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Development of a Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate

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Abstract

In a changing climate, drought indices as well as drought definitions need to be revisited because some statistical properties, such as the long-term mean, of climate series may change over time. This study aims to develop a Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) for reliable and robust quantification of drought characteristics in a changing climate. The proposed indicator is based on a non-stationary log-logistic probability distribution, assuming the location parameter of the distribution is a multivariable function of time and climate indices, as covariates. The optimal non-stationary model was obtained using a forward selection method in the framework of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) algorithm. The Non-stationary and Stationary forms of SPEI (i.e., NSPEI and SSPEI) were calculated using the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 32 weather stations in Iran for the common period of 1964–2014. The results showed that almost at all the stations studied, the non-stationary log-logistic distributions outperformed the stationary ones. The AICs of the non-stationary models for 97% of the stations were lower than those of the stationary models. The non-stationary models at 90% of the stations were statistically significant at the 5% significance level. While SSPEI identified the long-term and continuous drought and wet events, NSPEI revealed the short-term and frequent drought/wet periods at almost all the stations of interest. Finally, it was revealed that NSPEI, compared to SSPEI, was a more reliable and robust indicator of drought duration and drought termination in vegetation cover during the severest drought period (the 2008 drought). Therefore, it was suggested as a suitable drought index to quantify drought impacts on vegetation cover in Iran.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) for funding this research under Grant Number 96010915. We also acknowledge I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization for providing some data used in this study.

Funding

This study was funded by Iran National Science Foundation (Grant Number 96010915).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

    Javad Bazrafshan, Majid Cheraghalizadeh & Kokab Shahgholian

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  1. Javad Bazrafshan
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  2. Majid Cheraghalizadeh
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  3. Kokab Shahgholian
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Correspondence to Javad Bazrafshan.

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Bazrafshan, J., Cheraghalizadeh, M. & Shahgholian, K. Development of a Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate. Water Resour Manage 36, 3523–3543 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03209-x

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