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Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China

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Abstract

Effective drought prediction methods are essential for the mitigation of adverse effects of severe drought events. This study utilizes the Reconnaissance Drought Index, Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index to assess the occurrence of future drought events in the study area of the Heilongjiang province of China over a period of 2016–2099. The drought indices were computed from the meteorological data (temperature, precipitation) generated by the global climate model (HadCM3A2). Moreover, Mann-Kendall trend test was applied for the assessment of future climatic trends and detecting probable differences in the behaviour of various drought indices. Drought forecasting periods has been divided into three categories: the early phase (1916–2030), middle phase (2031–2060) and late phase (2061–2099). The occurrence of future droughts is also ranked according to their intensity (mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought). Based on the drought results, more number of drought events are expected to occur during 12-month drought analysis are, RDI during 2084–2098 (DD = 14, DS = −1.38), SPEI during 2084–2098 (DD = 14, DS = −1.33) and SPI during 2084–2095 (DD = 12, DS = −1.19). The 1st and 2nd months of the years studied predicted a warming trend, while the 7th, 8th, and 9th months predicted a wetter trend. Finally, it was observed that RDI is more sensitive to drought and indicated a high percentage of years under severe and extreme drought conditions during the drought frequency analysis. Conclusively, this study provides a strategies for water resources management and monitoring of droughts, in which drought indices like RDI can play a central role.

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Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51579044, No.41071053, No.51479032), Specialized Research Fund for Innovative Talents of Harbin (Excellent Academic Leader) (No.2013RFXXJ001), Science and Technology Program of Water Conservancy of Heilongjiang Province (No.201319, No.201501, No.201503).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China

    Muhammad Imran Khan, Dong Liu, Qiang Fu, Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Tianxiao Li, Song Cui & Chen Cheng

  2. Key Laboratory of Effective Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources of Ministry of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China

    Muhammad Imran Khan, Dong Liu, Qiang Fu, Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Tianxiao Li, Song Cui & Chen Cheng

  3. Heilongjiang Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Grain production Capacity Improvement, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China

    Muhammad Imran Khan, Dong Liu, Qiang Fu, Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Tianxiao Li, Song Cui & Chen Cheng

  4. Institute of Agriculture Soil and Water Engineering, Collage of Water Resources & Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China

    Qaisar Saddique

  5. Department of Irrigation & Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Uzair Qamar

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  1. Muhammad Imran Khan
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Correspondence to Dong Liu or Qiang Fu.

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Khan, M.I., Liu, D., Fu, Q. et al. Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China. Water Resour Manage 31, 3921–3937 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1716-4

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