Abstract
Crop productivity is a highly vulnerable criterion to drought onset and offset. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the crop-drought relationship from the perspective of climate change for sustainable development in agricultural practices. Aurangabad and Pune districts in the state of Maharashtra are considered as the study area. The temporal evolution of the Standardised Yield Residual Series (SYRS) is investigated, and then the impact of the detrended Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on different crops was studied. The future crop yields for three crops maize, cotton, and wheat, are projected based on the AquaCrop model by considering the bias-corrected ensemble Coupled Model Intercomparison Model Project Phage 6-Global Climate Models (CMIP6-GCMs) under four different Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSPs). The outcomes from the simulation indicated a high increase in crop yield, especially in the high-emission scenario (SSP585). The increase in crop productivity could be attributed to the favourable thermal range, enhanced CO2 concentration, and increase in water productivity of crops. SPEI has a moderate association with the SYRS at various crop productivity phases. The greatest yield-drought relationship existed for wheat and the least for maize during the study period for the Aurangabad region for the Reference Period (RP). Cotton is expected to be more sensitive to drought onset in the future for the Pune region. This approach can assist stakeholders to understand better the impact of drought on the agricultural sectors, which is critical for reducing adverse situations related to drought.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
All data are available in the given website.
Code Availability
All codes are available from the corresponding author.
References
Aadhar S, Mishra V (2020) Increased drought risk in South Asia under warming climate: Implications of uncertainty in potential evapotranspiration estimates. J Hydrometeorol 21(12):2979-2996. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0224.1
Bhatt D, Maskey S, Babel MS, Uhlenbrook S, Prasad KC (2014) Climate trends and impacts on crop production in the Koshi River basin of Nepal. Reg Environ Chang 14:1291–1301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0576-6
Bird DN, Benabdallah S, Gouda N, Hummel F, Koeberl J, Jeunesse L, Woess-Gallasch S (2016) Modelling climate change impacts on and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk. Sci Total Environ 543:1019–1027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.035
Davis KF, Chhatre A, Rao ND, Singh D, DeFries R (2019) Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India. Environ Res Lett 14(6):064013
Dixit S, Atla BM, Jayakumar KV (2022) Evolution and drought hazard mapping of future meteorological and hydrological droughts using CMIP6 model. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 36(11):3857–3874
Dixit S, Jayakumar KV (2021) Spatio-temporal analysis of copula-based probabilistic multivariate drought index using CMIP6 model. Int J Climatol 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7469
Dubey SK, Tripathi SK, Pranuthi G, Yadav R (2014) Impact of projected climate change on wheat varieties in Uttarakhand, India. J Agrometeorology 16(1):26–37. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v16i1.1482
Foster T, Brozović N, Butler AP, Neale CMU, Raes D, Steduto P, Hsiao TC (2017) AquaCrop-OS: an open source version of FAO’s crop water productivity model. Agric Water Manag 181:18–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.11.015
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2003) Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. Geophys Res Lett 30(12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017130
Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1(2):96–99
Hsiao TC, Heng L, Steduto P, Rojas-Lara B, Raes D, Fereres E (2009) AquaCrop-the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: III. Parameterization and testing for maize. Agron J 101(3):448–459
IPCC (2013) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Phys Sci Basis
Kang H, Sridhar V, Mainuddin M, Trung LD (2021) Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin. Sci Rep 11(1):9383
Kim JH, Sung JH, Shahid S, Chung ES (2022) Future hydrological drought analysis considering agricultural water withdrawal under SSP scenarios. Water Resour Manag 36(9):2913–2930
Kumar M (2016) Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security. Environ Monit Assess 188(8):1–14
Kumar S, Dwivedi SK, Basu S, Kumar G, Mishra JS, Koley TK, Kumar A (2020) Anatomical, agro-morphological and physiological changes in rice under cumulative and stage specific drought conditions prevailed in eastern region of India. Field Crops Res 245:107658
Liu X, Pan Y, Zhu X, Yang T, Bai J, Sun Z (2018) Drought evolution and its impact on the crop yield in the North China Plain. J Hydrol 564:984–996. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.077
Lobell DB, Gourdji SM (2012) The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant Physiol 160(4):1686-1697
Lu J, Carbone GJ, Gao P (2017) Detrending crop yield data for spatial visualization of drought impacts in the United States, 1895–2014. Agric For Meteorol 237:196–208
Madadgar S, AghaKouchak A, Farahmand A, Davis SJ (2017) Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production. Geophys Res Lett 44(15):7799–7807. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073606
Masud MB, Qian B, Faramarzi M (2020) Performance of multivariate and multiscalar drought indices in identifying impacts on crop production. Int J Climatol 40(1):292–307. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6210
Mckee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. Proc Conf Appl Climatol 17:179–184
