Abstract
In this research, a reliability-based method for optimum design of the capacity and operation policy for a water resource system including a reservoir and the downstream irrigation network is presented in which important stochastic hydrological, agronomic and economic factors are considered. The developed model is applied for the Marboreh reservoir and the irrigation network in west of Iran in the form of a stochastic mathematical program with the objective function of maximizing the net benefit gained from the crops’ production limited to the hydrologic constraints associated with the reservoir and soil moisture of the plants’ root zone and the agronomic constraints related to the crops. The decision variables are design parameters of the reservoir capacity, irrigation network area and the crops pattern and the operation parameters which include reservoir operation policy, water allocation to the crops and the irrigation strategy. The uncertain factors considered are the inflow to the reservoir, the water demands, the crops yield, the price of crops and the production costs. Genetic algorithm is used as the optimization routine and a Monte-Carlo routine takes into account the effect of the stochastic outcomes of the uncertain factors. Results state the optimal capacity of 161.8 MCM for the reservoir, area of 31,304 ha for the irrigation network and a volumetric reliability of 72.1% in the neutral to risk condition. In the risky state, the network area is increased and the reservoir capacity and the reliability index are decreased while in the risk-averse state the results are vice versa.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alizadeh H, Mousavi SJ (2013a) Stochastic order-based optimal design of a surface reservoir–irrigation district system. J Hydroinf 15(2):591–606
Alizadeh H, Mousavi SJ (2013b) Coupled stochastic soil moisture simulation-optimization model of deficit irrigation. Water Resour Res 49(7):4100–4113
Alizadeh H, Mousavi SJ, Ponnambalam K (2018) Copula-based chance-constrained hydro-economic optimization model for optimal Design of Reservoir-Irrigation District Systems under Multiple Interdependent Sources of uncertainty. Water Resour Res
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration, guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage paper 56, FAO, 300(9)
Banihabib ME, Shabestari MH (2017) Decision models for the ranking of agricultural water demand management strategies in an arid region. Irrig Drain 66(5):773–783
Pagani V, Stella T, Guarneri T, Finotto G, van den Berg M, Marin FR, Confalonieri R (2017) Forecasting sugarcane yields using agro-climatic indicators and Canegro model: a case study in the main production region in Brazil. Agric Syst 154:45–52
Brümmer B, Korn O, Schlüßler K, Jamali Jaghdani T (2016) Volatility in oilseeds and vegetable oils markets: drivers and spillovers. J Agric Econ 67(3):685–705
Cai X, McKinney DC, Lasdon LS (2003) Integrated hydrologic-agronomic-economic model for river basin management. Water Resour Plan Manag 129(1):4–17
Cai X, McKinney DC (1999) A modeling framework for sustainable water resources management, doctoral dissertation, Center for Research in water resources, University of Texas at Austin
Dudley NJ, Howell DT, Musgrave WF (1971) Optimal intraseasonal irrigation water allocation. Water Resour Res 7(4):770–788
FAO (1979) Yield response to water, irrigation and drainage paper 33, Rome, Italy
Fletcher SG, Ponnambalam K (1998) Constrained state formulation for the stochastic control of multireservoir systems. Water Resour Res 34(2):257–270
Guideline for studies on the operation of reservoir dams (2012), issue No.272, Office of standards of Iran's Ministry of Energy (In Persian)
Haile MG, Kalkuhl M, von Braun J (2015) Worldwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility: a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans. Am J Agric Econ 98(1):172–190
Ines AV, Honda K, Gupta AD, Droogers P, Clemente RS (2006) Combining remote sensing-simulation modeling and genetic algorithm optimization to explore water management options in irrigated agriculture. Agric Water Manag 83(3):221–232
Kantanantha N (2007) Crop decision planning under yield and price uncertainties (Doctoral dissertation, Georgia Institute of Technology)
Laio F, Porporato A, Ridolfi L, Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2001) Plants in water-controlled ecosystems: active role in hydrologic processes and response to water stress: II. Probabilistic soil moisture dynamics. Adv Water Resour 24(7):707–723
Li M, Guo P (2014) A multi-objective optimal allocation model for irrigation water resources under multiple uncertainties. Appl Math Model 38(19–20):4897–4911
Li M, Fu Q, Singh VP, Liu D (2018) An interval multi-objective programming model for irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. Agric Water Manag 196:24–36
Liu P, Li L, Chen G, Rheinheimer DE (2014) Parameter uncertainty analysis of reservoir operating rules based on implicit stochastic optimization. J Hydrol 514:102–113
Mannocchi F, Todisco F (2006) Optimal reservoir operations for irrigation using a three spatial scales approach. J Irrig Drain Eng 132(2):130–142
Mousavi SJ, Alizadeh H, Ponnambalam K (2014) Storage-yield analysis of surface water reservoirs: the role of reliability constraints and operating policies. Stoch Env Res Risk A 28(8):2051–2061
Pars Ray Ab Consulting Engineers Company (In Persian) (2014) Report of studies of development and improvement of Marboreh agricultural irrigation network
Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Porporato A, Ridolfi L, Isham V, Coxi DR (1999) Probabilistic modeling of water balance at a point: the role of climate, soil and vegetation, In Proc R Soc Lond A: Mathematical, Phys Eng Sci (Vol. 455, No. 1990, pp. 3789–3805), The Royal Society
Sepaskhah AR, Azizian A, Tavakoli AR (2006) Optimal applied water and nitrogen for winter wheat under variable seasonal rainfall and planning scenarios for consequent crops in a semi-arid region. Agric Water Manag 84(1):113–122
Shaked M, Shanthikumar J G (2007) Stochastic orders, series: Springer Series in Statistics
Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Fereres E, Raes D (2012) Crop yield response to water. FAO, Rome, p 66
Singh A (2016) Optimal allocation of resources for increasing farm revenue under hydrological uncertainty. Water Resour Manag 30(7):2569–2580
Vedula S, Mujumdar PP (1992) Optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops. Water Resour Res 28(1):1–9
Vico G, Porporato A (2011) From rainfed agriculture to stress-avoidance irrigation: I. a generalized irrigation scheme with stochastic soil moisture. Adv Water Resour 34(2):263–271
Zhang JL, Ponnambalam K (2005) Stochastic control for risk under deregulated electricity market—a case study using a new formulation. Can J Civ Eng 32(4):719–725
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest
Authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sheibani, H., Alizadeh, H. & Shourian, M. Optimum Design and Operation of a Reservoir and Irrigation Network Considering Uncertainty of Hydrologic, Agronomic and Economic Factors. Water Resour Manage 33, 863–879 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2148-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2148-5