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Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project

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Abstract

Future climate change will alter regional hydrometeorological conditions, which poses significant risks to the operation of inter-basin water diversion projects in the future. Most previous studies focused on adaptive operations under climate change. Few studies examined how to best manage risks and quantify the effect of climate change on objective losses. This paper intends to present a systematic approach for runoff prediction, impact analysis on objectives, and risk assessment under climate models. The Xin’AnJiang hydrological model, single-objective and multi-objective reservoir operation models, and risk assessment model of multiple schemes are integrated into this approach. Taking the inter-basin water diversion project from Hanjiang to Weihe River as a case, the study has made three contributions. First, the negative impacts of climate change on water transfer, net power generation, and transformation ratio between them are quantified. Second, the difference in water transfer scale between single-objective and multi-objective caused by climate change is analyzed. Third, to recommend scheduling schemes balancing benefits and risks and coping strategies to help policymakers mitigate the inevitable harmful effect of climate change. Consequently, it is extremely necessary to prepare to deal with the risks of insufficient water transfer and nip them in the bud.

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Data Availability

The dataset on which this paper is based is too large to be retained or publicly archived with available resources. Documentation and data used to support this study are available from CMIP5 at The World Climate Research Programmer, NCEP, and GCM dataset at SDSM-DC (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5; https://sdsm.org.uk/data.html).

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Funding

I am very grateful to the following funds for supporting this paper: National Natural Science Foundation of China (52179025, 51879213), Project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019T120933, 2017M623332XB), Basic Research Plan of Natural Science of Shaanxi Province (2019JLM-52, 2021JLM-44), Planning project of science and technology of water resources of Shaanxi (2022slkj-2).

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Author notes

  1. Tao Bai

    Present address: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulic in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulic in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

    Lei Li & Bao-zhu Pan

  2. Shaanxi Provincial Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design, Xi’an, 710005, China

    Peng-fei Mu

  3. Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510611, China

    Jin Liu

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  1. Tao Bai
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  5. Jin Liu
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Contributions

Tao Bai: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing—Review & Editing, Project administration. Lei Li: Methodology, Formal analysis, Writing—Original Draft, Writing—review & editing. Peng-fei Mu: Data curation, Methodology, Software. Bao-zhu Pan: Supervision, Resources. Jin Liu: Conceptualization, Validation.

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Correspondence to Tao Bai.

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Bai, T., Li, L., Mu, Pf. et al. Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project. Water Resour Manage 37, 2505–2525 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03387-8

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