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An Analysis of Non-stationary Drought Conditions in Parana State Based on Climate Change Scenarios

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Abstract

Climate change affects the hydrological cycle and has a significant influence on water resources, which can lead to environmental and socioeconomic damage caused by droughts. This phenomenon has become more acute in recent years. Among the indices used to assess the extent of droughts, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is being adopted throughout the world. The RDI requires a stationarity assumption in its statistical calculations; however, most of the hydro-meteorological time series show non-stationarity. Hence, this paper seeks to assess meteorological droughts by means of RDI by adopting both stationary and non-stationary approaches. Non-stationarity was assessed by applying the Mann–Kendall test for trend detection and the Pettitt test for change point detection. The Thornthwaite method was employed to estimate the potential evapotranspiration required for RDI application. The bias in the future series were corrected employing the Linear Scaling (LS) technique for precipitation series and the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) technique for the temperature series. Historical and future simulated monthly temperature and precipitation data were obtained from 34 meteorological stations located within Parana State, Brazil. The results showed that the maximum drought magnitude, duration, and intensity have increased during the 21st Century. When compared with historical patterns up to 2100, the results showed that drought magnitude is expected to increase by 105%, while drought duration is expected to increase by 59% in meteorological drought projections.

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Availability of Data

Both the precipitation and temperature data used in this research are restricted to the purposes of this study and to the doctoral dissertation. Restricted historical data on precipitation and temperature were provided by the Parana Agronomic Institute (IAPAR).

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  • 07 July 2022

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the following government agencies in Brazil: National Institute of Meteorology, Parana Agronomic Institute, National Water and Sanitation Agency and National Institute for Spatial Research, for providing the data needed to carry out the PhD thesis and the research for this work. The first author is grateful to the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for funding this PhD research study.

Funding

The first author was awarded a grant to undertake his PhD research by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES).

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  1. Dept. of Hydraulics and Sanitation, Graduate Program on Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Federal Univ. of Paraná, Campus Politecnico, Block 5, Curitiba, PR, 81531-990, Brazil

    Robinson Ploszai, Miriam Rita Moro Mine & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel

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  1. Robinson Ploszai
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Correspondence to Robinson Ploszai.

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Ploszai, R., Mine, M.R.M. & Detzel, D.H.M. An Analysis of Non-stationary Drought Conditions in Parana State Based on Climate Change Scenarios. Water Resour Manage 36, 3401–3415 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03143-y

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