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Assessing Financial Loss due to Pluvial Flooding and the Efficacy of Risk-Reduction Measures in the Residential Property Sector

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Abstract

A novel quantitative risk assessment for residential properties at risk of pluvial flooding in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, is presented. A hydraulic model belonging to Eindhoven was forced with low return period rainfall events (2, 5 and 10-year design rainfalls). Three scenarios were analysed for each event: a baseline and two risk-reduction scenarios. GIS analysis identified areas where risk-reduction measures had the greatest impact. Financial loss calculations were carried out using fixed-threshold and probabilistic approaches. Under fixed-threshold assessment, per-event Expected Annual Damage (EAD) reached €38.2 m, with reductions of up to €454,000 resulting from risk-reduction measures. Present costs of flooding reach €1.43bn when calculated over a 50-year period. All net-present value figures for the risk-reduction measures are negative. Probabilistic assessment yielded EAD values up to more than double those of the fixed-threshold analysis which suggested positive net-present value. To the best of our knowledge, the probabilistic method based on the distribution of doorstep heights has never before been introduced for pluvial flood risk assessment. Although this work suggests poor net-present value of risk-reduction measures, indirect impacts of flooding, damage to infrastructure and the potential impacts of climate change were omitted. This work represents a useful first step in helping Eindhoven prepare for future pluvial flooding. The analysis is based on software and tools already available at the municipality, eliminating the need for software upgrading or training. The approach is generally applicable to similar cities.

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the European Commission Seventh Framework Program (EC FP7) project ‘PREPARED: Enabling Change’ (www.prepared-fp7.eu; programme grant number: 244232). We gratefully acknowledge William Veerbeek (UNESCO-IHE) for kindly donating the Rotterdam doorstep measurement data for use on this research. We thank all partners in PREPARED who have contributed to discussions regarding this work. We thank two anonymous reviewers for constructive reviews that improved the manuscript.

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Author notes

  1. Janez Sušnik

    Present address: Integrated Water Systems and Governance Department, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, PO Box 3015, 2601DA, Delft, The Netherlands

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Water Systems College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QF, UK

    Janez Sušnik, Lydia S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Dragan A. Savić & Zoran Kapelan

  2. IWW Water Centre, Moritzstr. 26, 45476, Mülheim an der Ruhr, Germany

    Clemens Strehl & Hans-Joachim Mälzer

  3. Green and Water Department, Municipality of Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

    Luuk A. Postmes

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  1. Janez Sušnik
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Correspondence to Janez Sušnik.

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Sušnik, J., Strehl, C., Postmes, L.A. et al. Assessing Financial Loss due to Pluvial Flooding and the Efficacy of Risk-Reduction Measures in the Residential Property Sector. Water Resour Manage 29, 161–179 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0833-6

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