Abstract
Investigation of seasonal inconsistency between water consumption and rainfall variation is important for more efficient use of floodwater resources. Adjustment of the flood limited water level (FLWL) is an effective way to improve the floodwater use efficiency. Flood season segmentation provides the basis for determining the FLWL and tapping the potential use of floodwater resources. Compromise between the benefit of floodwater use and flood control is crucial to FLWL decision. We use the circular distribution method for flood season segmentation and the relative frequency method for verification. We select the performances of water supply and hydropower generation as the benefit index and the extreme risk rate as the risk index. On the basis of the game theory, we establish a multi-objective cooperative decision-making model and obtain a Nash negotiation solution of staged FLWL. An optimal scheme is determined according to the fuzzy pattern recognition theory. When the risk and benefit are equally valued, the resulting FLWLs of the optimal scheme are 129.0 m, and 128.5 m for a selected reservoir in the pre-flood season and the post-flood season, respectively. By adjusting the preference values of the risk and benefit indexes, we determine the optimal FLWL scheme under different preferences to risk and benefit for each stage.
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Acknowledgements
This study is financially supported by The National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC0407902).
Funding
This work was supported by The National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant numbers [2018YFC0407902]) and The Major Water Conservancy Science and Technology Projects of Hunan Province (Grant numbers [XSKJ2021000-04]).
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Xiaoying Li: data analysis, original draft preparation and editing; Yan Zhang: investigation, methodology, writing review and editing; Zechun Tong: data analysis, review; Guo-Yue Niu: review, editing. The authors give their full consent for the publication of this manuscript.
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Li, X., Zhang, Y., Tong, Z. et al. Reservoir Flood Season Segmentation and Risk–benefit Cooperative Decision of Staged Flood Limited Water Level. Water Resour Manage 36, 3463–3479 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03184-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03184-3