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Assessing Adaptability of Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Approach to Conjunctive use of Groundwater and Surface water for Sustainable Management Plans under Climate Change

Abstract

Groundwater overdraft in many regions throughout the world has been threatening the sustainability of this valuable resource. It has been argued that climate change may contribute to the severity of the issue; hence “impact assessment” is being replaced by “adaptation,” which explores more adapting scenarios and approaches. This study explores the adaptability of the proposed cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources in increasing groundwater sustainability while increasing the sustainability of water allocation to the agricultural sector under possible climate change scenarios. To simulate climate change in the study area, precipitation and temperature variables are extracted from the results of three global atmospheric circulation models (Ensemble, CMCC-CMS, MRI-CGCM3) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the period of 2021–2031. Spatial downscaling is performed using the M5 decision tree algorithm. The Wavelet-M5 hybrid model is used to predict runoff values as a rainfall-runoff model. Also, the Kharrufa method is applied to calculate evaporation in the future seasons. The system's adaptability to climate change is examined using the multi-objective cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of surface and groundwater models. The study reveals that cyclic operation strategy improves the conjunctive use system adaptability compared to the optimal operation strategy that employs the non-cyclic approach. In this study's case study, the improvement in groundwater sustainability index exceeds 27 percent over the non-cyclic conjunctive use strategy.

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Acknowledgements

Authors appreciate Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) for their partial support through grant number 96010175.

Funding

This work was supported by Iran National Science Foundation (INSF), grant number:96010175.

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Contributions

Abbas Afshar: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing—original draft, Supervision, Funding acquisition. Mina Khosravi: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing—original draft, Software. Amir molajou: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Abbas Afshar.

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Afshar, A., Khosravi, M. & Molajou, A. Assessing Adaptability of Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Approach to Conjunctive use of Groundwater and Surface water for Sustainable Management Plans under Climate Change. Water Resour Manage 35, 3463–3479 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02887-3

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Keywords

  • Climate Change
  • Adaptation
  • Sustainability Index
  • Groundwater Sustainability
  • Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Conjunctive Use