Water Resources Management

, Volume 31, Issue 4, pp 1209–1225 | Cite as

Assessment of Trend in Global Drought Propensity in the Twenty-First Century Using Drought Management Index



This study attempts to perform a global analysis of the trend in drought propensity in the twenty-first century using bias corrected soil moisture simulations from two General Circulation Model (GCMs) outputs based on the Representative Concentration Pathway-8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Drought propensity is characterized in terms of the probabilistic index – Drought Management Index (DMI), which is suitable for the assessment of slowly varying changes in soil moisture drought on a multi-year time scale. A global gridded analysis is performed to assess the future trend in drought propensity at each location on the globe over the twenty-first century. Regional analysis is also carried out to investigate the trends, if any, at the continental scale. A significant increasing trend in drought propensity is observed in large parts of Africa, South America and Asia, whereas a significant decreasing trend is observed in the northern parts of Europe and North America. This study helps to assess the spatio-temporal propagation of global drought propensity in future and aids in identifying the regions that would be relatively more/less prone to droughts towards the end of the century.


Global drought propensity Twenty-first century drought trend Soil moisture Drought management index Reliablity-Resilence-vulnerability (RRV) General circulation model (GCM) 



This work was partially supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) (Ref No. MoES/PAMC/H&C/30/2013-PC-II) through sponsored projects.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines)DhanbadIndia
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of TechnologyKharagpurIndia
  3. 3.Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU)Garmisch-PartenkirchenGermany

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