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Synergistic Effects of Changes in Climate and Vegetation on Basin Runoff

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Abstract

Climate and vegetation are important components of a changing environment that have synergistic effects on surface runoff. To date, few researchers have included the synergistic effects of changes in climate and vegetation in runoff simulation studies. In this study, a water-heat balance model based on the Budyko hypothesis was established, and an empirical formula for estimating model parameters based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was proposed. This Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-climate relationship model allowed the synergistic effects of changes in climate and vegetation on runoff trends to be analyzed. The model was tested in the Fen River Basin, China. The results showed that the annual runoff would be 15.4%–39.5% (between 2020 and 2100) higher under two climate change scenarios than in the baseline period (2006–2015). Climate-driven change in the vegetation cover accounted for 8.0%–19.6% of the total variation in the runoff. The change in the vegetation cover inhibited the increase in runoff. To improve the accuracy of models and avoid overestimates, synergistic changes in vegetation and climate should be included in model simulations.

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Availability of Data and Materials

The data that supports the findings of this study is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research for their data support. We also thank Liwen Bianji, Edanz Editing China (www.liwenbianji.cn/ac), for editing the English text of a draft of this manuscript.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, grant number 52061135104, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, grant number 2019MS030.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

    Cheng Zhang, Chuansen Wu, Zedong Peng, Shengyang Kuai & Shanghong Zhang

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  1. Cheng Zhang
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Contributions

Conceptualization by Cheng Zhang and Shanghong Zhang. Methodology by Cheng Zhang and Shanghong Zhang. Software by Chuansen Wu. Validation by Zedong Peng and Shengyang Kuai. Resources by Shanghong Zhang. Writing (preparing the original draft) by Chuansen Wu. Writing (review and editing) by Shanghong Zhang.

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Correspondence to Shanghong Zhang.

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Zhang, C., Wu, C., Peng, Z. et al. Synergistic Effects of Changes in Climate and Vegetation on Basin Runoff. Water Resour Manage 36, 3265–3281 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03199-w

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