Abstract
The variability of the relationship between precipitation and runoff is of vital importance to study the characteristics of regional water cycle and water resource management and planning. In this study, in order to explore the relationship between precipitation and runoff of the different hydrological patterns, the analysis of bivariate precipitation and runoff distributions and the simultaneous occurrence probability was analyzed by employing the Archimedean copula, based on the monthly runoff and precipitation data during 1960 ~ 2000 in the upper Huai river basin, China. The results indicated that: (I) the study region could be classified into four hydrological patterns, namely the Huai river valley zone, Huaibei plain zone, Huainan mountain zone and Huaibei mountain zone, with Xixian, Zhuanqiao, Meishan and Zhaopingtai as the maximal loading subbasin respectively. (II) There were positive dependence structure between precipitation and runoff in the study area, and the bivariate frequency distributions could be fitted best by the Gumbel-Hougaard copula. (III) The simultaneous occurrence probability of bivariate drought events was remarkable higher than that of corresponding classification of bivariate flood events; besides, the simultaneous occurrence probability of bivariate extreme events was maximum in the Huainan mountain zone, followed by the Huai river valley zone and Huaibei mountain zone, while that was minimum in the Huaibei plain zone. These results would be of essential guiding significance for water resource management and planning, flood and drought control and layout optimization of water conservancy projects in the study region.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bates B, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof J (2008) Climate change and water. Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva
Bekrizadeh H, Ali Parham G, Reza Zadkarmi M (2013) Weighted Clayton copulas and their characterizations: application to probable modeling of the hydrology data. J Data Sci 11:293–303
Berg D (2009) Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison The European. J Financ 15:675–701
Bezak N, Mikoš M, Šraj M (2014) Trivariate frequency analyses of peak discharge, hydrograph volume and suspended sediment concentration data using copulas. Water Resour Manag 28:2195–2212. doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0606-2
China Water Huaihe Ministry of Water Resources and Water Conservancy Commission (2002) Analysis of flood disaster and drought disaster in Huai river basin (in chinese)
Frahm G, Junker M, Schmidt R (2005) Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient: properties and pitfalls. Insurance: Math Econ 37:80–100
Ganguli P, Reddy MJ (2012) Risk assessment of droughts in Gujarat using bivariate copulas. Water Resour Manag 26:3301–3327. doi:10.1007/s11269-012-0073-6
Golian S, Saghafian B, Farokhnia A, Rivard C (2012) Copula-based interpretation of continuous rainfall–runoff simulations of a watershed in northern Iran Canadian. J Earth Sci 49:681–691
Hannachi A (2004) A primer for EOF analysis of climate data department of meteorology. University of Reading
Hannachi A, Jolliffe I, Stephenson D (2007) Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review. Int J Climatol 27:1119–1152
Kleinen T, Petschel-Held G (2007) Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change. Clim Chang 81:283–312
Li L, Linna Z, Yuanfa G (2012) Probability distribution of summer daily precipitation in the Huaihe basin of China based on Gamma distribution. Acta Meteorol Sin 26:72–84. doi:10.1007/s13351-012-0107-2
Lian J, Xu K, Ma C (2012) Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9:7475–7505. doi:10.5194/hessd-9-7475-2012
Lin CA et al (2006) Atmospheric-hydrological modeling of severe precipitation and floods in the Huaihe River Basin, China. J Hydrol 330:249–259. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.028
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology. vol. 22. American Meteorological Society Boston, p 179–183
Nelsen RB (1999) An introduction to copulas. Springer, Verlag
Reddy MJ, Ganguli P (2012) Bivariate flood frequency analysis of upper Godavari river flows using Archimedean copulas. Water Resour Manag 26:3995–4018. doi:10.1007/s11269-012-0124-z
Salvadori G, De Michele C (2007) On the use of copulas in hydrology: theory and practice. J Hydrol Eng 12:369–380
Savenije HH (1996) The runoff coefficient as the key to moisture recycling. J Hydrol 176:219–225
Shiau JT (2006) Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas. Water Resour Manag 20:795–815. doi:10.1007/s11269-005-9008-9
Shukla S, Wood AW (2008) Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys Res Lett 35, L02405. doi:10.1029/2007GL032487
Syed TH, Lakshmi V, Paleologos E, Lohmann D, Mitchell K, Famiglietti JS (2004) Analysis of process controls in land surface hydrological cycle over the continental United States. J Geophys Res-Atmos 109, D22105. doi:10.1029/2004JD004640
Vicente-Serrano SM, López-Moreno JI (2005) Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the standardized precipitation index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9:523–533
Xia J, Du H, Zeng S, She D, Zhang Y, Yan Z, Ye Y (2012a) Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956–2010. J Geogr Sci 22:1045–1060. doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0982-6
Xia J, She D, Zhang Y, Du H (2012b) Spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in Huaihe River Basin during 1960–2009. J Geogr Sci 22:195–208. doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0921-6
Yao CS (1997) A new method of cluster analysis for numerical classification of climate. Theor Appl Climatol 57:111–118
Yuan X, Zhou Y, Jin J, Wei Y (2013) Risk analysis for drought hazard in China: a case study in Huaibei Plain. Nat Hazards 67:879–900. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0614-1
Yusof F, Hui-Mean F, Suhaila J, Yusof Z (2013) Characterisation of drought properties with bivariate copula analysis. Water Resour Manag 27:4183–4207. doi:10.1007/s11269-013-0402-4
Zhang L (2005) Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis and risk mapping. Louisiana State University
Zhang L, Singh VP (2012) Bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis using entropy and copula theories. Entropy 14:1784–1812
Zhou Y, Ma Z, Wang L (2002) Chaotic dynamics of the flood series in the Huaihe River Basin for the last 500 years. J Hydrol 258:100–110. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00561-3
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2010CB951102) and the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (Grant No.51021066). We thank the editors and anonymous reviewers for their critical and constructive comments and suggestions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xing, Z., Yan, D., Zhang, C. et al. Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China. Water Resour Manage 29, 3291–3304 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0997-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0997-8