Advertisement

Water Resources Management

, Volume 31, Issue 9, pp 2885–2898 | Cite as

Modelling Resilience of a Water Supply System under Climate Change and Population Growth Impacts

  • Pradeep Amarasinghe
  • An LiuEmail author
  • Prasanna Egodawatta
  • Paul Barnes
  • James McGree
  • Ashantha Goonetilleke
Article
  • 674 Downloads

Abstract

Climate change impacts and increased demand due to population growth are among the most common disruptions or pressures that can undermine the service potential of a water supply system. Consequently, the successful management of a water supply system depends on an in-depth understanding of the resilience of the system to such pressures. This study developed a robust modelling approach to assess the resilience of a water supply system enabling the identification of critical trigger points at which the system would fail. The trigger points identified included maximum rainfall reduction percentage to maintain system functionality under increased demand and minimum initial storage beyond which the probability of failure increases rapidly. Additionally, a logistic regression model was developed for taking into consideration the cumulative effects of rainfall, demand and storage variations in order to predict the probability of failure of a water supply system. The study outcomes are expected to provide improved guidance to infrastructure system operators for enhancing the efficiency and reliability of water supply systems under threats posed by climate change and population growth impacts.

Keywords

Water supply system Resilience Climate change Population growth 

Supplementary material

11269_2017_1646_MOESM1_ESM.docx (509 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 508 kb)

References

  1. Abbs D, McInnes K, Rafter T (2007) The impact of climate change on extreme rainfall and coastal sea levels over south-east Queensland, part 2: a high-resolution modelling study of the effect of climate change on the intensity of extreme rainfall events. Gold Coast, Australia, Gold Coast City CouncilGoogle Scholar
  2. Amarasinghe P (2014) Resilience of water supple systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth. PhD Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
  3. Amarasinghe P, Liu A, Egodawatta P, Barnes P, McGree J, Goonetilleke A (2016) Quantitative assessment of resilience of a water supply system under rainfall reduction due to climate change. J Hydrol 540:1043–1052CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dahal V, Shakya NM, Bhattarai R (2016) Estimating the impact of climate change on water availability in Bagmati Basin, Nepal. Environ Process 3(1):1–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Debon A, Carrion A, Cabrera E, Solano H (2010) Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 95:43–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Feng YY, Chen SQ, Zhang LX (2013) System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: a case study of Beijing, China. Ecol Model 252:44–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Hosseini S, Barker K, Ramirez-Marquez JE (2016) A review of definitions and measures of system resilience. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 145:47–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Maestro T, Nicolosi V, Cancelliere A, Bielza M (2014) Impacts of climate change, hydrological drought mitigation measures and irrigation demand on water supply system performance. European Water 45(46):25–33Google Scholar
  9. McCullagh P, Nelder JA (1989) Generalized linear models, 2nd edn. Chapman &Hall/CRC, monographs on statistics & applied probabilityGoogle Scholar
  10. Mereu S, Susnik J, Trabucco A, Daccache A, Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L, Renoldi S, Virdis A, Savic D, Assimacopoulos D (2016) Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: a case study from Sardinia. Sci Total Environ 543(part B):1028–1038CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Mugume SN, Gomez DE, Fu G, Farmani R, Butler D (2015) A global analysis approach for investigating structural resilience in urban drainage systems. Water Res 81:15–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Ning X, Liu Y, Chen J, Dong X, Li W, Li WF, Liang B (2013) Sustainability of urban drainage management: a perspective on infrastructure resilience and thresholds. Front Env Sci Eng 7:658–668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. O'Hara JK, Georgakakos KP (2008) Quantifying the urban water supply impacts of climate change. Water Resour Manag 22(10):1477–1497CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Proag V (2016) Building resilience in the water supply network of Mauritius. Water Util J 12:39–48Google Scholar
  15. Sahin O, Stewart RA, Helfer F (2015) Bridging the water supply-demand gap in Australia: coupling water demand efficiency with rain-independent desalination supply. Water Resour Manag 29(2):253–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Sahin O, Siems RS, Stewart RA, Porter MG (2016) Paradigm shift to enhanced water supply planning through augmented grids, scarcity pricing and adaptive factory water: a system dynamics approach. Environ Model Softw 75:348–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Schoen M, Hawkins T, Xue X, Ma C, Garland J, Ashbolt NJ (2015) Technologic resilience assessment of coastal community water and wastewater service options. Sustain Water Qual Ecol 6:75–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Short MD, Peirson WL, Peters GM, Cox RJ (2012) Managing adaptation of urban water systems in a changing climate. Water Resour Manag 26(7):1953–1981CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Spiller D, Owens C, Horton G, Banks S (2011) Resilience of WEQ water Grid. J Austrian Water Assoc 38(7):88–92Google Scholar
  20. Theodossiou N (2016) Assessing the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of groundwater aquifers, application in Moudania aquifer in N. Greece Environ Process 3(4):1045–1061CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. van der Pol TD, van Ierland EC, Gabbert S, Weikard HP, Hendrix EMT (2015) Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change. J Environ Manag 154:40–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Watts G, Christierson B, Hannaford J, Lonsdale K (2016) Testing the resilience of water supply systems to long droughts. J Hydrol 414-415:255–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Zhu J, Wang X, Zhang L, Cheng H, Yang Z (2015) System dynamics modeling of the influence of the TN/TP concentrations in socioeconomic water on NDVI in shallow lakes. Ecol Eng 76:27–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pradeep Amarasinghe
    • 1
  • An Liu
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Prasanna Egodawatta
    • 1
  • Paul Barnes
    • 3
  • James McGree
    • 1
  • Ashantha Goonetilleke
    • 1
  1. 1.Science and Engineering FacultyQueensland University of Technology (QUT)BrisbaneAustralia
  2. 2.College of Chemistry and Environmental EngineeringShenzhen UniversityShenzhenPeople’s Republic of China
  3. 3.Health FacultyQueensland University of Technology (QUT)BrisbaneAustralia

Personalised recommendations