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Adaptive Reservoir Management by Reforming the Zone-based Hedging Rules against Multi-year Droughts

Abstract

In this study, the zone-based hedging rule, which is the main operating policy adopted from multipurpose reservoirs in Korea is adjusted to reflect the multi-year droughts caused by climate change. Annual synthetic inflow series with different magnitudes of long memory were generated using the autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model. The generated inflow series were then disaggregated into 10-day series and utilized as input variables to derive the alternative hedging rules. The alternative hedging rules from this study were used in adaptive reservoir management by newly updated information. Finally, the performance of the suggested policy is measured in terms of frequency and magnitude under the historical inflow series. As a result, adaptive reservoir management demonstrated improvements in the following terms of the frequency of critical failures (water deficit ratio greater than 30%): 6.14% of the simulation period in the status quo (SQ) policy, and 2.99% in the adaptive management. However, the overall reliability of the reservoir during the simulation horizon was better when operated with the SQ policy (41.19%) than the results from adaptive management (26.42%). Because this result is in a good agreement with the original objective of the hedging rules, the adaptive policy suggested in this study holds promise and may be utilized in further reservoir management with an increase of potential drought risk from climate change.

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Availability of data and material

The datasets generated during and analyzed during the current study are available on Mendeley Data (https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b54wd2gtdx/1).

Code availability

All codes that support the findings of this study are available on Github (https://github.com/gijoo-kim/watersupply_standard_update).

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Funding

This study received funding from K-water under "Study in the assessment of drought response capability and improvement plan of coordinated dams-weirs operation for river systems" and “Relief of water shortage in western Chungcheongnam-do by regenerating inflow and improving water supply adjustment standards.” The BK21 PLUS research program of the National Research Foundation of Korea also supported this work. The authors also wish to thank the Institute of Engineering Research, and Institute of Construction Environmental Engineering at Seoul National University and for providing research facilities for this work.

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Contributions

Gi Joo Kim, Young-Oh Kim, and Seung Beom Seo contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Gi Joo Kim. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Gi Joo Kim. Young-Oh Kim and Seung Beom Seo commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Gi Joo Kim, Young-Oh Kim, and Seung Beom Seo read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Young-Oh Kim.

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Kim, G.J., Seo, S.B. & Kim, YO. Adaptive Reservoir Management by Reforming the Zone-based Hedging Rules against Multi-year Droughts. Water Resour Manage (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03214-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03214-0

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Multi-year drought
  • Zone-based hedging rule
  • Autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model
  • Adaptive reservoir management