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An Integrated Approach for Partitioning the Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff

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Abstract

Climate change and human activities have been identified as the two main reasons for the change in runoff. To better understand the factors causing runoff change, this paper develops an integrated approach which combined the elasticity coefficient approach (including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) and the hydrological modelling approach (using SIMHYD models) for partitioning the impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff. The Guanzhong River Basin(GRB), which is the sub-basin of the Wei River basin in China is chosen as the study area. In this study, trends in runoff, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1958 to 2008 are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and change-points in the annual runoff from 1958 to 2008 are sought using the Fu formula, Mann-Kendall test and double mass curve. The calibrated and validated rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD is used to simulate the runoff in the GRB during 1958–2008. Seven different methods are used to calculate the elasticity coefficient and then the elasticity coefficient methods are used to evaluate the contribution of climate change and human activities. Combining all these results, the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change is 34.1 ~ 47.3 and 52.7 ~ 65.9 %, respectively. The study provides scientific foundation for understanding the causes of water resources decrease and significant information for water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities.

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Acknowledgments

This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271003, 41371043), Key Project for the Strategic Science Plan in IGSNRR, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2012ZD003), and the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) (IWHR-SKL-201311).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Chesheng Zhan

  2. Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Yangtze River Water Resources Committee, Wuhan, 430010, China

    Sidong Zeng

  3. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekou Wai, Haidian, Beijing, 100875, China

    Shanshan Jiang, Huixiao Wang & Wen Ye

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  1. Chesheng Zhan
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  2. Sidong Zeng
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  5. Wen Ye
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Correspondence to Shanshan Jiang.

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Zhan, C., Zeng, S., Jiang, S. et al. An Integrated Approach for Partitioning the Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff. Water Resour Manage 28, 3843–3858 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0713-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0713-0

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