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An Integrated Model for Simulating Water Resources Management at Regional Scale

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Abstract

Simulation is considered a fundamental component in research on management of water resources, which can provide information to decision makers. An integrated model is developed here for simulating water resource management. After analysis of influences on water use, this model was separated into seven main modules: Population, Economy, Land Change, Water Demand, Water Supply, Wastewater, and Water Quality. Relationships between and within the modules were formulated based on mathematical models. The model was run dynamically based on system dynamics. It was then used to successfully simulate water use in Laoshan District of China after validation and calibration by historical data, with small mean relative error (<15 %) and great coefficient of determination (>0.65). Three scenarios were analyzed to develop effective water use solutions to support development of socioeconomic and ecological health. The results show that integrated management toward improving water use efficiency and the water-resource use mix is an effective solution. And the integrated model developed here is useful for decision makers to simulate and analyze the scenarios for water resource management.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the Water Environment Monitoring Centre of Qingdao and Water Conservancy Bureau of Laoshan District, who provided historical data. This study has been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41030856) and the Project of Taishan Scholar. We also thank the experts who commented on and revised the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Marine Geosciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China

    Jiejun Yang & Guangxue Li

  2. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China

    Lin Wang

  3. College of Environment and Safety Engineering, Qingdao University of Science & Technology, Qingdao, 266100, China

    Jun Zhou

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  1. Jiejun Yang
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  2. Guangxue Li
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  3. Lin Wang
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  4. Jun Zhou
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Correspondence to Jiejun Yang.

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Yang, J., Li, G., Wang, L. et al. An Integrated Model for Simulating Water Resources Management at Regional Scale. Water Resour Manage 29, 1607–1622 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0897-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0897-3

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