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Simplified Monthly Hydrology and Irrigation Water Use Model to Explore Sustainable Water Management Options in the Murray-Darling Basin

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Abstract

We aimed to provide whole-of-basin simulations of flows and diversions in the Murray-Darling Basin for economic and policy analysis. We describe a model based on a subdivision of the basin into 58 catchments. In each catchment, the monthly runoff, river flow and irrigation demand are modelled as lumped processes. This is the first single model of the whole of the Murray-Darling Basin. The model was calibrated using monthly flow and annual diversion records, both by trial and error and using an automated method. We use the model to examine the impact on the flow and diversions in the Murray-Darling Basin of proposed diversion reductions and climate change. The diversion reductions return water to the environment, increasing river flows below the main irrigation areas. However, a middle-of-the-range climate change projection may result in a 13 % decrease in total flows in 2030, which offsets the enhancement to flows gained by diversion reductions.

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Acknowledgments

This paper is a contribution to the synthesis work of CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country. Geoff Podger of CSIRO Land and Water made constructive suggestions in model development, and Jai Vaze and Dushmanta Dutta of CSIRO Land and Water made helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    J. M. Kirby, Md. Mainuddin & M. D. Ahmad

  2. CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 2, Glen Osmond, SA, 5064, Australia

    L. Gao

Authors
  1. J. M. Kirby
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  2. Md. Mainuddin
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  3. M. D. Ahmad
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  4. L. Gao
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. M. Kirby.

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Highlights

• The first consistent all of basin model of the Murray-Darling Basin

• Fast, flexible model suited to rapid exploration of policy options

• First assessment of combined impact of climate change and diversion limit in Murray-Darling Basin

• Proposed diversion limit increases environmental flows

• Projected median climate change reverses increase in flows, with marginal impact on diversions

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Kirby, J.M., Mainuddin, M., Ahmad, M.D. et al. Simplified Monthly Hydrology and Irrigation Water Use Model to Explore Sustainable Water Management Options in the Murray-Darling Basin. Water Resour Manage 27, 4083–4097 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0397-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0397-x

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