Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessing the Accuracy of GIS-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process for Watershed Prioritization; Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Watershed prioritization based on the natural and anthropogenic factors involves by locating the critical areas of flood hazard, which cause socio-economic and environmental consequences to take up mitigation activities on priority basis. The pair-wise comparisons of natural and anthropogenic factors is a bit problematic, because these two mentioned factors are different from typology view point. In order to assess flood hazard potential by using (1) only natural factors (FHPNF), (2) only anthropogenic factors (FHPAF), and (3) ensemble the obtained sub-watersheds priorities from natural and anthropogenic factors , the coupling of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were applied the Gorganrood river basin of Iran. Each effective factor was assigned to appropriate weight based on Saaty’s 9 point scale and the obtained weights were normalized through the Eigenvector method. By using the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC), two flood hazard potential indexes were defined separately for anthropogenic and natural factors. Finally, both indices values were combined to determine sub-watersheds priority. For the validation of the predictions, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and historical data of flash flood events were used. According to the results of ROC curves, the FHPNF and FHPAF maps showed a reasonable good performance in watershed prioritization with area under ROC curve (AUC) values of 76.1 and 79.5 %, respectively. In addition, these results imply that one and two sub-watersheds fall under very high and high priority, respectively. The results of this study act as guidelines for managers and planners to determine sub-watersheds priority and rational management of watersheds based on both natural and anthropogenic components.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbott MB, Bathurst JC, Cunge JA, O’Connell PE, Rasmussen J (1986) An introduction to the European hydrologic system-systeme hydrologique European, SHE, 1: history and philosophy of a physically based, distributed modeling system. J Hydrol 87:45–59

  • Abdolhay A, Saghafian B, Soom MAM, Ghazali AHB (2012) Identification of homogenous regions in Gorganrood basin (Iran) for the purpose of regionalization. Nat Hazards 61:1427–1442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Agarwal CS (1998) Study of drainage pattern through aerial data in Naugarh area of Varanasi district, U.P. J Indian Soc Remote Sensing 26(4):169–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andriani GF, Walsh N (2009) An example of the effects of anthropogenic changes on natural environment in the Apulian karst (southern Italy). Environ Geol 58:313–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ardalan A, Naieni KH, Kabir MJ, Zanganeh AM, Keshtkar A, Honarvar MR, Khodaie H (2009) Evaluation of Golestan Province’s early warning system for flash floods, Iran, 2006–7. Int J Biometeorol 53:247–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part 1: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34(1):73–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bahremand A, De Smedt F, Corluy J, Liu YB, Poorova J, Velcicka L, Kunikova E (2007) WetSpa model application for assessing reforestation impacts on floods in Margecany-Hornad watershed. Water Resour Manage 21:1373–1391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baldassarre GD, Castellarin A, Montanari A, Brath A (2009) Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study. Nat Hazards 50:479–496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bicknell BR, Imhoff JL, Kittle JL, Donigian AA, Johanson RC (1993) Hydrologic simulation program-Fortran: user’s manual for release 10. U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Athens

    Google Scholar 

  • Biswas S, Sudhakar S, Desai VR (1999) Prioritisation of subwatersheds based on morphometric analysis of drainage basin: a remote sensing and GIS approach. J Indian Soc Remote Sensing 27(3):155–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Booij MJ (2005) Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions. J Hydrol 303:176–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calizaya A, Meixner O, Bengtsson L, Berndtsson R (2010) Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for integrated water resources management (IWRM) in the lake Poopo Basin, Bolivia. Water Resour Manag 24(10):2267–2289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chandio IA, Matori ANB, Yusof KBW, Talpur MAH, Balogun AL, Lawal DU (2012) GIS-based analytic hierarchy process as a multicriteria decision analysis instrument: a review. Arab J Geosci. doi:10.1007/s12517-012-0568-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheng S, Wang R (2004) Analyzing hazard potential of typhoon damage by applying grey analytic hierarchy process. Nat Hazards 33:77–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdary VM, Chakraborthy D, Jeyaram A, Krishna Murthy YVN, Sharma JR, Dadhwal VK (2013) Multi-criteria decision making approach for watershed prioritization using analytic hierarchy process technique and GIS. Water Resour Manage 27:3555–3571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conforti M, Aucelli PPC, Robustelli G, Scarciglia F (2011) Geomorphology and GIS analysis for mapping gully erosion susceptibility in the Turbolo stream catchment (Northern Calabria, Italy). Nat Hazards 56:881–898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai FC, Lee CF, Li J, Xu ZW (2001) Assessment of landslide susceptibility on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Environ Geol 40:381–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Smedt F, Liu YB, Gebremeskel S (2000) Hydrological modeling on a catchment scale using GIS and remote sensed land use information. International Conference of Risk Analysis 2000, 11–13 October, Bologna, Italy

