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Middle- and Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis Using Lasso-DBN-Bootstrap Model

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Abstract

Middle-term and long-term streamflow forecasting is of great significance for water resources planning and management, cascade reservoirs optimal operation, agriculture and hydro-power generation. In this work, a framework was proposed which integrates least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), DBN and bootstrap to improve the performance and the stability of streamflow forecasting with the lead-time of one month. Lasso helps to screen the appropriate predictors for the DBN model, and the DBN model simulates the complex relationship between the selection predictors and streamflow, and then bootstrap with the DBN model contributes to evaluate the uncertainty. The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) was taken as a case study. The results indicated that lasso-DBN-bootstrap model produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the other three models and provides reliable information on the forecasting uncertainty, which will be valuable for water resources management and planning.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been sponsored in part by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0403600, 2017YFC0403602), National Natural Science Foundation of China (51459003), Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province (No. 2019-ZJ-941Q), Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering (sklhse-2021-Iow09).

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Available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Haibo Chu & Jiahua Wei

  2. College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China

    Haibo Chu

  3. State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, School of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, Qinghai University, Xining, 810016, China

    Jiahua Wei

  4. Beijing Institute of Geology, Beijing, 100195, China

    Yuan Jiang

Authors
  1. Haibo Chu
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  2. Jiahua Wei
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  3. Yuan Jiang
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Contributions

Haibo Chu: methodology, data curation, programing tune, writing – original draft; Jiahua Wei: writing – review and editing, methodology; Yuan Jiang: validation, data curation.

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Correspondence to Jiahua Wei.

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Chu, H., Wei, J. & Jiang, Y. Middle- and Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis Using Lasso-DBN-Bootstrap Model. Water Resour Manage 35, 2617–2632 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02854-y

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