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Defining the Scope of Aid Reduction and Its Challenges for Civil Society Organizations: Laying the Foundation for New Theory

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Abstract

Much of the literature on local civil society organizations and foreign aid focuses on the short-term consequences of funding cycles and contract conditions, but treats foreign aid at the macrolevel like a largely stable condition, as though countries receiving foreign aid will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Empirical evidence of aid reduction, however, suggests that this approach neglects long-term phenomena. This article examines aid patterns on a global scale and explores their potential consequences for civil society organizations. Working from World Bank data, we identify general patterns in country-level aid reduction. We examine the frequency of country-level aid reduction, the magnitude of reduction, its duration, and whether aid reduction tends to be rapid or gradual. Mapping these patterns establishes that country-level reductions in aid are a regularly occurring, global phenomenon. Moreover, even as global ODA levels increase, instances of country-level aid reduction are also increasing. Our findings lay the foundation for building new, generalizable theory about aid reduction and allow us to identify pressing questions about the consequences for civil society organizations in need of further research.

Résumé

La littérature sur les organisations de société civile locales et l’aide étrangère porte en majorité sur les conséquences à court terme des cycles de financement et des conditions des contrats, tout en traitant l’aide financière au niveau macroscopique en tant que condition largement stable, comme si les pays qui en reçoivent continueront à le faire dans un avenir prévisible. Des preuves empiriques de la réduction de l’aide suggèrent cependant que cette approche néglige les phénomènes à long terme. Le présent article étudie les modèles de l’aide à l’échelle mondiale et explore les incidences qu’ils pourraient avoir sur les organisations de société civile. À partir de données de la Banque mondiale, nous identifions des modèles généraux de réduction de l’aide au niveau national. Nous examinons la fréquence de ladite réduction, la magnitude de cette dernière et ses tendances, soit rapide ou progressive. En cartographiant ces modèles, nous déterminons que les réductions de l’aide par pays constituent un phénomène mondial à occurrence régulière. Qui plus est, les réductions de l’aide de niveau national diminuent de plus en plus en plus au fur et à mesure que l’aide au développement à l’étranger augmente. Nos résultats établissent le fondement d’une nouvelle théorie sur la réduction de l’aide pouvant être généralisée. Ils nous permettent aussi d’identifier des questions urgentes sur les conséquences qui toucheront les organisations de société civile nécessitant des recherches plus poussées.

Zusammenfassung

Ein Großteil der Literatur zum Thema Bürgergesellschaftsorganisationen und ausländische Hilfe konzentriert sich auf die kurzfristigen Folgen der Finanzierungszyklen und Vertragsbedingungen, betrachtet die ausländische Hilfe auf der Makroebene jedoch als einen weitgehend stabilen Zustand, als würden die Länder auch in absehbarer Zukunft ausländische Hilfe erhalten. Empirische Beweise für eine Reduzierung der Hilfeleistungen legen jedoch nahe, dass dieser Ansatz langfristige Phänomene außer Acht lässt. Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Hilfsmodelle auf globaler Ebene und erforscht ihre potenziellen Folgen für Bürgergesellschaftsorganisationen. Man stützt sich auf Daten der Weltbank und ermittelt allgemeine Muster der Hilfereduzierung auf der Länderebene. Untersucht werden die Häufigkeit der Hilfereduzierung auf der Länderebene, der Umfang der Reduzierung, ihre Dauer und ob die Hilfereduzierung in der Regel schnell oder schrittweise erfolgt. Eine Darstellung dieser Muster zeigt, dass die Hilfereduzierungen auf der Länderebene ein regelmäßiges globales Phänomen sind. Zudem ist trotz eines Anstiegs der globalen ODA-Leistungen auch eine vermehrte Reduzierung der Hilfeleistungen auf der Länderebene zu sehen. Die Ergebnisse schaffen die Basis für die Entwicklung einer neuen, verallgemeinerbaren Theorie zur Hilfereduzierung und zeigen die dringenden Fragen über die Folgen für Bürgergesellschaftsorganisationen auf, die weiter untersucht werden müssen.

Resumen

Una gran parte del material publicado sobre las organizaciones de la sociedad civil y sobre la ayuda extranjera se centra en las consecuencias a corto plazo de los ciclos de financiación y las condiciones de los contratos, pero trata la ayuda extranjera a nivel macro como una condición ampliamente estable, como si los países que reciben ayuda extranjera continuasen haciéndolo en un futuro previsible. Las evidencias empíricas de la reducción de la ayuda, sin embargo, sugieren que este enfoque descuida los fenómenos a largo plazo. El presente artículo examina los patrones de la ayuda a escala global y explora sus consecuencias potenciales para las organizaciones de la sociedad civil. Mediante la elaboración de datos del Banco Mundial, identificamos patrones generales en la reducción de la ayuda a nivel de país. Examinamos la frecuencia de la reducción de la ayuda a nivel de país, la magnitud de la reducción, su duración, y si la reducción de la ayuda tiende a ser rápida o gradual. La cartografía de estos patrones establece que las reducciones en la ayuda a nivel de país son un fenómeno global que se produce de manera regular. Asimismo, aun cuando los niveles globales de ODA (ayuda oficial al desarrollo) aumentan, los casos de reducción de la ayuda a nivel de país también están aumentando. Nuestros hallazgos ponen los cimientos para la creación de una nueva teoría generalizable sobre la reducción de la ayuda y nos permiten identificar cuestiones apremiantes sobre las consecuencias para las organizaciones de la sociedad civil que necesitan investigación adicional.

