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Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case

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Abstract

This study investigated the sensitivity of a dynamic downscaling atmospheric model system coupled with a rainfall-runoff model to hindcast an example of reservoir water management in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB). A regional atmospheric spectral model (RSM) is driven by the outputs of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), itself forced by the observed sea surface temperature over the World Ocean. Daily precipitation simulated by the RSM was then used as the input to a hydrological rainfall-runoff model for the Upper Jaguaribe River Basin to estimate inflows at the Orós Reservoir in the state of Ceará. A hindcast analysis of precipitation was performed during the rainy season over NEB (January to June) from 1971 to 2000. The RSM captured the precipitation variability relatively well when a probability density function (PDF) was used to correct the numerical bias. Three hindcast series of inflow using (i) the observed rainfall, (ii) the simulated rainfall before the PDF correction, and (iii) the simulated rainfall after the PDF correction were performed during the study period and then compared to the series of observed inflow. The atmospheric-rainfall-runoff “cascade” model efficiency was evaluated by comparing the Orós Reservoir release decisions from different scenarios based on observed, simulated (RSM, RSM-PDF), and mean historical reservoir inflows. The cascade model has the potential, relatively well balanced during dry, normal or wet years, to be a useful tool to correctly forecast the decision managements of reservoirs in the semi-arid region of NEB. Additional progress in the numerical simulation is however necessary to improve the performance.

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Acknowledgements

This work was part of the CNPq-IRD Project “Climate of the Tropical Atlantic and Impacts on the Northeast” (CATIN) N° CNPq Process 492690/2004-9 and FINEP/FCPC Project “Center of Alert of Extremes Fenomens (CAFE) N° FINEP/FCPC Process 01080617/00. The authors thank the Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME) and the Fundação Cearense para o Apoio Científico e Tecnológico (FUNCAP) for the PhD Scholarship Program of the first author, and a grant for the third author. Comments and suggestions by the two anonymous reviewers and the Editor really helped in improving the manuscript.

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  1. Jacques Servain

    Present address: Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME), Av. Rui Barbosa 1246, Aldeota, 60115-221, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME), Av. Rui Barbosa 1246, Aldeota, 60115-221, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil

    José Maria Brabo Alves

  2. Departamento de Engenharia Hidráulica e Ambiental - Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

    José Nilson B. Campos

  3. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR-182, Paris, France

    Jacques Servain

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  1. José Maria Brabo Alves
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  2. José Nilson B. Campos
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  3. Jacques Servain
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Correspondence to José Maria Brabo Alves.

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Alves, J.M.B., Campos, J.N.B. & Servain, J. Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case. Water Resour Manage 26, 1365–1385 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9963-2

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