected grey and time series models based on energy consumption in Brazil and India. Expert Syst Appl 212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118840
Kong Y, He W, Shen J, Yuan L, Gao X, Ramsey TS, Peng Q, Degefu DM, Sun F (2023) Adaptability analysis of water pollution and advanced industrial structure in Jiangsu Province, China. Ecol Model 481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110365
Kong Y, He W, Zhang Z, Shen J, Yuan L, Gao X, An M, Ramsey TS (2022) Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors decomposition of agricultural grey water footprint in China. J Environ Manag 318:115601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115601
Li B, Tian C, Shi Z, Han Z (2020a) Evolution and differentiation of high-quality development of marine economy: A case study from China. Complexity 2020:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/5624961
Li W, Hai X, Han L, Mao J, Tian M (2020b) Does urbanization intensify regional water scarcity? Evidence and implications from a megaregion of China. J Clean Prod 244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118592
Lin C-H, Chen W-H (2023) A technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework based on scientometry for understanding the risk factors in sustainable water resources management. Water Resour Manag. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03634-6
Lu S, Lian Z, Sun H, Wu X, Bai X, Wang C (2021) Simulating trans-boundary watershed water resources conflict. Resour Policy 73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102139
Mianabadi H, Alioghli S, Morid S (2021) Quantitative evaluation of ‘No-harm’ rule in international transboundary water law in the Helmand River basin. J Hydrol 599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126368
Ohlsson L (2000) Water conflicts and social resource scarcity. In Phys Chem Earth Part B Hydrol Oceans Atmos 25:213–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(00)00006-X
Peña-Ramos JA, Bagus P, Fursova D (2021) Water conflicts in central Asia: Some recommendations on the non-conflictual use of water. Sustainability 13(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063479
Peng X, Garg H, Luo Z (2023) When content-centric networking meets multi-criteria group decision-making: Optimal cache placement policy achieved by MARCOS with q-rung orthopair fuzzy set pair analysis. Eng Appl Artif Intell 123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2023.106231
Philpot S, Hipel K, Johnson P (2016) Strategic analysis of a water rights conflict in the south western United States. J Environ Manag 180:247–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.05.027
Studart TMDC, Campos JNB, Souza Filho FAD, Pinheiro MIT, Barros LS (2021) Turbulent waters in Northeast Brazil: A typology of water governance-related conflicts. Environ Sci Policy 126:99–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.014
Unfried K, Kis-Katos K, Poser T (2022) Water scarcity and social conflict. J Environ Econ Manag 113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102633
Wang H, Zhang Z (2022) Forecasting Chinese provincial carbon emissions using a novel grey prediction model considering spatial correlation. Expert Syst Appl 209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118261
Wang X, Yang H, Shi M, Zhou D, Zhang Z (2015) Managing stakeholders' conflicts for water reallocation from agriculture to industry in the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China. Sci Total Environ 505:823–832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.063
Wang Z-X, Li Q, Pei L-L (2018) A seasonal GM(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors. Energy 154:522–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.155
Wu X, Xu C, Pang Q (2017) Analysis on driving effect of the urbanization development speed on water resources conflict. Math Probl Eng 2017:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6810120
Xue Y, Chen Y, Zeng W (2020) between upstream and downstream in a basin based on water footprints and rough sets. J Econ Water Resour 38:43–49. https://doi.org/10.3880/j.issn.1003-9511.2020.06.009
Yin J, Tsai FTC (2020) Bayesian set pair analysis and machine learning based ensemble surrogates for optimal multi-aquifer system remediation design. J Hydrol 580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124280
Yoffe S, Wolf AT, Giordano M (2003) Conflict and cooperation over international freshwater resources: Indicators of basins at risr. J Am Water Resour Assoc 39(5):1109–1126. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x
Yuan L, He W, Degefu DM, Liao Z, Wu X, An M, Ramsey TS (2020) Transboundary water sharing problem; a theoretical analysis using evolutionary game and system dynamics. J Hydrol 582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124521
Yuan L, Li R, He W, Wu X, Kong Y, Degefu DM, Ramsey TS (2022) Coordination of the Industrial-Ecological Economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. China. Front Environ Sci 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.882221
Yuan L, Wu X, He W, Degefu DM, Kong Y, Yang Y, Xu S, Ramsey TS (2023a) Utilizing the strategic concession behavior in a bargaining game for optimal allocation of water in a transboundary river basin during water bankruptcy. Environ Impact Assess Rev 102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107162
Yuan L, Wu X, He W, Kong Y, Degefu DM, Ramsey TS (2023b) Using the fuzzy evidential reasoning approach to assess and forecast the water conflict risk in transboundary Rivers: A case study of the Mekong river basin. J Hydrol 625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130090
Zeitoun M, Mirumachi N (2008) Transboundary water interaction I: reconsidering conflict and cooperation. Int Environ Agreem Polit Law Econ 8(4):297–316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-008-9083-5
Zeng J, Huang G (2018) Set pair analysis for karst waterlogging risk assessment based on AHP and entropy weight. Hydrol Res 49(4):1143–1155. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.265
Zhang C, Tang Q, Chen D (2017) Recent changes in the moisture source of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. J Clim 30(5):1807–1819. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0842.1
Zhang Y, Khan SU, Swallow B, Liu W, Zhao M (2022a) Coupling coordination analysis of China’s water resources utilization efficiency and economic development level. J Clean Prod 373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133874
Zhang Y, Zhang Y, Zhang H, Zhang Y (2022b) Evaluation on new first-tier smart cities in China based on entropy method and TOPSIS. Ecol Indic 145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109616
Zhou R, Jin J, Cui Y, Ning S, Bai X, Zhang L, Zhou Y, Wu C, Tong F (2022) Agricultural drought vulnerability assessment and diagnosis based on entropy fuzzy pattern recognition and subtraction set pair potential. Alex Eng J 61(1):51–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.04.090
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 72104127, LIANG YUAN, 71874101, LIANG YUAN, Ministry of Education (MOE) of China, Project of Humanities and Social Sciences, No. 20YJCGJW009, LIANG YUAN.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Liang Yuan: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – original draft. Chenyuan Liu: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – original draft. Weijun He: Writing – original draft. Xia Wu: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – review & editing. Yang Kong: Conceptualization, Methodology. Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu: Writing – original draft. Thomas Stephen Ramsey: Writing – review & editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethical Approval
Not applicable.
Consent to Participate
Not applicable.
Consent to Publish
All authors consent to the publication.
Competing Interests
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest with regard to the publication of this paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Yuan, L., Liu, C., Wu, X. et al. A Set Pair Analysis Method for Assessing and Forecasting Water Conflict Risk in Transboundary River Basins. Water Resour Manage 38, 775–791 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03698-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03698-4