Assessment of Trend in Global Drought Propensity in the Twenty-First Century Using Drought Management Index
This study attempts to perform a global analysis of the trend in drought propensity in the twenty-first century using bias corrected soil moisture simulations from two General Circulation Model (GCMs) outputs based on the Representative Concentration Pathway-8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Drought propensity is characterized in terms of the probabilistic index – Drought Management Index (DMI), which is suitable for the assessment of slowly varying changes in soil moisture drought on a multi-year time scale. A global gridded analysis is performed to assess the future trend in drought propensity at each location on the globe over the twenty-first century. Regional analysis is also carried out to investigate the trends, if any, at the continental scale. A significant increasing trend in drought propensity is observed in large parts of Africa, South America and Asia, whereas a significant decreasing trend is observed in the northern parts of Europe and North America. This study helps to assess the spatio-temporal propagation of global drought propensity in future and aids in identifying the regions that would be relatively more/less prone to droughts towards the end of the century.
KeywordsGlobal drought propensity Twenty-first century drought trend Soil moisture Drought management index Reliablity-Resilence-vulnerability (RRV) General circulation model (GCM)
This work was partially supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) (Ref No. MoES/PAMC/H&C/30/2013-PC-II) through sponsored projects.
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