  • Fan M, Shibata H (2014) Spatial and temporal analysis of hydrological provision ecosystem services for watershed conservation planning of water resources. Water Resour Manage 28:3619–3636

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fernández DS, Lutz MA (2010) Urban flood hazard zoning in Tucumán Province, Argentina, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis. Eng Geol 111:90–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray DM (1961) Interrelationships of watershed characteristics. J Geophys Res 66(4):1215–1223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haq M, Akhtar M, Muhammad S, Paras S, Rahmatullah J (2012) Techniques of remote sensing and GIS for flood monitoring and damage assessment: a case study of Sindh province, Pakistan. Egypt J Rem Sens Space Sci 15:135–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain MK, Das D (2010) Estimation of sediment yield and areas of soil erosion and deposition for Watershed Prioritization using GIS and remote sensing. Water Resour Manag 24(10):2091–2112

  • JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) (2006) The study on flood and debris flow in the Caspian Coastal area focusing on the flood-hit region in Golestan Province in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

  • Jaafari A, Najafi A, Pourghasemi HR, Rezaeian J, Sattarian A (2014) GIS-based frequency ratio and index of entropy models for landslide susceptibility assessment in the Caspian forest, northern Iran. Int J Environ Sci Technol. doi:10.1007/s13762-013-0464-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaiswal RK, Thomas T, Galkate RV, Ghosh NC, Singh S (2014) Watershed prioritization using Saaty’s AHP based decision support for soil conservation measures. Water Resour Manage 28:475–494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang B, Lee J, Chung E, Kim D, Kim YD (2013) A sensitivity analysis approach of multi-attribute decision making technique to rank flood mitigation projects. KSCE J Civ Eng 17(6):1529–1539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kia MB, Pirasteh S, Pradhan B, Mahmud AR, Sulaiman WNA, Moradi A (2012) An artificial neural network model for flood simulation using GIS: Johor River Basin, Malaysia. Environ Earth Sci 67:251–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lar Consultant Company 2006. Flood hazard analyze of Golestan Province: engineering report of Narmab, Khormalu and Cholichai. Report No. 10-3-A (in Persian).

  • Lázaro JM, Navarro JÁS, Gil AG, Romero VE (2013) Sensitivity analysis of main variables present in flash flood processes. Application in two Spanish catchments: Arás and Aguilón. Environ Earth Sci. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2668-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Li GF, Xiang X, Tong Y, Wang H (2013) Impact assessment of urbanization on flood risk in the Yangtze River Delta. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 27:1683–1693

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malczewski J (2006) GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis: a survey of the literature. Int J Geographic Inform Sci 20(7):703–726

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer V, Scheuer S, Haase D (2009) A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde river, Germany. Nat Hazards 48:17–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minea G (2013) Assessment of the flash flood potential of Bâsca River Catchment (Romania) based on physiographic factors. Cent Eur J Geosci 5(3):344–353

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell G, McDonald AT (1995) Catchment characterization as a tool for upland water quality management. J Environ Manag 44(1):83–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naghibi SA, Pourghasemi HR (2015) A comparative assessment between three machine learning models and their performance comparison by bivariate and multivariate statistical methods in groundwater potential mapping. Water Resour Manage. doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1114-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Omidvar B, Khodaei H (2008) Using value engineering to optimize flood forecasting and flood warning systems: Golestan and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as case studies. Nat Hazards 47:281–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papaioannou G, Vasiliades L, Loukas A (2014) Multi-criteria analysis framework for potential flood prone areas mapping. Water Resour Manage. doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0817-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Paquette J, Lowry J (2012) Flood hazard modelling and risk assessment in the Nadi River Basin, Fiji, using GIS and MCDA. South Pacific J Nat Applied Sci 30:33–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patel DP, Srivastava PK (2013) Flood hazards mitigation analysis using remote sensing and GIS: correspondence with town planning scheme. Water Resour Manage 27:2353–2368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pourghasemi HR, Beheshtirad M (2014) Assessment of a data-driven evidential belief function model and GIS for groundwater potential mapping in the Koohrang Watershed, Iran. Geocarto Int. doi:10.1080/10106049.2014.966161

  • Quan R (2014) Risk assessment of flood disaster in Shanghai based on spatial–temporal characteristics analysis from 251 to 2000. Environ Earth Sci. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3360-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahmati O, Nazari Samani A, Mahdavi M, Pourghasemi HR, Zeinivand H (2014) Groundwater potential mapping at Kurdistan region of Iran using analytic hierarchy process and GIS. Arab J Geosci. doi:10.1007/s12517-014-1668-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahmati O, Pourghasemi HR, Zeinivand H (2015a) Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models in the Golastan Province, Iran. Geocarto International. doi:10.1080/10106049.2015.1041559

