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Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition

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Abstract

Concerning the various effects of climate change on intensifying extreme weather phenomena all around the world, studying its possible consequences in the following years has attracted the attention of researchers. As the drought characteristics identified by drought indices are highly significant in investigating the possible future drought, the Copula function is employed in many studies. In this study, the two- and three-variable Copula functions were employed for calculating the return period of drought events for the historical, the near future, and the far future periods. In this paper, bivariate and trivariate of Copula functions were applied to evaluate the return periods of the drought in the historical period and the two near and near future periods. Moreover, the results of considering bivariate and trivariate of Copula functions were compared separately with the results of the calculated return periods for each of the drought characteristics; accordingly, the role of each drought characteristics was considered. The most severe historical drought was selected as the benchmark, and the drought-zoning map for the GCM models was drawn. The results showed that severe droughts could be experienced, especially in the upper area of the basin where the primary water resource is located. In addition, the nature of the drought duration plays a decisive role in calculating the return periods of drought events.

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Data Availability

All data generated or analyzed during this study are available from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

The corresponding author also expresses her gratitude to Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, the United States for providing the authors with the facilities and opportunity to complete this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water Sciences Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

    Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini, Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Fereydoun Radmanesh

  2. Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran

    Jahangir Abedi Koupai

  3. Department of Biological & Environmental Sciences, University of Hertfordshire, College Lane, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL10 9AB, UK

    Shahrokh Soltaninia

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  1. Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini
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Contributions

Material preparation, data collection, study conception, design, and analysis were performed by Dr. EMBN, and then it was involved in planning and supervised by Dr. AMA-A, Dr. FR and Dr. JAK. The first draft of the manuscript was written by EMBN commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Dr. SS verified the analytical methods and performed some calculations. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini.

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Motevali Bashi Naeini, E., Akhoond-Ali, A.M., Radmanesh, F. et al. Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition. Water Resour Manage 35, 4855–4875 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02965-6

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