Abstract
Distributed hydrological models should pass through a careful calibration procedure backed by sensitivity, uncertainty and predictive analysis before they are utilized as a decision making aid in watershed management and scenario studies. This paper examines whether the uncertainty of the parameters of the spatially distributed hydrologic model WetSpa causes significant uncertainty in the model predictions. The WetSpa model is applied to the Torysa river basin, a rather large catchment located in Slovakia. Parameter estimation, sensitivity and predictive analysis of the model parameters are performed using a model-independent parameter estimator, PEST. It is found that the correction factor for measured evaporation data has the highest relative sensitivity. Parameter uncertainty and predictive analysis give an insight of a proper parameter set and parameter uncertainty intervals and prove that the parameter uncertainty of the model does not result in a significant level of predictive uncertainty.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbaspour KC, Yang J, Maximov I, Siber R, Bogner K, Mieleitner J, Zobrist J, Srinivasan R (2007) Spatially-distributed modelling of hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. J Hydrol 333:413–430
Bahremand A (2006) Simulating the effects of reforestation on floods using spatially distributedhydrologic modeling and GIS. PhD thesis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
Bahremand A, De Smedt F (2008) Distributed hydrological modeling and sensitivity analysis in Torysa watershed, Slovakia. Water Resour Manag 22:393–408
Bahremand A, De Smedt F, Corluy J, Liu YB, Poórová J, Velcická L, Kuniková E (2007) WetSpa model application for assessing reforestation impacts on floods by in Margecany–Hornad watershed, Slovakia. Water Resour Manag 21:1373–1391
Beven K, Binley A (1992) The future of distributed models—model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol Process 6(3):279–298
De Smedt F, Liu YB, Gebremeskel S (2000) Hydrological modeling on a catchment scale using GIS and remote sensed land use information. In: Brebbia CA (ed) Risk analysis II. WTI, Boston, pp 295–304
Doherty J (2005) PEST: model independent parameter estimation, user manual, 5th edn. Watermark Numerical Computing, Brisbane
Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, New York, p 126
Liu YB (2004) Development and application of a GIS-based hydrological model for flood prediction and watershed management. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
Liu YB, De Smedt F (2004) WetSpa extension, documentation and user manual, department of hydrology and hydraulic engineering. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
Muleta MK, Nicklow JW (2004) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model. J Hydrol 306:127–145
van Griensven A (2002) Developments towards integrated water quality modeling for river basins. PhD thesis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
van Griensven A, Meixner T (2006) Methods to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty for river basin water quality models. Water Sci Technol 53(1):51–59
Wang Z, Batelaan O, De Smedt F (1997) A distributed model for water and energy transfer between soil, plants and atmosphere (WetSpa). Phys Chem Earth 21:189–193
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bahremand, A., De Smedt, F. Predictive Analysis and Simulation Uncertainty of a Distributed Hydrological Model. Water Resour Manage 24, 2869–2880 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9584-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9584-1