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391(1–2):202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Mishra V, Aadhar S, Asoka A, Pai S, Kumar R (2016) On the frequency of the 2015 monsoon season drought in the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Geophys Res Lett 43(23):12–102. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071407
Mishra V, Bhatia U, Tiwari AD (2020) Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from coupled model intercomparison project-6. Scientific Data 7(1):338
Mohammadi S, Rydgren K, Bakkestuen V, Gillespie MA (2023) Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway. Sci Rep 13(1):3633
Monteith JL (1965) Evaporation and environment. Symposia of the society for experimental biology, vol 19. Cambridge University Press (CUP) Cambridge, pp 205–234
Nath R, Nath D, Li Q, Chen W, Cui X (2017) Impact of drought on agriculture in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, India. Adv Atmos Sci 34(3):335–346
Ombadi M, Nguyen P, Sorooshian S, Hsu KL (2021) Retrospective analysis and bayesian model averaging of CMIP6 precipitation in the Nile River Basin. J Hydrometeorol 22(1):217–229. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0157.1
Padhiary J, Patra KC, Dash SS (2022) A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario. Water Resources Manag 36(13):5163-5189
Pai DS, Rajeevan M, Sreejith OP, Mukhopadhyay B, Satbha NS (2014) Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25 × 0.25) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region. Mausam 65(1):1–18
Penman HL (1948) Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proc Royal Soc Lond Ser Math Phys Sci 193(1032):120–145
Potopová V, Štěpánek P, Možný M, Türkott L, Soukup J (2015) Performance of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index at various lags for agricultural drought risk assessment in the Czech Republic. Agric For Meteorol 202:26–38
Potopová V, Trnka M, Hamouz P, Soukup J, Castraveț T (2020) Statistical modelling of drought-related yield losses using soil moisture-vegetation remote sensing and multiscalar indices in the south-eastern Europe. Agric Water Manage 236:106168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106168
Raes D, Fereres E, Vila MG, Curnel Y, Knoded D, Çelik SK, Ucar Y, Türk M, Wellens J (2023) Simulation of alfalfa yield with AquaCrop. Agric Water Manag 284:108341
Rehana S, Naidu GS (2021) Development of hydro-meteorological drought index under climate change–semi-arid river basin of Peninsular India. J Hydrol 594:125973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125973
Sharma, B., Basumatary, N. R., Nahar, S.,& Tanti, B.(2016). Effect of drought stress on morpho-physiological traits of in some traditional rice cultivars of Kokrajhar district,Assam, India. Annals of plant sciences, 5(8), 1402–1408.
Singh R, Bindal S, Gupta AK, Kumari M (2023) Drought frequency assessment and implications of climate change for Maharashtra, India. Climate Change and Environmental Impacts: Past, Present and Future Perspective. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 369–381
Sonneveld BGJS, Keyzer MA, Adegbola P, Pande S (2012) The impact of climate change on crop production in west Africa: an assessment for the oueme river basin in Benin. Water Resour Manag 26:553–579
Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Raes D, Fereres E (2009) AquaCrop-The FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: I. Concepts and underlying principles. Agron J 101(3):426–437
Srivastava AK, Rajeevan M, Kshirsagar SR (2009) Development of a high resolution daily gridded temperature data set (1969–2005) for the Indian region. Atmos Sci Lett 10(4):249-254
Subburayan S, Murugappan A, Mohan S (2011) Modified Hargreaves equation for estimation of ETo in a hot and humid location in Tamilnadu State, India. Int J Eng Sci Tech 3(1):592–600
Tegegne G, Kim YO, Lee JK (2019) Spatiotemporal reliability ensemble averaging of multimodel simulations. Geophys Res Lett 46(21):12321–12330. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083053
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2020) Implementing crop evapotranspiration in RDI for farm-level drought evaluation and adaptation under climate change conditions. Water Resour Manag 34:4329–4343
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Rev 38(1):55-94
Vema VK, Sudheer KP, Rohith AN, Chaubey I (2022) Impact of water conservation structures on the agricultural productivity in the context of climate change. Water Resour Manag 36(5):1627–1644
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Yang Y, Cui Y, Bai K, Luo T, Dai J, Wang W, Luo Y (2019) Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the reduced-set Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts. Agric Water Manag 211:70–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.09.036
Zhang W, Lei X, Liu P, Wang X, Wang H, Song P (2019) Identifying the relationship between assignments of scenario weights and their positions in the derivation of reservoir operating rules under climate change. Water Resour Manag 33:261–279
Zarei AR, Shabani A, Mahmoudi MR (2020) Evaluation of the influence of occurrence time of drought on the annual yield of rain-fed winter wheat using backward multiple generalized estimation equation. Water Resources Manag 34:2911-2931
Funding
None.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Soumyashree Dixit-Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Software, Validation, Visualization and Writing – original draft; K V Jayakumar-Project administration, Supervision and Writing – review & editing.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Dixit, S., Neethin, V. & Jayakumar, K.V. Assessment of Crop-Drought Relationship: A Climate Change Perspective. Water Resour Manage 37, 4075–4095 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03540-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03540-x