Chinese

当地民间团体组织及国外援助的许多文献都专注于拨款周期和合同条件的短期后果,但在宏观层面将国外援助视为大体稳定的条件,尽管接受国外援助的国家继续在可以预见的未来这么做。然而,援助减少的经验证据表明,这种方法会忽略长期现象。本文检查了全球规模的援助模式,并探讨它们对民间团体组织的潜在后果。通过世界银行的数据,我们确定了国家层面援助减少的一般模式。我们检查了国家层面援助减少的频率,减少程度,其持续时间额援助减少是否是快速或逐渐。绘制这些模式表明,国家层面的援助减少是经常出现的全球现象。此外,即使随着全球ODA层面增加,国家层面的援助减少情况也在增加。我们的调查结果奠定了构建援助减少的概括化理论的基础,让我们能够确定需要进一步研究的民间团体组织后果的紧迫问题。

Arabic

يركز الكثير من الأدب في منظمات المجتمع المدني المحلية والمساعدات الخارجية على العواقب قصيرة الأجل لدورات التمويل وشروط العقد، لكن يتم معاملة المساعدات الخارجية على المستوى الكلي كأنها حالة مستقرة إلى حد كبير، كما لو أن البلدان التي تتلقى مساعدات أجنبية سوف تواصل القيام بذلك في المستقبل المنظور. لكن، الأدلة التجريبية لتخفيض المعونة، تشير إلى أن هذا النهج يهمل الظواهر الطويلة الأجل. تبحث هذه المقالة أنماط المساعدات على نطاق عالمي وتستكشف عواقبها المحتملةعلى منظمات المجتمع المدني. بالعمل من بيانات البنك الدولي، نحدد الأنماط العامة في خفض المعونة على مستوى البلد. نحن ندرس معدل تكرار تخفيض المعونة على مستوى البلد، حجم التخفيض، مدته، و إذا كان تخفيض المعونة يميل إلى أن يكون سريعا” أو تدريجيا.” يحدد رسم هذه الأنماط أن التخفيضات على مستوى البلد في المعونة هي ظاهرة عالمية تحدث بإنتظام. علاوة على ذلك، حتى مع ازدياد مستويات المساعدة التنموية الرسمية على المستوى العالمي، تتزايد أيضا حالات تخفيض المعونة على مستوى البلد. إن النتائج التي توصلنا إليها ترسي الأساس لبناء نظرية جديدة قابلة للتعميم حول الحد من المعونة وتسمح لنا بتحديد الأسئلة الملحة حول العواقب لمنظمات المجتمع المدني التي تحتاج إلى مزيد من البحث.

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Change history

  • 10 May 2018

    The PDF version of this article was reformatted to a larger trim size.

Notes

  1. The earliest writings typically refer to civic ‘associations’ within ‘civil society’ rather than the more contemporary term ‘civil society organizations’.

  2. Net ODA. Available at: https://data.oecd.org/oda/net-oda.htm. Viewed 27 September 2016.

  3. A case lasting 9 years, for example, would yield three 3-year periods of decline. Thus, the count of three-year declines exceeds the number of distinct cases.

  4. There are two potential errors that are accounted for in the data, the first is that the ODA declines to zero, the second is that ODA declines to a negative number. One is added to all ODA values in the decay function to account for error 1. By doing this the equation avoids taking the natural log of 0, which results in a mathematical error. This means that in instances where ODA decline to 0 ODA will be calculated within the decay function to decline to 1 instead, thus capturing the amount of ODA decay that occurs while avoiding taking the natural log of zero. Error two was accounted for using similar logic to error 1, only instead of adding one in all instances where ODA declines to zero the calculation instead adds the value of the negative number plus one to all ODA values for the length of the decline. For instances if ODA declined to negative $1000 dollars over five periods of decline then $1001 dollars would be added to all five periods of decline.

  5. Databank.worldbank.org/data/download/site-content/OGHIST.xls. Accessed 6 Sept 2016.

  6. Our ongoing analysis of the causes of aid reduction, to be developed in a future article, indicates a strong correlation between level of violence and the incidence of aid reduction.

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Pallas, C., Anderson, Q. & Sidel, M. Defining the Scope of Aid Reduction and Its Challenges for Civil Society Organizations: Laying the Foundation for New Theory. Voluntas 29, 256–270 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11266-017-9891-8

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