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Assessing the Impact of Land-Use Dynamics to Predict the Changes in Hydrological Variables Using Effective Impervious Area (EIA)

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Abstract

The present research examines the hydrological impacts of historical and future land use land cover (LULC) in a part of the Yamuna River basin. The GIS-Curve Number (CN) approach for calculating effective impervious area (EIA) for larger ungauged basins is evaluated and validated with the directly connected impervious area (DCIA) measured using spatial data. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used at daily intervals to simulate hydrological responses in different land-use scenarios (years 2005, 2010, 2016, and predicted 2031). The model sensitivity analysis yields SCS runoff curve number (CN2) and effective hydraulic conductivity in the main channel (CH_K2) as the most sensitive parameter. The model reaffirmed that EIA is preferable to Total Impervious Area (TIA) in runoff calculation. The observed and simulated discharge matched with each other during calibration as well as validation (R2 ≥ 0.85, NSE ≥ 0.83, and PBIAS < 5). It is observed that surface runoff is majorly affected by built-up, whereas evapotranspiration, percolation, and groundwater recharge are influenced by dense vegetation, sparse vegetation, and cropland. An increase in urbanization in all sub-basins is predicted to generate more runoff. The patterns reveal a decline in ET, percolation, and GWR in urban areas of the entire basin. During 2005–2031, an increase in surface runoff (49.2%) with a decline in percolation (-2.25%) is observed. The results indicate that groundwater resources in the basin are continuously declining, which will become more adverse with increasing urbanization. This work would be a benchmark in quantifying changes in hydrological components due to land-use alterations and evaluating runoff response concerning EIA compared to TIA. This study would provide important information to policymakers in planning and managing of land use and water resources.

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Acknowledgements

Authors thankfully acknowledge the Deanship of Scientific Research for proving administrative and financial supports. Funding for this research was given under award numbers RGP2/363/44 by the Deanship of Scientific Research; King Khalid University, Ministry of Education, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The authors are thankful to various nodal agencies such as the Irrigation & Flood Control Department (I&FC), Govt. of NCT of Delhi for sharing the discharge data and Public Works Department (PWD), Delhi Jal Board (DJB), Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) and others for extending their support in sharing details about drainage system in Yamuna river basin.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department Natural and Applied Sciences, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi, 110070, India

    Akanksha Balha, Amit Singh & Chander Kumar Singh

  2. Environment and Waste Management Division, The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India

    Suneel Pandey

  3. Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, GLA University, Mathura, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Reetesh Kumar

  4. College of Engineering, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia

    Javed Mallick

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  1. Akanksha Balha
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AB: Conceptualization; Data curation; Formal analysis; Investigation; Methodology, Validation; Visualization; Roles/Writing - original draft AS: Validation; review; editing SP: Supervision; Data curation; CKS: Conceptualization; Formal analysis; Investigation; Methodology; Resources; Software; Supervision; Writing - review & editing.

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Correspondence to Chander Kumar Singh.

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Balha, A., Singh, A., Pandey, S. et al. Assessing the Impact of Land-Use Dynamics to Predict the Changes in Hydrological Variables Using Effective Impervious Area (EIA). Water Resour Manage 37, 3999–4014 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03536-7

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