Developing a Model for Decision-Makers in Dynamic Modeling of Urban Water System Management

A Correction to this article was published on 16 May 2020

This article has been updated

Abstract

Water managers may modify many components of urban water systems to minimize water shortage. Since each modification activity has its own positive and negative effects, it is necessary to define an appropriate procedure to predict the consequences of each action. As the parameters of urban water supply and demand system have internal relationships in the time domain, a dynamic model is needed to forecast the result of changes and select the best modification activity. Here the Vensim® is applied as a modeling tool to choose the most effective water management activities in Tehran province. It has been found that the annual increase rate of water tariff by 16.4% and assigning 4.5% of revenue on reducing non-revenue water may be the most effective demand management activity to reduce water shortage in Tehran province. It has also been revealed that, even by implementing the most effective demand management activities in Tehran, the amount of required water in the next 10 years is more than the sustainable capacity of its resources and activities like seawater desalination are inevitable to prevent unsustainable use of water sources.

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Change history

  • 16 May 2020

    The original version of this article unfortunately contains mistakes introduced during the publishing process.

Notes

  1. 1.

    Device or activity that is produced/ done in the country using its own resources

  2. 2.

    Device/service that is not produced/done using the country’s own resources, but imported from the other countries

  3. 3.

    water that is produced, but because of physical(leaks and…) or apparent losses(metering problems, theft and etc.) the consumers did not pay for

  4. 4.

    As Gross Domestic Product(GDP) in Iran 2017 is 439.5 billion dollars (The world Bank 2018), 0.29% of a total GDP of Iran have to pay for desalination in the first year of project

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Correspondence to Keivan Karimlou.

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The original version of this article was revised due to incorrect figures 1-3.

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Karimlou, K., Hassani, N., Rashidi Mehrabadi, A. et al. Developing a Model for Decision-Makers in Dynamic Modeling of Urban Water System Management. Water Resour Manage 34, 481–499 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02428-z

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Keywords

  • Water
  • System dynamics
  • Price elasticity of demand
  • Tariff
  • Conservation devices
  • Non-revenue water