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How Do Sustainable Development-Induced Land Use Change and Climate Change Affect Water Balance? A Case Study of the Mun River Basin, NE Thailand

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Abstract

Thailand has set the 20-year National Strategy (2018–2037) towards sustainable development and building adaptability to climate change. The strategy promotes forestation and higher bioethanol energy demand. This study aims to investigate the effects of the climate and land-use changes on water balance in 2037, the end of the National Strategy, for the Mun River Basin, NE Thailand. The simulated climate dataset used in this study was ensemble means from IPCC AR5 Global Circulation Models for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. The land-use change was simulated using the Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the water balance (considering evapotranspiration—ET, percolation—PERC, surface runoff—SURQ, and groundwater lateral flow—LATQ). The combined effects could increase monthly ET, whereas the climate change effect could outrun the land-use changes, resulting in increasing PERC. The sustainable development under the National Strategy (2018–2037) could be insignificantly affecting the water balance, whereas the “Bioethanol-Oriented” land-use scenario could increase SURQ and decline LATQ, which could intensify flooding. Soil-water conservation measures are recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of bioenergy.

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Data Availability

Datasets are available upon request.

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Acknowledgements

The author is thankful to SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia Phase 2 project (Asst. Prof. Jerasorn Santisirisomboon), the Royal Irrigation Thailand (RID), the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), the Department of Water Resources, the Land Development Department, and the Thai Meteorological Department for the data provided. The authors appreciate help from Prof. Peter Verburg for his valuable suggestions on CLUE simulation. The authors also appreciate the help from Dr. Adrian R. Plant, Mahasarakham University for language editing. A special thank is to the research assistant, Mr. Tanaporn Sripaisan, for the CLUE model simulation.

Funding

This research was financially supported by the National Research Council of Thailand, NRCT fiscal year 2018 to 2020, and co-funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Thailand–China Future Earth Project (41661144030).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth Science Research Cluster, Mahidol University, Kanchanaburi Campus, 199 Moo 9, Lumsum Sub-District, Saiyok District, 71150, Kanchanaburi, Thailand

    Arika Bridhikitti

  2. Environmental Engineering and Disaster Management Program, School of Interdisciplinary Studies, Mahidol University Kanchanaburi Campus, 199 Moo 9, Lumsum Sub-District, Saiyok District, 71150, Kanchanaburi, Thailand

    Arika Bridhikitti & Arocha Ketuthong

  3. Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahasarakham University, Kham Rieng Sub- District, Kantarawichai District, 44150, Mahasarakham, Thailand

    Thayukorn Prabamroong

  4. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China

    Renzhi Li, Jing Li & Gaohuan Liu

Authors
  1. Arika Bridhikitti
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  2. Arocha Ketuthong
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  3. Thayukorn Prabamroong
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  4. Renzhi Li
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  5. Jing Li
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  6. Gaohuan Liu
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Contributions

A. Bridhikitti: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data Curation, Writing, Supervision, Funding acquisition. A. Ketuthong: Software, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Visualization. T. Prabamroong: Project administration. R. Li: Software, Investigation, Resource. J. Li: Software, Investigation, Resource. G. Liu: Supervision, Funding acquisition.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Arika Bridhikitti.

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Bridhikitti, A., Ketuthong, A., Prabamroong, T. et al. How Do Sustainable Development-Induced Land Use Change and Climate Change Affect Water Balance? A Case Study of the Mun River Basin, NE Thailand. Water Resour Manage 37, 2737–2756 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03298-8

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