Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Risk-Based Evaluation for Meeting Future Water Demand of the Brahmaputra Floodplain Within Bangladesh

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A risk-based evaluation is performed for meeting future water demands in the Brahmaputra Floodplain Area within Bangladesh (BFA). This evaluation is carried out using three risk-based performance indicators: reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. The vulnerability indicator has been redefined incorporating the aspect of a supply failure. The analysis includes the impacts of climate change on both water demands and resources, and the generation of synthetic flows of the Brahmaputra River using time series models. The simulated values of the indicators reveal that the expected demand of the BFA up to the year 2050 can be supplied with the proposed Brahmaputra Barrage inside Bangladesh under the ‘no change’ in climatic condition, provided that the groundwater remains usable. However, if groundwater becomes unusable due to widespread arsenic contamination and/or a climate change occurs, it would not be possible to meet the future water demand of the region with high reliability, moderate resiliency and low vulnerability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bayazit M, Unal NE (1990) Effects of hedging on reservoir performance. Water Resour Res 26(4):713–719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC (1994) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs

    Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH, Venema HD, Simonovic SP (1991) Risk-based performance criteria for real time reservoir operation. Can J Civ Eng 18:36–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdhury JU, Haque A (1990) Permissible water withdrawal based upon prediction of salt-water intrusion in the Meghna Delta. IAHS Publication No. 197:111–117

    Google Scholar 

  • Expert Study Group, Halcrow SW et al (1984) Engineering appraisal of the Brahmaputra multipurpose development project. Bangladesh Water Development Board, Dhaka

    Google Scholar 

  • Farquharson F, Fung F, Chowdhury JU, Hassan A, Horsburgh K, Lowe J (2007) Impact of climate and sea level change in part of the Indian Sub-Continent (CLASIC). Final report, Department for International Development, UK

  • Fiering MB (1982a) A screening model to quantify resilience. Water Resour Res 18(1):27–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiering MB (1982b) Alternative indices of resilience. Water Resour Res 18(1):33–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hashimoto T, Stedinger JR, Loucks DP (1982) Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resour Res 18(1):14–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, McLeod AI (1994) Time series modeling of water resources and environmental systems. Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Islam MS (2004) Optimal water application decisions with deficit irrigation. PhD dissertation, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka

  • Kjeldsen TR, Rosbjerg D (2004) Choice of reliability, resilience and vulnerability estimators for risk assessments of water resources systems. Hydrol Sci J 49(5):755–767

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klemes V (1977) Value of information in reservoir optimization. Water Resour Res 13(5):837–850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Water Resources (1999) National water policy. Ministry of Water Resources, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka

    Google Scholar 

  • Mondal MS (2005) Risk-based evaluation of performance in water management for the Ganges delta within Bangladesh. PhD dissertation, Faculty of Informatics and Communication, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Australia

  • Mondal MS, Chowdhury JU, Khatun F (2007) Risk-based evaluation of Brahmaputra water development in meeting future water demand, Technical report 1: generation of synthetic flows of the Brahmaputra River using time series models. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka

  • Mondal MS, Chowdhury JU, Ferdous MR (2008) Risk-based evaluation of Brahmaputra water development in meeting future water demand, Technical report 2: risk-based evaluation of performance of proposed barrage on the Brahmaputra. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka

  • Moy WS, Cohon JL, ReVelle CS (1986) A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resour Res 22(4):489–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad AS, Umamahesh NV, Viswanath GK (2006) Optimal irrigation planning under water scarcity. J Irrig Drain Eng 132(3):228–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salas JD, Boes DC, Yevjevich V, Pegram GGS (1979) Hurst phenomenon as a pre-asymptotic behaviour. J Hydrol 44:1–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simonovic SP, Venema HD, Burn DH (1992) Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation. J Hydrol 131:269–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stedinger JR, Taylor MR (1982) Synthetic streamflow generation: model verification and validation. Water Resour Res 18(4):909–918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stewart JI, Hagan RM, Pruitt WO et al (1977) Optimizing crop production through control of water and salinity levels in the soil. Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan

    Google Scholar 

  • Tickle K (1997) An investigation of the use of performance metrics for modelling uncertainty in water resource systems. PhD dissertation, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia

  • WARPO (1996) River survey project, Special report no. 24: morphological processes in the Jamuna River. Flood Action Plan 24, Water Resources Planning Organization, Dhaka

  • WARPO (2001) National water management plan, volume 2: main report. National Water Management Plan Project, Water Resources Planning Organization, Dhaka

  • Weeraratne JR, Logan L, Unny TE (1986) Performance evaluation of alternate policies on reservoir system operation. Can J Civ Eng 13:203–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal & Jahir Uddin Chowdhury

  2. Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh

    Md. Ruknul Ferdous

Authors
  1. Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jahir Uddin Chowdhury
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Md. Ruknul Ferdous
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mondal, M.S., Chowdhury, J.U. & Ferdous, M.R. Risk-Based Evaluation for Meeting Future Water Demand of the Brahmaputra Floodplain Within Bangladesh. Water Resour Manage 24, 853–869 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9475-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9475-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation