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Integration of Three Standardized Drought Indices utilizing Modified Triple Collocation and Scaled Triple Collocation relative to Triple Collocation

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Abstract

Droughts have a detrimental effect on plenty of social and economic endeavors along with surface and groundwater resources. Therefore, drought must be adequately considered when planning and regulating the water supply. This study will look at the latest developments in merging techniques to lessen the inconsistent drought monitoring and characterization attributed to the global standard shortage. The current research considers the framework of three distinct standardized indicators, SPI, SPTI, and SPEI, of six metrological stations in Pakistan from 1971 to 2017, intending to analyze drought using integrating techniques. Two merging techniques, Modified Triple Collocation (MTC) and proposed Scaled Triple Collocation (STC), are examined relative to Triple Collocation (TC). Correlation, Sen’s Slope, Taylor diagram, Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and error variance analyses were used to evaluate their performance. The correlation study reveals that individual series have a comparable relationship with Merged Drought Index (MDI) model from MTC, STC, and TC. However, individual indices SPI and SPTI are strongly associated with MTC and STC-based MDI compared to SPEI. Sen's slope shows the same trend across all approaches with minimal amplitude divergence. KGE was assessed using an average of one hundred thousand simulated values, and STC and TC demonstrated higher efficiency than MTC. But MTC has a lower error variance in contrast to STC and TC. Overall, the current study's findings validate that Merged Drought Index (MDI) based on MTC and proposed STC provides a better quantitative way to merge three separate drought indices into a single index. So, MDI successfully captured recorded drought episodes throughout the research locations, indicating that the merging method can be a workable option to identify drought accurately.

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Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

Their authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Khalid University for funding this work through the Large Groups Project under grant number (RGP.2/44/44). And this study was supported via funding from Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University project number (PSAU/2023/R/1444).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Zanib Badar & Ijaz Hussain

  2. Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences and Arts (Muhyil), King Khalid University, Muhyil, 61421, Saudi Arabia

    Mohammed M. A. Almazah

  3. Mathematics Department, College of Humanities and Science, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Aflaj, Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia

    Fuad S. Al-Duais & A. Y. Al-Rezami

  4. Research Coordinator BRACE-RSPN Rural Support Programmes Network (RSPN) 3rd Floor, IRM Complex, Plot # 7, Sunrise Avenue (Off Park Road) Near COMSATS University, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Sulaman Ijaz

Authors
  1. Zanib Badar
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  2. Mohammed M. A. Almazah
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  3. Ijaz Hussain
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  4. Fuad S. Al-Duais
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  5. A. Y. Al-Rezami
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Contributions

Zanib Badar developed modifications, performed analysis, and prepared the initial draft of the manuscript. Mohammed M. A. Almazah and Ijaz Hussain proposed and supervised the research work, providing a conducive research environment. Muhammad Sulaman Ijaz improved the initial manuscript draft and helped create figures. Fuad S. Al-Duais and A. Y.Al-Rezami suggested further improvements in figures, tables, and formatting and reviewed the manuscript critically. Ijaz Hussain finally proofread the manuscript and submitted it.

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Correspondence to Ijaz Hussain.

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Badar, Z., Almazah, M.M.A., Hussain, I. et al. Integration of Three Standardized Drought Indices utilizing Modified Triple Collocation and Scaled Triple Collocation relative to Triple Collocation. Water Resour Manage 37, 5081–5103 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03596-9

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