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Probabilistic Water Demand Forecasting Using Projected Climatic Data for Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia

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Abstract

Long term water demand forecasting is needed for the efficient planning and management of water supply systems. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted in this paper to quantify the uncertainties in long term water demand prediction due to the stochastic nature of predictor variables and their correlation structures. Three future climatic scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and four different levels of water restrictions are considered in the demand forecasting for single and multiple dwelling residential sectors in the Blue Mountains region, Australia. It is found that future water demand in 2040 would rise by 2 to 33 % (median rise by 11 %) and 72 to 94 % (median rise by 84 %) for the single and multiple dwelling residential sectors, respectively under different climatic and water restriction scenarios in comparison to water demand in 2010 (base year). The uncertainty band for single dwelling residential sector is found to be 0.3 to 0.4 GL/year, which represent 11 to 13 % variation around the median forecasted demand. It is found that the increase in future water demand is not notably affected by the projected climatic conditions but by the increase in the dwelling numbers in future i.e. the increase in total population. The modelling approach presented in this paper can provide realistic scenarios of forecasted water demands which would assist water authorities in devising appropriate management strategies to enhance the resilience of the water supply systems. The developed method can be adapted to other water supply systems in Australia and other countries.

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Acknowledgements

Water consumption data were obtained from Sydney Water in 4 May 2012. The best available data at the time of study was used, which may be updated in near future. The authors express their sincere thanks to Pei Tillman and Frank Spaninks of Sydney Water for their assistance in collating and providing the data. Further, the authors are grateful to Lucinda Maunsell and Peter Cox of Sydney Water and Mahes Maheswaran of Sydney Catchment Authority for their cooperation and assistance during data collection and analysis. Authors acknowledge two anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for their constructive comments that have assisted to improve the paper notably.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Building XB, Room 2.48, Kingswood, Penrith Campus, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia

    Md Mahmudul Haque, Ataur Rahman & Dharma Hagare

  2. Sydney Catchment Authority, Penrith, NSW, 2750, Australia

    Golam Kibria

Authors
  1. Md Mahmudul Haque
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  2. Ataur Rahman
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  3. Dharma Hagare
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  4. Golam Kibria
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Correspondence to Ataur Rahman.

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Haque, M.M., Rahman, A., Hagare, D. et al. Probabilistic Water Demand Forecasting Using Projected Climatic Data for Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia. Water Resour Manage 28, 1959–1971 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0587-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0587-1

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