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahmati O, Zeinivand H, Besharat M (2015b) Flood hazard zoning in Yasooj region, Iran, using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis. Geomatics, Natural Hazards Risk. doi:10.1080/19475705.2015.1045043

    Google Scholar 

  • Razandi Y, Pourghasemi HR, Samani Neisani N, Rahmati O (2015) Application of analytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio, and certainty factor models for groundwater potential mapping using GIS. Earth Sci Inform. doi:10.1007/s12145-015-0220-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty TL (1980) The analytic hierarchy process: planning, priority setting, resource allocation. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Saghafian B, Farazjoo H, Bozorgy B, Yazdandoost F (2008) Flood intensification due to changes in land use. Water Resour Manage 22:1051–1067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schober B, Hauer C, Habersack H (2013) A novel assessment of the role of Danube floodplains in flood hazard reduction (FEM method). Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0880-y

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharifi F, Mahdavi M (2001) Technical report on investigating causes of summer flooding on North-east of Golestan-Iran deputy of watershed management-Iran (in Persian).

  • Sharifi F, Samadi SZ, Wilson CAME (2012) Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran. Nat Hazards 61:533–550

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma VS, Naithani BP, Singh M (2014) Remote sensing and GIS approach for hazard vulnerability assessment of Upper Alaknanda Basin, Garhwal Himalaya (Uttarakhand). Landscape Ecology and Water Management, India, pp 273–286

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinha R, Bapalu GV, Singh LK, Rath B (2008) Flood risk analysis in the Kosi River Basin, North Bihar using multi-parametric approach of analytical hierarchy process (AHP). J Indian Soc Remote Sens 36:335–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stefanidis S, Stathis D (2013) Assessment of flood hazard based on natural and anthropogenic factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Nat Hazards 68:569–585

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tehrany MS, Pradhan B, Jebur MN (2013) Spatial prediction of flood susceptible areas using rule based decision tree (DT) and a novel ensemble bivariate and multivariate statistical models in GIS. J Hydrol. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.034

    Google Scholar 

  • Tehrany MS, Lee MJ, Pradhan B, Jebur MN, Lee S (2014a) Flood susceptibility mapping using integrated bivariate and multivariate statistical models. Environ Earth Sci. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3289-3

    Google Scholar 

  • Tehrany MS, Pradhan B, Jebur MN (2014b) Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS. J Hydrol 512:332–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tehrany MS, Pradhan B, Jebur MN (2015a) Flood susceptibility analysis and its verification using a novel ensemble support vector machine and frequency ratio method. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1021-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Tehrany MS, Pradhan B, Mansor S, Ahmad N (2015b) Flood susceptibility assessment using GIS-based support vector machine model with different kernel types. Catena 125:91–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tien Bui D, Pradhan B, Lofman O, Revhaug I, Dick OB (2012) Landslide susceptibility mapping at Hoa Binh province (Vietnam) using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and GIS. Comput Geosci 45:199–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Z, Batelaan O, De Smedt F (1997) A distributed model for Water and energy transfer between soil, plants and atmosphere (WetSpa). Phys Chem Earth 21:189–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y, Li Z, Tang Z, Zeng G (2011) A GIS-based spatial multi-criteria approach for flood risk assessment in the Dongting Lake Region, Hunan, Central China. Water Resour Manage 25:3465–3484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams JR, Nicks AD, Arnold JG (1985) Simulator for water resources in rural basins. J Hydraul Eng 111(6):970–986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Y, Chen J (2013) Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate River Basin in South China. J Environ Manage 51:1174–1186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu C, Chen Y, Chen Y, Zhao R, Ding H (2013) Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River Basin, China. J Environ Manage 51:926–938

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeinivand H, De Smedt F (2009) Hydrological modeling of snow accumulation and melting on River Basin scale. Water Resour Manage 23:2271–2287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeinivand H, De Smedt F (2010) Prediction of snowmelt floods with a distributed hydrological model using a physical snow mass and energy balance approach. Nat Hazards 54:451–468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang G, Guhathakurta S, Dai G, Wu L, Yan L (2013) The control of land-use patterns for stormwater management at multiple spatial scales. J Environ Manage 51:555–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou Q, Zhou J, Zhou C, Song L, Guo J (2013) Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 27:525–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank editorial comments and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on the previous version of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Watershed Management Engineering, College of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran

    Omid Rahmati & Ali Haghizadeh

  2. Faculty of Forestry and Natural Environment, Institute of Mountainous Water Management and Control, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Stefanos Stefanidis

Authors
  1. Omid Rahmati
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ali Haghizadeh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Stefanos Stefanidis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Omid Rahmati.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rahmati, O., Haghizadeh, A. & Stefanidis, S. Assessing the Accuracy of GIS-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process for Watershed Prioritization; Gorganrood River Basin, Iran. Water Resour Manage 30, 1131–1150 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1215-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1215-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation